Population Reference Bureau PRB Discuss A Live Interviews Online Site Powered by Forum One http://discuss.prb.org/ Sat, 07 Nov 2009 04:34:08 +0100 SyntaxCMS via FeedCreator 1.7.2 Population and Climate Change: What Is the Link? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3953/

For more about population and climate change issues, see:

Mark Montgomery, "Does Climate Change Threaten Our Cities?" PRB Discuss Online, Oct. 29, 2009.

Climate Change and Urban Adaptation: Managing Unavoidable Health Risks in Developing Countries (Webcast, 2009).

Leiwen Jiang and Karen Hardee, How Do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change (2009).

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Karen Hardee Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:00:00 +0100
Marriage Is Good for Your Health http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3952/

For more information on this topic, see:

Marlene Lee, "Aging, Family Structure, and Health" (2009).

Mary Mederios Kent, “Health Effects of Marriage and Other Social Relationships: Interview With Linda Waite” (2009). 

 

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Linda Waite Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:00:00 +0100
Does a Young Age Structure Thwart Democratic Governments? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3951/

A brief article on the relationship between age structure and the development of high-level democracy can be found at

 Richard P. Cincotta, "Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy"

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Richard Cincotta Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:00 +0100
Does Climate Change Threaten Our Cities? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3881/ Mark Montgomery, "Urban Poverty and Health in Developing Countries," Population Bulletin (2009).

Climate Change and Urban Adaptation: Managing Unavoidable Health Risks in Developing Countries (Webcast, 2009).

The website for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which Professor Montgomery mentioned, is at www.ipcc.ch.

Kenneth Lo:
*What has to happen to the dynamics of urban development, especially in places where the majority of settlement is informal, such that "preparedness" can actually be incorporated into physical/social planning?

*The impacts of climate change will be experienced differentially by various segments of urban population (i.e., the poor and disenfranchised). How might you frame the issue such that decision-makers align the interests of the poor and the wealthy?

*What's your take on climate change-induced migration (to/from/between cities)?

*What are the priority social responses to consider for cities?
Mark Montgomery:
You make an excellent point: Improving "preparedness" is precisely what governments at the municipal, regional, and national levels must focus on. The climate change scientists believe that extreme-weather events (hurricanes, flooding, storm surges, and the like) will take place more frequently and may well be more severe when they do occur.

To prepare for these risks, governments will need to: (1) make overdue investments in the basic urban infrastructure, especially in the areas of drainage, sanitation, and water supply, that the poor neighborhoods of their cities have lacked; and (2) form new partnerships with NGOs and relief and disaster preparedness agencies (such as the Red Cross/Red Crescent, and establish better links among international, national and regional weather forecasting agencies) so that actors and systems are in place to anticipate climate change hazards and respond effectively when these hazards materialize.

There is no inherent conflict between climate change adaptation in the cities of poor countries and the economic development agenda that has faced these cities. Much of what needs to be done in anticipation of climate risks has long needed to be done in any case.

In many cities---especially coastal cities---there are important business assets that lie exposed to climate-related risks. There is at least a possibility that coalitions will form in which the interests of the business community and the urban poor will be aligned. That has not often happened in the past, but we may see it beginning to occur in the future.
Masoud Kheirabadi:
Can Climate Change affect some cities positively? If yes, where? and how?
Mark Montgomery:
Climate change is such a complex phenomenon, and is expressed so differently from one place to another even within a given country, that I am sure there will be some cities for which the changes will prove beneficial at least to a degree. (Think for example about cities in what have been ice-bound polar regions, where new shipping lanes may open up.)

However, we need to recognize that the modern world is so inter-connected that changes in one place can have an influence on well-being in another place. At this point, knowing what we know today, it is awfully difficult to forecast what the net benefits might be for individual cities.
Megan Melamed:
In addition to climate change causing floods, droughts, and food security issues on increasing populations in urban areas, air quality in urban cities is also expected to decline due to climate change exposing billions of people to high levels of air pollutants and causing millions of seaths. How come this is rarely mentioned as a consequence of climate change and what impacts it will have on billions of people?
Mark Montgomery:
I agree with you that air quality is an under-appreciated factor in health. There is good agreement among the climate scientists that heat waves (magnified by the "urban heat island" effect) are likely to occur more often as climate change takes hold, and there is interesting research on the interactions between extreme heat and air pollution that makes the combination of the two more deadly. We are only beginning to see studies of cities in poor countries in which the joint effects of heat and pollution are examined---but I think more evidence is on the way.
Chinyere Fred-Adegbulugbe:
I live i Lagos, coastal city in Nigeria. how exactly will climate change affect a city like Lagos and what can the government and other stakeholders do to avoid a possible disaster.

2, Many wealthy folks and estate developers are buying up reclaimed land on which they are building estates and mansions. Is this safe. what safety precautions can they take to prevent problems in the future
Mark Montgomery:
I lived in Lagos myself and know exactly what you mean! There and elsewhere, it is very difficult for local governments in particular to prevent development from taking place in environmentally risky sites or in sites (such as mangrove swamps and wetlands) that serve as natural buffers in cases of storms and flooding.

I would like to see a concerted effort made to thoroughly educate the Nigerian press about the local risks anticipated from climate change and highlight the kinds of unwise development that will exacerbate these risks in the future. Not every country has such a loud and vigorous press, and although publicizing problems is only a part of the solution, it is an important part.
Epokor Michael Kudjoe:
Climate change is really a problem to deal with as it has great influence on health in our countries. Since cities are determined by population size it really goes on to affect the cities in the world especially the developing countries for that matter the sub Sahara countries with its high estimated growth. This is a problem, both natural and human factor contributed. Now how far can we go to curb its influence since there is no doubt that it really does threaten our cities?
Mark Montgomery:
We often tend to think of city population growth in poor countries as being mainly caused by migration, but in fact the greater part of that growth is due to natural increase---the excess of urban births over deaths. And an important percentage of urban fertility is unwanted or unintended (according to the reports of the women who themselves had those births). Voluntary and effective urban family planning programs could reduce urban fertility in a humane and respectful way, and in so doing would (over the long term) cause city population growth rates to fall.

Family planning is by no means *the* solution to the problems presented by climate change in poor countries, but we should think of it as another helpful tool in climate change adaptation, one that has a proven track record of effectiveness.
Adrienne Allison:
The pace of climate change is accelerated by an ever rising tide of people living in cities and towns, using more resources, burning more fuel etc From the numbers, it is clear that population growth and climate change go hand in hand. Why aren't we talking about slowing population growth whenever we atlk about climate change? Is population growth the "elephant in the lilving room"?
Mark Montgomery:
There are at least two sides to the population growth question.

For the most part, it is population and (more importantly) economic growth in rich countries that has produced the emissions that have resulted in global warming. Although population growth rates in rich countries are now generally quite low, it is possible that some climate-related benefits would ensue from further slowing of growth in these countries. But I doubt that the effects on future emissions would be very large. I would point you to the research on emissions by Brian O'Neill and colleagues for estimates of these effects.

In poor countries, where urban and national population growth rates have been higher, slowing of population growth will reduce the costs of adaptation to climate change, by reducing the number of people likely to be exposed to climate-related risks. That is a long-term proposition, of course, but not one that we should ignore. As I mentioned in answering another question here, we need to give more attention to *voluntary* urban family planning programs. Those programs are well-justified on equity and reproductive health grounds alone; and their effects on future population growth are an additional justification.
Ellady Muyambi:
Uganda is one of the countries projected to be affected by climate change if the current trend is maintained. Many people are moving from rural areas to urban areas and their final destination is usually slum areas. Yet, the government is not considering this as a problem. Eventually, drainage channels are always blocked due to poor waste disposal practices by these people. During periods of floods, these people suffer from diseases such as diarrhea, malaria, dysentry, cholera etc. What is your advice to the Ugandan government?
Mark Montgomery:
Urbanization is a chaotic and messy process, but one that history teaches us is ultimately essential to economic development. As I've mentioned in response to other queries, migration is typically not as important to city population growth as is urban natural increase; but migration is too important to neglect.

I would advise the Ugandan government to tackle directly the problems you've mentioned: improve drainage, unblock canals and storm sewers, reorganize collection of the solid wastes that currently clog these canals, and invest in better urban sanitation and water supply. These are all high-priority human development needs in any case, and climate change will only magnify their importance.
Purba Rudra:
Apart from climate change directly affecting cities, in terms of some of its population being more vulnerable, how much of an impact do you think environmental migration will have on cities? Though the destination for environmental/climate change migrants isn't necessarily the cities but a large number of them will end up in cities. How do you think will that impact the cities? Do yo think that will be a big issue in the future at all?
Mark Montgomery:
There is a lot of discussion these days about environmental migrants, but not a lot of evidence on how many such migrants there are today, to say nothing of the future. Most migration that takes place in poor countries is from one rural place to another, and doubtless much of that is motivated by what you could describe as environmental factors, in the sense that one agricultural site may be preferred to another on the basis of local climate, soil quality, and the like. How much more of this movement will be produced by climate change is hard to say. Big numbers are being tossed around by some people, but the scientific basis for them is very slim.

Even so, I think we should look closely at one large and especially fragile ecosystem---the drylands, where nearly 2 billion people live---and focus on the cities in this ecosystem, which account for about 45 percent of those 2 billion residents---as we consider the likely consequences of increasing water scarcities in the future. We might see rising costs of agricultural production in the rural parts of the drylands, which may in turn magnify seasonal, circular, and longer-term migration to dryland cities. The combination of rising agricultural prices and migration may put the labor markets of the urban poor under particular stress. I would keep an eye on situations like that.

We demographers do not do a very good job in measuring migration, which leaves us essentially clueless where environmentally-induced migration is concerned, but I am hopeful that in the future much more emphasis will be placed on migration.
Dr. Pankaj Thapa:
Climate change surely threatens our cities, and the worst sufferrers will be the urban poor. My question is what is the IPCC and other International organizations doing to save the vulnerable and economically deprived people living in the cities especially in Developing countries?
Mark Montgomery:
Great question. The IPCC began to take the social and economic implications of climate change more seriously in the last Assessment, and it seems that even more attention will be paid to these issues in the next Assessment. The urban poor in low-income countries ought to and, I believe, will figure centrally in these deliberations. Stay tuned!
Tope Akintunde:
I would like to know how you came about your projections on climate change in sub sahara africa.
For instance the variables and the methodolgy used.
Mark Montgomery:
The task of forming projections of climate change is being addressed by a very large group of climate and other geophysical and biological scientists. If you google "IPCC" you will be introduced to the research teams that have produced the forecasts, and will see what variables and methods they have employed.

There is certainly much more that needs to be known about the forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa specifically, and the next stage of the scientific conversation should (and no doubt will) involve more criticism and refinement of the global models by those with detailed local knowledge of such environments. Africa's geographers and physical scientists could make an enormously valuable contribution in connecting the global models to local realities.
Lanre Olusegun Ikuteyijo:
With the prediction that the city of Lagos, Nigeria will be a mega-city in less that 10 years and as incessant flooding continues to belie the enviable achievements of the present administration in the state, What is your advice to the people and government of the state in order to avoid the consequences of climate change, in the face of the upsurge in population?
Mark Montgomery:
My advice is to begin by (1) mapping in detail the poor neighborhoods of Lagos where flooding and other climate-related hazards already cause suffering and the loss of life and health. We know that flooding puts the young, women, and the elderly at special risk; and flooding is more damaging for the poor who live in homes too flimsy to withstand it.
(2) These maps of vulnerability (which might be produced via the upcoming census) should then be placed in the hands of the decision-makers at the municipal, state, and national governments who will need to make decisions about infrastructure investments, especially in the areas of drainage, solid waste collection (which if uncollected tends to clog canals and other drainage systems), sanitation, and water supply. (3) The investment needs also should be made known to the African Development Bank and other international agencies with greater resources. (4) To prepare for a future in which flooding and other extreme-weather events are likely to occur more often and with greater severity, new partnerships will need to be formed with the NGOs and relief agencies that can assist local governments in preparing for and responding to disasters.
Nidhi Mittal:
1. How do you see the role of urban agriculture in mitigating the impact of climate change and enhancing food security in urban cities?

2. Will mitigating rural to urban migration at source be a possible solution for urban world issues?
Mark Montgomery:
Urban agriculture is already important in giving some city residents a measure of food security, insulating them to a degree from market-induced variation in food prices. Development of green spaces within cities will be one of the strategies that can ease "urban heat island" effects and thereby affect one important aspect of urban health. In some cases, at least, development of urban agriculture could be compatible with the development of green spaces. But I will defer to the experts on urban agriculture (I am not one of them) for more on this point.

On migration, there is little evidence that movement can in fact be stopped "at the source" (apart from special cases such as China pre-1980) and more importantly, no good reason for doing so. People move in search of better standards of living and a better life in general, and to deny rural residents access to the city is to deny them that opportunity for betterment. Naturally, flows of in-migrants do complicate the task of urban management and governance, but we should put our emphasis on improving management and governance and encouraging growth of a system of cities, not on trying to prevent migration, which is a futile exercise in any case.

There's much talk these days about the role that international remittances play in national development, but we seem to have lost sight of the (presumably much larger) role played by urban-to-rural remittances and other economic benefits that internal migration brings for rural residents and rural areas. Fostering rural-urban connections is part of good economic development strategy. The 2009 World Development Report of the World Bank made this case very well, I think.
Ujah Oliver Chinedu:
Dear Mark, to what extent do you think climate change threats provides an opportunity for the development of sustainable cities in sub-Saharan Africa?
Mark Montgomery:
I would agree with you that climate change does present positive opportunities---the urban adaptation agenda will involve making investments in drainage, waste collection, and so on to safeguard the slums and other city neighborhoods that already live with climate-related environmental threats. These vulnerable areas have not received the infrastructure they need---but I am hopeful that as climate change seizes the attention of policy-makers, they will at last view the environments of the urban poor as deserving of urgent attention.
Ujah Oliver Chinedu:
Second question Mark, are there funds available (at the global level) for studying the impact of climate change in developing countries'cities?
Mark Montgomery:
Funds are beginning to be available for exactly this sort of research. Good urban climate adaptation research will require real partnerships to be formed between global researchers and local experts. In particular, sub-Saharan Africa has long had an unusually strong community of geographic researchers in and outside its universities; their talents will need to be tapped. There is also good physical science expertise in the region that will need to be joined to good social science---climate change research needs a healthy dose of both kinds of science.
Sarath Guttikunda:
Cities will be affected by Climate Change, but they are more threatened by the more current problems, such as air pollution, which has same roots as climate change, the fossil fuel burning, with immediate impacts of human health. When talking about cities, why is this side lined?
Mark Montgomery:
Another person in our discussion also raised the issue of urban air pollution, which I agree is an under-studied aspect of urban health. There are some excellent research reviews available.

I am beginning to see research on air pollution in developing-country cities---Wuhan (China's "oven city"), Shanghai, and New Delhi come to mind in addition to Mexico City and other Latin American cities (which have a rich tradition of scientific studies).
Kebede Kassa:
How can developed countries help developing countries address the issue of urban solid and liquid waste which contributes to global warming and climate change?
Mark Montgomery:
I would put this question differently. Some of the most important *consequences* of global climate change will be expressed in terms of more frequent and more severe extreme-weather events, especially flooding, storm surges, and the like. Poor (or non-existent) systems of urban solid waste collection cause drainage canals and other outlets to become clogged, which makes flooding worse. On these grounds alone there is a need for more attention to urban waste collection.
roger-Mark De Souza:
Could you address the issues surrounding climate change (sea level rise), urbanization, and coastal cities in small island developing states such as the Caribbean? What do you see as program and policy options for such islands?
Mark Montgomery:
The recent "underwater cabinet" meeting in the Maldives effectively drew attention to the most threatened of the small island states. Fortunately, the situation facing the Caribbean island states is not (currently) forecast to be quite that dire. In this region, there is still much to be done to safeguard the neighborhoods of the urban poor from the threats of flooding and (in some cases) landslides.

There will inevitably be cases in which some communities of the poor, living in highly threatened environments, will need to relocate. But relocation can be accomplished humanely, with full attention to the needs of the poor. In the wonderful journal Environment and Urbanization, one can find multiple case studies in which poor communities and governments functioned as partners in finding relocation solutions. I highly recommend the accounts in that journal, which would be instructive for the Caribbean as well.
Dr. Anima Sharma:
Climate change is a global phenomenon. The reasons are various and most of those are created by Man. But, unfortunately none of the man made efforts are globally effective. The damages have already been done now we can only think about the remedial or palliative treatment. My question is that if we stop even now and check the further depletion of the environment then how long will it take to improve the damages already done? Are those damages controllable and reversible or are those beyond our capacity and irreversible?
Mark Montgomery:
I am an economist and demographer, and therefore not well equipped to address the physical sciences issues of irreversibility that you raise. But as I understand it, there is a broad general consensus that where climate change is concerned, we cannot afford to ignore either mitigation (reducing emissions) or adaptation (dealing effectively with the consequences).
Kenneth Lo:
Re: your response to Fred-Adegbulugbe, can you cite any good examples of governments at any level or NGOs working on preserving/restoring ecological infrastructure (buffer zones, mangrove forests, etc.) specifically with mitigation in mind?
Mark Montgomery:
If by mitigation, you mean with the aim of reducing emissions, then I would suggest googling the 2009 Urban Research Symposium (a World Bank conference held in Marseille at the end of June) where a number of case studies on this general theme were presented. I recall seeing several Latin American cases, but do not at the moment have the details for you.
Tim Mock:
As the stresses of the climate crisis increase, human violence is expected to increase (See "Climate Wars" by Gwynne Dyer for one geopolitcal analysts viewpoint.). Do you expect the violence to be worse in urban or rural settings?
Mark Montgomery:
Since violence is a symptom of a more fundamental failure of governance, it is difficult to foresee whether climate change as such will result in greater violence in either urban or rural areas. Surely this depends on how governments and civil society respond and adapt to the climate change challenges. But I would direct you to the recent National Intelligence assessment carried out by the U.S. government for the thoughts of security experts on these matters. There is concern expressed about the possible consequences in dryland regions, where water scarcities are already a big issue and where it seems likely that climate change might intensify the competition over scarce agricultural resources.
Kenneth Lo:
The references indicate you've studied small and medium-sized cities as a critical and overlooked category of urbanization in developing countries. What are the challenges specific to these cities and towns, with respect to climate change and to urban health in general?
Mark Montgomery:
The needs of small and medium-sized cities are typically overlooked---but this is where (collectively) the vast majority of urban residents actually live, and these smaller places are generally short of technical expertise and managerial talents that would help them address needs in health and climate change. For instance, we hear a great deal about urban-rural imbalances in the distribution of public health personnel; but we hear much less about similar imbalances between large and smaller cities. Also, governments are decentralizing in many poor countries, and smaller cities typically lack the independent resource base and taxation systems that would allow them to sustain themselves in the absence of well-designed inter-governmental transfers. The shortages of resources that usually afflict small cities and towns are plainly evident in the levels of health in these places (with risks not unlike those of rural villages) and levels of poverty.
Kenneth Lo:
How does the lack of robust governments/structures in these small and medium-sized cities impact your work as a demographer? What efforts exist to ensure that both attention and resources are committed to these populations? Any good models? Thanks!
Mark Montgomery:
In general, we know very little about small and medium sized cities, which don't figure (by name) in the nationally-representative surveys by which we learn about demography, health, and the like. But in Latin America, several countries are making a concerted effort to get *census* data disaggregated and mapped for these smaller places, and that effort ought to be on the priority list for national statistical offices around the world. For climate change, health, and economic development in general, we need quantitative portraits of these smaller places, and usually it is only via censuses that we can get such portraits.

For additional information, see:

Mark Montgomery, "Urban Poverty and Health in Developing Countries," Population Bulletin (2009).

Climate Change and Urban Adaptation: Managing Unavoidable Health Risks in Developing Countries (Webcast, 2009).]]>
Mark Montgomery Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:00:00 +0100
The Fight to Stop Honor Killings http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3879/
Mary Chapman:
How can you change the mind set of a religous group.? It is not just individuals but their religious leaders who must take the lead in confronting this terrible crime. All counties must act and all governments must take responsibility to make sure the changes happen. Will this crime be defeated? One day perhaps but not without an acceptance by men that their women have rights.
How do you propose the recognition by governments the need to confront all honor crimes.?
Rana Husseini:
I believe that all religious leaders have a big responsibility within their own communities to address the issue of violence against women in general and explain how all religions call for the respect and equal treatment of women.

I am an optimistic person and I am hopeful that this crime will end one day. It will take some time because we have to work on changing people's attitudes towards these crimes and encourage more people to speak out against violence against women. And governments have a big responsibility to address violence against women and children and to keep it a priority on its agendas.
Richard Cincotta:
This is a broader question than you might be expecting. I'm married to an Indian woman who is an academic professional. Despite her training and accomplishments, I've noted that her brother has. from time to time, interceded without invitation into her financial and social lives and those of her sister's (often destructively, but always with "the sister, or family's well-being" allegedly the primary motivation). While much, much less serious than an "honor killing", to me it seems that he considers himself the traditional arbiter of family affairs -- as do other brothers in the extended family, vis-a-vis their sisters' lives. Do think this 'gendered license' is one aspect at the core of the honor killing problem? And if so, what specifically could be done, at the legal, social and familial levels, to deter the physical and psychological harm that "brother power" perpetuates on women?
Rana Husseini:
I think this is part of the patriarchal society that these women and men come from. Men are brought up to think they they have powers and control of their female relatives' rights. And because they think so, sometimes their control could lead to a so-called honor killing. Again, this is an issue that needs to be addressed from a broader manner and we have to encourage governments that have school text books that are filled with stereotypical images of women to work on it and improve women's images. In the meantime, focus should be also on teachers as well who are victims of the weak education system. So it is a long battle but things will also change eventually because women are going out much more to work because of the family's need for money. As one sociologist once told me, violence and killing of women will decrease before it increases, because of the changes that the world is witnessing on all levels and women going out to work and perform other activities.
Henry Tagoe:
Is there any link between religion and honor killing or this is purely within the traditional-cultural milieu. The phenomenon of honor killing is an ancient practice and to eradicate this call for holistic interdisciplinary approach. Education and female empowerment are the tools available to prevent such practice.
Rana Husseini:
I agree with you. There is no connection between religion and so-called honor killing. Most people kill because of "wrongful" cultural beliefs and traditions. And this phenomenon is ancient and occurred during the ancient civilizations times.
Jane Roberts:
What would have to happen at a very deep level make honor killings totally unacceptable? Would ending the climate of impunity help? And how would you end it?
Rana Husseini:
I believe we have to work on all aspects of the problem. Not just the lenient punishments. It is a comprehensive process that starts with improving education, to increasing the level of awareness to encouraging religious and community leaders to speak out to improving services to help women in need, amending laws that discriminates against women and continue to address the issue in the media and elsewhere in the society among school and university students.
Dr. Anima Sharma:
I am an Indian and to me the practice of Honour Killing is neither new nor difficult to understanding, though personally I am at a loss to imbibe this concept. But then this is the land where women of few caste groups perform ‘Jauhar’ to save their honour or commit ‘Sati’ with their deceased husband. ‘Jauhar’ and ‘Sati’ are voluntarily done by the females while Honour Killing is synonymous with the act of murder, where the male as well as the females both could be ‘assassinated’ by their own kinsmen and people of their own community. I think it is more prevalent in the societies where kinship networks are very strong and the people are egotistic. They associate everything with self-esteem and self-respect to an extent that that an individual becomes non-existent entity within that framework. Mostly, the causes of Honour Killings are related to women, land, money, power and authority. We can remotely mention the cases of the mass- suicides done by the people in grief or when they are deprived of something. I think, since the death is considered to be the ultimate loss, personally as well as socially, hence taking life either one’s own or anybody else’s could be associated with the highest level of emotional disturbance. The emotions override the feelings of physical hurt and people take it as a punishment to the culprit because he did not adhered to the rules and regulations and to themselves because they blame themselves for not being able to enculturize or socialize the person as per the socially prescribed norms.
I want to know that is this cocept of Honour Killing is associated with the orthodox ways of life only and what other types of behaviours and concepts are prevalent in the societies outside India?
Rana Husseini:
I think most of what you said could be the same inmost countries. But in the Arab region, men are not usually killed. It is very rare for a family of a female relative to kill a man (presumably her partner) because of the legal complications. The victim's family might refuse to drop charges and demand money instead. Also, they might want to revenge so most families try to avoid killing the man. Now on many occasion men do not exist because the murders are committed for financial or inheritance reasons or because the woman was a victim of rape, rumor, suspicion or incest.
Cletus Tindana:
Dear PRB,
Thank you for this opportunity. For me in Ghana, it's the first time I'm hearing of "Honour Killings". It sounds so strange and sad. May I know which regions of the the world this practice is most common? Are the governors of such countries/states aware? What is the human rights records in those countries like? Please do intensify the awareness!
Rana Husseini:
Hi dear

I believe the killing of women happens in all societies and is not restricted to one society or religion. Violence against women is an international phenomenon and one in three women is subjected to some form of violeence during her lifetime.
J Kishore:
Root of Honor killing is social system and religious scriptures that do not allow people (including gender) to have equal status. There is need of social reform that includes discarding old and orthodox system of inequality (Ref. The Vanishing Girl Child-J Kishore 2005).
Rana Husseini:
I think we need to always focus on moderate religious leaders and encourage them to address issues that are related to gender equality in their societies.
Françoise De Bel-Air:
Dear Rana,

Thanks for your courageous involvement in this issue.
I have a question regarding the legal punishment to so-called "honour crimes". For instance in Jordan, the Kingdom's modernity, promoted by its leadership, did not lead to amendment of the Penal Code in order to put such crimes under the label of first category murder. Considering the fact that the members of the royal family do not support such practices, how do you explain this legal inertia? Why did Parliament reject the amendment of the law? Also, how are those crimes tackled in other Arab states?
Françoise De Bel-Air, PhD.
Rana Husseini:
Changes in Jordan are happening. Although the law itself was not changed, we see more awareness among judges and criminal prosecutors regarding this matter. Now killers are getting tougher punishments and almost 10 days ago a court sentenced a man to 15 years in prison, the highest so far for killing a sister in the name of family honor. So there is hope, but we have to constantly work on it. On the other hand, most of the deputies are conservative and when the issue was up for debate in the late 1990s and the government then offered some amendments, it was done in the wrong manner and many deputies thought that we were backed by the west to destroy the morals of the society and sexually liberate women. And were immediately attacked and the draft bill was defeated. Most countries in the region have similar laws.
Ernest Nettey:
I never realized that so many women lose their lives to "honour killings"! Ms Husseini,from your research, which factors have you found to be important determinants of whether a particular woman is killed? Also, what makes "honour killing" more likely to happen in one country compared to another?
Rana Husseini:
Well women could lose their lives for several factors that includes becoming pregnant out of wedlock, being a victim of rape, incest, rumor or suspicion, marrying the man of her choice, taking to a stranger, being involved in an affair, gone missing from her home and sometimes for financial or inheritance reasons. There is no indicator of it happening in some countries over others.
Vijay Aryal:
What are the major causes of the 'Honour Killing'? Can we stop the prevalence of the very crime? What are the probable consequences of the honour killing and which forms of societies have been affected so far?
Rana Husseini:
Hi dear

I think I have answered your questions in the previous answers :)
OKPECHI FELIX-MARY UZOCHI:
The Universal Declaration of Human Rights, article 5 states that 'No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment'. Thus, my question is: Are the governments of these countries where Honour Killings are practised not signatories to the entire UN, 1948 declaration? If they are, what have they done to fulfill their aims as signatories to the declaration through the elimination of Honour Killings from sovereign states?
Rana Husseini:
I think that most countries in the world have signed and even ratified many conventions, but this does not mean that they will abide by it. There are many violations committed by countries on many levels though they signed many conventions. We need to encourage governments that signed to abide by what is in the convention and others who have not signed and ratified to do so.
thada bornstein:
Is there a recognition among people who work in your field that the struggles of women of all ages and ethnic backgrounds are connected to sexism (from society) and internalized sexism (that we as women have internalized and believe from having it put on us all our lives)? Sexism being defined (among other things) as females being somehow less than or unequal to males. Therefore honor killings are related to all the notions that women are "less than" or that their worth is connected to their productivity or looks or being a mother or wife or any of the standard "roles" of women. It is basic equality and personhood that must be fought for. All women must have decision-making authority for themselves, their lives, their families.
Rana Husseini:
I agree with you and there is recognition towards what you mentioned.
NIna Cummings:
Are there specific promising practices that you can identify that may have had some success in preventing honor killings? Where/what regions do they exist and what do you think were the key aspects to their success?
Rana Husseini:
I think that the campaign that was conducted in Jordan was a great successful story. There is also campaigns in countries such as Turkey and Pakistan that also helped raise awareness there. I have included these experiences in my book for people to read and learn from other countries' experiences, success and failures.
JUSTICE KANOR TETTEH:
I believe that this Honor Killings of mostly women all comes down to the concept of gender inequalities. Majority of people still do not see the importance of women and do not value women in our local homes but we come out to pretend that all is well. Highly educated people and even gender activist all sometimes face the problem of role strain and role conflict when they go back to their trditional or local homes. I believe that if we want to stop Honour killings then we must start nurturing our younger generations with good and correct moral values in schools, religious, and social gatherings.All over the world even in worse villages, children are hungry for school and they now spend about 80% of their time in school so if we are able to engage their minds with these values and concepts, we will be wiping out this Honour Killings more rapidly. We must emphasise on gender equality for both sexes at all times.

However my question is: How do we develop the idea of valueing human life to riches, honour and fame in the minds of people?

From Justice Tetteh
SS/PFL/06/0012
Rana Husseini:
We strengthen the values of human rights among these generations with the many ways I have mentioned earlier to combat this issue, which a comprehensive manner that deals with all aspects of life and the society, starting with school children, of course.
Rawan:
I am a Jordanian PhD student in the UK. For my research, I interviewed young adults who left residential care in Jordan. Many of whom come from 'unknown families'. From experience, I know that children and young people under this category are born out of marriage (through pre/extra marital relationships, sexual abuse of birth mothers). They children are either abandoned or possibly taken away by authorities to protect mothers from honour crimes. A young woman (Massara - fake name) amongst my participants managed to track down her birth mother's family, and the police station that handled her case. The mother was to be taken to prison until Massara was born, who was then taken away and placed in care homes. Massara had an arranged marriage through her care home, she agreed because she had no one. She was physically, sexually and emotionally abused by her husband. Later she ran away from him, as her care home (that arranged the marriage and convinced her to marry) refused to help her, since she was now 'a married woman who must return to her husband'. Desperate for help, Massara found her maternal uncle. She was urged not to find her father (the cousine of the mother) as he does not even know she exists.

I have a question and a comment - I would like to know how authorities handle these cases with the men involved, and also children born in these circumstances - who along with birth mothers - ultimately pay the price - as they are stigmatised throughout their life and considered 'children of sin', 'illigitemate children by law'- and later often left to fend for themselves. Perhaps their voices should be better heard. This would shed much light, and strengthen the cause of honour crimes. Unfortuantely I will not be there, but I would appreciate a reply if at all possible.
Rana Husseini:
Hi dear

I think what you have just said is a true story and most of the pregnancy that results from 'illegitimate" or extra-marital affairs end in social homes where they are raised without knowing who their parents are. The result is a sad story as the one you said. I agree with you that their voices should be heard and their stories should be told.
CJ Bahnsen:
Hi Rana,
Does your book include your own experiences or indirect accounts of honor killings in Iraq? Also, you listed that some women are killed simply for "talking to a stranger." I assume that especially applies to talking to a man outside a family's culture or religion, which leads me to my next question: Do you know of any incidents in Middle East where a woman has been killed for talking to an American soldier, or any other soldier from UN troops?
Rana Husseini:
Hi dear

Yes the book does include my experience and some stories that I have reported for The Jordan Times. There are also some stories and examples from Iraq. I have never heard of or read a story whereby a woman was killed for talking to an American soldier or UN troops. but it could happen.
Issa Almasarweh:
First, I want to thank Rana for her continued efforts on this unendurable issue. Second, I want to raise three points for those who believe that these terrible crimes are declining:

One, many of what is classified as female suicides are in fact homicides or honor killings.

Second, we need to find a more appropriate name for this type of crimes.

Third, is a question "How much of these crimes are related to incest and the attemps to cover up family sexual abuse?"
Rana Husseini:
Thank you very much for your encouraging words. I agree, these crimes are not on the decline and there are cases that could be forced suicide and accidental deaths that in reality are so-called honor killings. I believe that the term should be changed and that is why I call them so-called honor killing. And I do not have figures of incest.
Muhammad Aslam:
I belong Sindh, a province of Pakistan, where honor killing is on top scale every day two to four women and men killed under this shameful tradition. our justice system is slow, murderer get gaps and almost become free. Govt. does not honor international agreements and convention, as Beijing 95, ICPD and so many others. How pressure can be developed on govt. to apply aggreed agreements?
Rana Husseini:
i believe all countries should work on addressing domestic violence in a global perspective because if we pinpoint one or two countries we will face resistance.
Rune Bakken:
Honour crimes, deeply rooted in any country where the practice exists, presents difficult and convoluted legal, social and perhaps economic challenges.
Although Jauhar and Sati seems relegated to increasingly lower casts in India as society improves, the concept, and practice, continues in similar and higher casts and social classes across Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Arab world and certain countries of Africa, with a smaller number now also taking place in western societies as migrants carry their traditions to their new countries.
Albeit honour killings are the most extreme measure, social pressure resulting in honour suicide and community violence is symptomatic of male dominated, financially unequal, uncompromising and violent society, where the victims are normally not given real chances to defend themselves against allegations.

Given the convoluted and longwinded process of changing social perceptions and individuals' mindsets, perhaps through attention, transparency and reporting untoward these hideous crimes, how may the UN and other countries and societies contribute to ensure that focus is directed at improving women’s rights, in otherwise predominantly violent circumstances, where day to day needs and survival comes before ensuring that a functioning legal framework is indeed in place.

Secondly, what responsibility can religious leaders assume to discuss a practice that in its core does not align with the religion, nor benefit the stability or prosperity of society as a whole?
Rana Husseini:
As mentioned before, this is an issue that needs to be discussed from a global perspective and we have to focus on moderate religious leaders to speak out and explain the true meanings and values of all religions.
rakesh chandra:
I'm rakesh chandra pursuing my mphill from jnu new delhi. In acountry like india the concerned issue is of much importance now and then we hear news of this honour killing specially from north india. i would like to draw [to] your attention that those murdered include both male and female. in such a situation is it proper to say that these killings are related to gender disparity?
Rana Husseini:
I do know that both men and women are killed in some parts of India, Pakistan and Bangladish. But this is not the case in other countries were these crimes take place.
Kantroo Chaman:
Honor killing does no good to those societies, which practice it. But honor as such is not a rational concept. It is rather a sentimental issue which is historically outdated, illogical and intrinsically based in the belief that woman is sinful, wretched, source of temptation and fall which make her inferior in status as well as in religious standing. Add to this male ego and his personal convenience resulting from this position. Moral and legal systems are weak to give her sufficient support. Contrarily in these societies honor killing is justified as only moral and legal principle to guide them. Particularly when modern concepts of mainstream morality and legal system are no more than cosmetic in importance.
Under such circumstances the opponents of honor killing of women have to fight on more than one plain. And fighting against a problem on many plains needs a delicately formulated plan lest the thing backfires at some point.

What precautions are required to be taken to achieve success in this so called crusade?
How do we de-link the political and economic interests of the civilized world from the civilizing process?
Rana Husseini:
I believe the first part is answered. The second part I am afraid I did not understand what you meant by it. Sorry :)

For more on Rana Husseini and this topic see:

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    Rana Husseini Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:00:00 +0100
    Child Poverty in America http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3794/
    New state- and city-level data on U.S. children in poverty have just been posted to the Annie E. Casey Foundation’s KIDS COUNT Data Center website (http://datacenter.kidscount.org).
    J Kishore:
    Child poverty report is an interesting finding and challenges our concept of development. Indian children are also facing poverty that can be easily understood by the level of malnutrition. Planning commission of India reported that there are 17 million working children in India however, other reports stated that these numbers are highly underestimated. These children are actually suffering from poverty inspite of their working status. Now US government need to increase funding and change their strategy to handle child poverty. We are interested to learn more.
    William P. O'Hare:
    Comparing child poverty in the U.S. to that in developing or less developed countries is complicated. And it raises the question of whether poverty should be seen as an absolute concept or a relative concept. While many U.S. children who are deemed poor have more material wealth than poor children in other countries, the gap between the poor children and the middle-class children in the U.S. is enormous.
    Richard Cincotta:
    Why the disparity in spending given the likely dividends from investing in a cohort that will have bearing upon workforce productivity, international competitiveness, morbidity and its future costs, and the future crime rate? While poverty of the elderly is a serious social issue, it engenders none of these imperatives for investment. Is it only seniors' power to lobby that produces this differential in spending, or are there other factors impeding greater US investment in its own children?
    William P. O'Hare:
    I would certainly agree with you that there is a strong case to be made for investing in children in terms of the country's future and remaining competitive an an increasingly globalized economy. I don't have a completely satisfactory answer to why seniors get so much more assistance than children, but here are a couple of thoughts. First, despite the warnings of demographer Sam Preston in his PAA presidential address in the early 1980s, the disparity between federal spending on children and elderly is not widely known. A recent series of reports by the group First Focus (including one released this morning), has made this situation more widely known but still there has been little debate about the disparity because relatively few leaders seem to be aware of it. Certainly, the fact that seniors vote and have powerful lobbying groups such as AARP, makes cutting senior assistance difficult.

    It is noteworthy that prior to 1972, the poverty rate for the elderly was higher than that for children, but due in large part to government programs (social security, medicare, Supplemental Security Income- SSI), the poverty rate of the elderly has fallen while that of children has remained high. In 2008, the poverty rate for seniors (9.7%) was about half that of children (19.0%).
    John Morgan:
    Any data on how the anticipated "jobless recovery" will lengthen the duration of recession-induced poverty? In other words, will children newly impoverished by this recession have a longer stay in poverty than was typical in past recessions?
    And, what about chronic poverty? Any evidence that this recession will make it extremely more diffficult for those who were poor before the recession to get out of poverty? For poor kids, newly poor and chronically poor, it seems that the effects of the recession will be long-term, lasting far beyond the point where the economy has fully recovered.
    William P. O'Hare:
    Recently released estimates/projections from Isabel Sawhill and her colleagues at the Brookings Institution indicate that the child poverty rate in 2009 will be around 21% and their projections indicate child poverty rates will stay above 20% for the next ten years unless something is changed.
    Joy Francis:
    Financial resources are important for realization of economic, social and cultural rights for children, however more resources required. The question is what other resources are availabale for children and mechanisms are in place to ensure that these resources are being utilized to their maximum extent?
    William P. O'Hare:
    About 75% of means-tested benefits for low-income families in the U.S. are noncash benefits, things like food stamps, health care (medicaid and SCHIP), free school lunches, and housing subsidies, for example. However, for each of these programs many eligible families do not participate. The fact that many of these programs are run in isolation from each other, with separate application forms, eligibility criteria, and documentation requirements, discourages some eligible families from applying. Recent efforts in some places to make these programs available in one central location have helped.
    Sandra Yin:
    Which programs have been successful at helping children rise out of poverty?

    Which haven't? And why?
    William P. O'Hare:
    It is difficult to point to any one program that has had a major impact, but I think we saw a combination of programs all aimed as supporting the "working-poor" lead to a dramatic decline in child poverty in the late 1990s.

    Let me illustrate this with one quick example. Prior to 1996 when cash welfare (AFDC then TANF) were de-coupled from medical care, if a poor working mother (usually in a job without health insurance) needed medical attention, she often had to quite her job so she would become eligible for welfare and thus medical attention for her child. The expanion of Medicaid and the implementation of the State Child Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) in the 1990s, allowed those mothers to continue working while they got health care for their children.
    Henry Tagoe:
    The relationship between education and income and its effects on poverty are well documented. What can this current phenomenon of child poverty in America be attributed to – education, job opportunities (global financial crisis) or the dynamics of the society which has led to some behavioural change among the population. What is the correlation between socio-economic status and current child poverty? Are children from the lower income quintile becoming poorer or is the reverse.
    William P. O'Hare:
    The high child poverty level in the United States relative to other developed countries is closely linked to a lack of government supports for low-income families in the U.S. When one looks only at income from work, several other countries have child poverty rates about as high as that in the U.S. But most other developed countries provide much more extensive support for poor families, which dramatically lowers their child poverty rates.
    Issa Almasarweh:
    Is poverty rate higher among children living in households headed by single female parents?
    William P. O'Hare:
    The poverty rate is much higher for children living with single parents. In 2008, the poverty rate for children living in female-headed families was 43% compared to 10% for children in married-couple families.
    Rita Henley Jensen:
    How has the end of AFDC and the creation of TANF influenced the rising rate of poverty among children, especially those headed by unmarried women.
    William P. O'Hare:
    I think it is fair to say that the enactment of TANF in 1996 had some positive impact in the late 1990s, as the poverty rate for children in single-parent families fell. The impact of TANF was due partly to new requirements that welfare recipients work, but also because TANF provided more child care subsidies and other work supports to help single-parents meet their work and family responsibilities. Of course, this all took place in the context of a rapidly expanding economy in the late 1990s.

    Since 2000 I think the record is less clear, partly because the economy never regained the momentum it had in the late 1990s, partly because the people left on welfare after 2000 were those with the most barriers to entering the workforce, and partly because in the post-2000 era, the government did not continue the expansion of programs to help working-poor families.
    Joy Francis:
    what are some of the national initiatives to deal with Child poverty?
    William P. O'Hare:
    In the late 1990s, the British government set a goal of cutting their child poverty rate in half over ten years. They did not meet the goal of cutting it in half, but their concerted effort did reduce child poverty.

    The targeted goal approach has been adopted by a few states (and cities) in the U.S., but it has highlighted some of the short-comings of our poverty measure which are documented in other responses, namely that a lot of the things governments do to reduce hardship (provide food stamps, housing subsidies, medical care) do not affect our poverty rate because our poverty measure only looks at cash income.
    S. CLAUDE:
    What can we do to prevent or to put an end to that poverty
    William P. O'Hare:
    I am not sure we can end child poverty in the U.S., but there is clear empirical evidence that we can reduce it. The child poverty rate fell from 23% in 1993 to 16% in 2000... a remarkable decline in a relatively short period... the child poverty rate is now 19%. It is also clear that most other developed countries have child poverty rates much lower than ours.

    The decline in child poverty during the late 1990s was due to a strong economy which provided jobs for most people. But the decline was also due to the fact that a number of government assistance programs to help low-income working families were initiated or expanded during that period. This includes things like expanded EITC program in 1993, the implementation of the State Child Health Insurance Program in 1997, and an increase in the minimum wage in 1997. These trends are discussed in more detail in my monograph entitled "Trends in the Well-Being of America's Children," published by PRB and Russell Sage Foundation around 2003 (available by calling PRB at 202-483-1100).
    Antonio Cafoncelli:
    Would you please discuss the reasons for child poverty. In my judgement is the structural crisis of capitalism, with the growing and massive inequality in income distribution as the main cause of child poverty. Just 1% of the top of our population has the wealth of the 95% of the rest of population. The supply side economics and the Milton Friedman glorified free Market is a delusion. There is a need for more government intervention and extend, intesify programs such as SCHIP, with massive investment in health, education and housing for poor children .This intervention of the state is necessary to correct the structural and foundational fallacies of capitalism(Maynard Keynes).It is time to state the truth and expose the total defeat of neoliberalism and free market policies to paliate or diminish poverty in America, and particularly in children. Please comment on this and I would love to discuss the failure of capitalism with you.
    William P. O'Hare:
    I am not sure that capitalism per se is the main culprit here. Many countries in Europe that would be considered capitalists countries have low child poverty rates. But as you point out, the U.S. system has done much less to help children in poor families than other capitalist countries. So maybe it is the American brand of capitalism rather than capitalism itself.
    Martin Plaut:
    How is child poverty defined and how does the US data compare with other developed countries?
    William P. O'Hare:
    The official U.S. poverty definition compares a family's cash income to a set of income thresholds to determine if the people in the family are poor or not. The thresholds, which vary by family size, were developed in the 1960s and updated every year to account for inflation. The threshold for a 4-person family in 2008 was $21,834. A National Academy of Science study in the mid-1990s outlined a number of ways in which the poverty measure should be updated and improved. Legislation has been introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives (HR 2909) and the Senate (S 1625) to update the poverty measure.

    The child poverty rate in the United States is much higher than most other developed countries. About 20% of children in the U.S. are poor compared to less than 5% in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway. A recent OECD study shows that while the U.S. has the second highest average income among the 30 countries in the study, it has the 4th highest child poverty rate. The only three countries examined in the study with a lower child poverty rate were Poland, Mexico and Turkey
    Gregory Brown:
    How effective is the EITC in reducing the child poverty rate?
    William P. O'Hare:
    There are two ways of answering this question. First since the official poverty measure does not take taxes into account (and Earned Income Tax Credit - EITC-- is a tax program), the income poor working families receive from EITC is not counted in calculating the official poverty rate. Second, if the income from EITC were counted as income, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates 2.6 million children would have been lifted out of poverty.

    It is worth noting that the total amount the Federal government spends on on EITC (about $50 billion in 2008) is much larger than that spent on what is often viewed as the main cash welfare program for poor families, TANF ($18 billion).
    Stephanie Geller:
    (1) The 2008 ACS child poverty rates just came out today and showed declining child poverty rates in a number of states (though these declines were not always statistically significant). Given the current economic crisis, what may be behind these numbers?

    (2) We are concered that the size of the ACS sample is not large enough to produce reliable estimtes of child poverty for many areas in our state, even if multi-year averages are used. What are the chances that the sample size will be increased, given that we will all have to rely exclusively on ACS numbers from now on?
    William P. O'Hare:
    It is important to recognize that the poverty rates in the 2008 ACS reflect income in 2007 and 2008. When the data for the 2009 ACS come out, the child poverty rate is likely to top 20%.

    I think there is growing momentum for increasing the ACS sample size. I understand funding for such an increase is likely to appear in the Census Bureau's FY 2011 budget request.

    It is also worth noting that increasing the sample size is not the only approach to producing more reliable local estimates from the ACS. If the Census Bureau could increase the response rates, that would have the same effect as increasing the sample size. Right now the Census Bureau sends out about 3 million ACS surveys every year, but only gets about 2 million returned.
    Cliff Cook:
    Given widely acknowledged shortcomings in the definition of poverty, is this a good measure of poor children in this country?
    William P. O'Hare:
    While the shortcomings of the current poverty measures are well-documented, I think it is reasonably good at identifying a group of families in need and at identifying recent short term changes in need.
    Jeremy Haynes:
    How else can governments focus on eliminating child poverty besides a focus on social expenditure of health and education?
    William P. O'Hare:
    I think one of the most important things government can do is provide support for low-income working parents.... things like good quality child care, and medical care for their children. The expansion of those types of programs in the last half of the 1990s helped reduce child poverty.
    Nora Sjoblom Sanchez:
    I work on both policy and practice issues with children, and produced two Kidscount reports for the Casey Foundation over the past decade. Although you are primarily addressing the issue of our nation's crisis of child poverty, I am struck by a glaring need to address our system's lack of responsiveness to the plight of children from racial and ethnic minorities in our child welfare system - aren't they disproportionately represented in your statistics? What supports are available to educate child protection professionals to address the needs of this particularly disadvantaged population, or to develop a capable workforce to help this population? What organizations can help provide support or service in this regard at the local level. This situation is particularly dire in the state of Massachusetts.
    William P. O'Hare:
    It is clear that children of color make up a disproportionate share of the child welfare population, and this is a system that it underfunded almost everywhere in the country. And it is linked to poverty in two ways. Children in poor families are more likely to end up in the child welfare system and children who age out of foster care are likely to be poor as adults.
    Joy Francis:
    What is the role of child budgeting in child poverty?
    William P. O'Hare:
    I am not sure what you mean by child budgeting?
    Jeremy Haynes:
    What method is best suited for measuring budgetary allocations towards children and child poverty?
    William P. O'Hare:
    Getting precise figures for budget allocation devoted to children is difficult for a couple of reasons... just getting data on expenditure is often difficult, especially at state and local area. Furthermore, many programs serve both adults and children and it is difficult to break out the children's portion.
    Sharon Simone:
    What is the single best approach to lifting US kids out of poverty?
    William P. O'Hare:
    Helping low-income working parents balance their work and family responsibilities and making low-income workers get a family-supporting wage. Three-quarters of children in poverty have at least one parent in the workforce. Supporting working parents through programs like EITC has received strong bipartisan support.
    Barb Wollan:
    You've explained that in the U.S., our definition of poverty does not take into account the impact of gov't assistance programs, which increase a family's well-being while not raising their position in relation to poverty. In other countries, is the impact of gov't assistance factored in? I'm horrified at our position compared to other countries, and wonder if poverty is being measured differently elsewhere.
    William P. O'Hare:
    The most common definition of poverty in other developed countries is income below 50% of the median income in the country and it is my understanding that the share of benefits that are cash benefits is usually higher in other countries.

    However, it is pretty clear that U.S. children trail those in other countries in a numbers of ways beyond income. A recent study of OECD countries by Johnathan Bradshaw, at York University in Great Britain, combined a large number of indicators of child well-being into an overall index, and the U.S. came out next to last of the 21 developed countries examined.
    Sharon Simone:
    Who REALLY speaks for children at the Policy level...not who is supposed to but do they REALLY hava a voice? Seniors now do on many fronts...
    William P. O'Hare:
    While voices for children in Washington are nowhere near as plentiful or as powerful as those for seniors, there has been a growing present in DC over the past 10-15 years. A relatively new organized called First Focus has done a great job of using data to get policymakers' attention for children's issues. And the Children's Defense Fund has been around a long time. Recently, a number of children's groups have joined together to form the Children's Leadership Council to give children a more organized and powerful voice in DC.

    Also, Voices for American Children and the KIDS COUNT network that have both been around for more than 20years often provide a voice for children at the state level.
    Nora Sjoblom Sanchez:
    Thank you for your reponse on my question -but with regard to part 2 of the issue - are you aware of government or private foundation support available to these children (of color) and to assit in educating child protection professionals to address the needs of this especially vulnerable population i.e.through culturally appropriate training, or expanding relevant workforce/educational supports? So many of these children are facing virtually hopeless lives - and fostering a cyle poverty due to racial and ethnic background.
    William P. O'Hare:
    A number of foundations including the Annie E. Casey Founation, Casey Family Services, and Casey Family Program focus on improving the child welfare system. Having said that, the problems in the child welfare system are long-standing and difficult.
    Missy Warrens:
    I believe that the TANF programs and programs like it help those who truly want that help. So, how can we encourage low-income mothers and low-income families to see Jobs and Family Services and other programs as an OPPORTUNITY TO better themselves? I know that since funding for transportation and child care has been cut parents have had to stop going to some free programs such as GED, work hours, EFNEP classes, and other programs. The decline in the economy has cut the ability of these programs to work.
    William P. O'Hare:
    You are right that many work support programs are being cut just as people need them more. Given the budget calamity facing many states (and the U.S.), I am not sure what can be done about this, except fighting to save programs on the margins.

    I believe most (but probably not all) low-income families want to work. But many of them need supports to help them get and maintain jobs, and I think it is in the best interest of the country to make sure parents working at low-wage jobs have sufficient resources to take care of their families. This may mean wage subsidies, health care, and other benefits from the government.
    Missy Warrens:
    I see the problem of child poverty as a workforce problem for the parents here in Southeastern Ohio. Parents do not have good life skills, budgeting, retaining a job, education, work ethic to pass on to their children. Therefore child poverty will increase ... so what can we do to help parents obtain skills to better themselves? Programs that are available - I do not see working or are to lenient in their appropriation of services. So second question how do we fix that?
    To bring back up the newly unemployed...due to lay offs and downsizing many of them have a problem understanding the system because they are have never had to use it.
    William P. O'Hare:
    See the answer to Miss Warrens' question.
    Joy Francis:
    Child budgeting is an attempt to examine what resources government is allocating to programmes that benefit children, and whether these programmes adequately reflect the needs and rights of children. The question is: Are the resources aimed specifically at children or resources are identified in other social initiatives?
    William P. O'Hare:
    I think there is an increasing trend to use data-based budget allocations that use a more rational approach to allocating resources... so child budgeting fits neatly into this frame. However, the trend is slow, and uneven. As we all know, politics often gets in the way of rational decision-making.
    Jeremy Haynes:
    Would you consider the US approach to tackling child poverty a suitable model for developing countries to follow?
    William P. O'Hare:
    Probably not... The U.S. approach has not worked very well.
    For more information on child poverty in the United States:

    "Poverty Is a Persistent Reality for Many Children in U.S.," by William P. O'Hare, www.prb.org/Articles/2009/ruralchildpoverty.aspx

    "2009 KIDS COUNT Data Book Shows 900,000 More Children in U.S. Living in Poverty," www.prb.org/Articles/2009/kidscount2009.aspx

    "Children in Immigrant Families Chart New Path," by Mark Mather, www.prb.org/Publications/ReportsOnAmerica/2009/childreninimmigrantfamilies.aspx]]>
    William P. O'Hare Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    World Population: 7 Billion on the Horizon http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3724/
    Geoffrey Gilbert:
    New research suggests that fertility has reversed course in some developed countries. Is anything similar happening in the developing countries, and if so, should we be worried?
    Carl Haub:
    Fertility in the low birth rate developed countries does appear to have "bottomed out" and is rising again in some but remains at low or very low levels. Thus far, there have been a few cases of modest increases in the former USSR "Stans" countries but, generally, no one expects any large increase. It could ultimately happen when some of those countries also decline to very low levels.
    rakesh chandra:
    is it still relevant to talk about population growth given the fact that problem lies more in resource allocation than population growth ?
    Carl Haub:
    Your point is well taken except we do have to keep in mind that there remains a large amount of population growth in many countries. Sub-Saharan Africa will certainly add more than a billion before growth stops and even India could reach two billion despite having a moderately low birth rate. So, numbers are still an issue.
    Diego Iturralde:
    Whilst most of the developed world is faced with declining fertility rates below replacement which poses certain challenges. In sub saharan africa there seems to be a thinking that tries to maintain fertility above replacement in order for there to be sufficient workforce, to care for the aged amongst many reasons. What challenges does this present in light of the world population reaching 7 billion and what is the future for Africa if such fertility trends prevail?
    Carl Haub:
    I think the last concern Africa has is an insufficient labor force but rather too many untrained people entering the labor force year. In most countries, Africa would seem to already have enough people to develop if economic opportunities were there. But the lack of investment and widespread corruption would seem to preclude that.
    JA Gavinha:
    Dear PRB,
    Some of the figures provided seem a bit difficult to understand, given the data provided. For instance, despite much higher rates of natural increase than the US, the population of Brazil is expected to increase by only 12% over the period 2009-2050, versus 43% in the US.
    Are there other variables considered, such as long term changes affecting natural increase and migration? Don't you think the weight given to migration, especially in these changing economic conditions, is exagerated?
    How it is expected such a decline of population in Spain, considering its positive natural increase and the very high rate of in-migration?
    Thank you.
    Carl Haub:
    The difference between the U.S. and Brazil is primarily due to migration. Will migration to the U.S. continue? In the long run, I would think it definitely would as the "pull" factor of higher incomes in the U.S. will always be there.

    The projection for Spain assumes little long-term migration and, with a total fertility rate below 1.5, Spain will not have positive natural increase for much longer.
    Josephine:
    1.WHAT DO YOU THINK HAS LED TO THE DECLINE ON HIV\AIDS PREVALENCE IN AFRICA.
    2.HOW IS THE SPACING. GIVE US A BRIEF
    James Gribble:
    According to the 2009 World Population Data Sheet, HIV prevalence has decreased from 5.7% in 2007 to 5.0% in 2007/2008. Prevalence figures represent the percentage of the population that is estimated to be infected with HIV at a specific point in time--it is not the same as incidence, which is the number of new cases estimated during a specific time interval.

    The decline in prevalence could be due to several factors. Many of the older estimates of HIV prevalence in African countries have been recognized as being too high and the historic estimates were never recalculated, which means that the baseline figures are artificially high.

    Also, without access to treatment, people living with HIV/AIDS may have died and are no longer in the population, which means that they do not contribute to either the numberator (people infected with HIV) nor the denominator (the total number of people, in this case, between ages 15 and 49).

    Another factor contributing is that prevention programs are having the desired effect and fewer new cases of HIV are occurring; although these cases contribute to the prevalence, if the number of new cases is fewer than deaths, then prevalence will decrease.

    If you look at the data sheet, you will see that the estimated prevalence in many countries has gone down, but has also increased in some countries. For a more comprehensive view of what's going on with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, it would be useful to look at UNAID's annual report.
    Meskerem Bekele:
    Yes HIV prevalence in Africa is going to be decline. I think this is because of giving more attention and gives awerness for our society. But in FP I don't think. If i take myself as an example I didn't give my ears or they didn't speak loudly for me about FP for the last years. But one year ago and know I am I start thinking and worriwd about our population density and I started to discussed from my friends about FP. I have tried to use this issue as a programe.
    - So do you think that we African's did about FP effectively?
    - who is going to be an action taker about FP issue? government? NGO? or each families?
    we know that using contraseptive is one of the tools for FP. But many womens complained about the side effect of these contraceptive methods. Yes I know all good things also have its owen side effect but do you think that one kind of contraceptive method is suitable for the other women? do you think that health professionals advising these women?
    Thank you for your information about world population data sheet and the others.They gave me too much input for our radio program.
    James Gribble:
    Thanks for your questions...they raise some important issues about getting information to policymakers, media, and the general public about the importance of family planning. It is interesting that what got your attention was thinking about population density, and perhaps the link between population growth, the environment, and food security--and they are all interrelated. And it is great to hear that through your interest, you are becoming a champion for family planning, which is linked to economic growth, better health, and better opportunities for the future.

    There has been a lot of attention put on family planning in many African countries. Many donors are putting more and more attention on increasing political commitment, funding, and access to services in African countries. In Ethiopia, work with community health workers is increasing access to services, and we can see that it makes a difference--prevalence has gone up tremendously in the past few years.

    But there is no magical combination to make family planning programs work. It does require political commitment, as has been seen in Rwanda in recent years; it takes services and commodities, which requires funds; it takes communications efforts to get positive messages out about benefits of smaller families, the health benefits of birth spacing, and the economic benefits of slower population growth. I think it requires a concerted effort with each sector playing a part: government, NGOs, community members, the commercial sector, media.

    Regarding side effects of family planning methods--there are many different types of methods--hormonal, barrier, fertility awareness, permanent. Some women are better suited for certain methods, which is why good counseling and follow up are important. If a woman has problems with a certain method, she should return to her provider so that she can get a different method that responds better to her body and lifestyle.

    Women and couples should be able to decide on the timing and spacing of pregnancies and birth. Family planning programs are designed to help achieve this important goal. As you can tell, this is something that I could write on and on about. I hope that you will go to the PRB web site and take a look at some of the publications we have put out in recent years that focus on why family planning makes sense for better health and wellbeing (www.prb.org).
    Adhikar Dhakal:
    Will there be a law or a rule enforcing how many children a couple can bear?
    James Gribble:
    Now that is a straightforward question! And I think it has a straightforward answer--no. Who would promulgate such a law? How would it be enforcable? And who would support it?

    The decision to have children is very personal and should be respected. Historically, large families were important for economic and social security reasons. Although the world has changed, people have different reasons for having the number of children they have.

    But many women end up having more children than they want, and many women do not want to get pregnant, but do are not using an effective contraceptive method. Perhaps a better alternative to a law or rule is to increase access to and knowledge about family planning, work to empower women so that they have more say in decisions about family size, work with men to be more constructively involved in fertilty decisions, and work with policymakers to enact policies that support well designed and implemented programs in health, education, and economic growth. I think that the solution is not is a heavy-handed law, but rather in empowering people with the tools, skills, and services they need to decide for themselves.
    Tope Akintunde:
    a.)What are the factors responsible for the rapid population growth all the over the world?
    b.)Despite the awareness and the use of contraceptives in the developed countries especially US, what do you think is affecting the increase in the teenage pregnancy and birth in the US?
    Linda Jacobsen:
    a.) Rapid population growth in less developed countries is due to high birth rates and a young age structure. In more developed countries experiencing population growth, immigration plays an important role. In the U.S., replacement level fertility and immigration both contribute to population growth.

    b.) Part of the increase in the teen birth rate in the U.S. is due to an increase in the share of teens from high fertility subgroups such as Hispanics and immigrants from high-fertility countries. Some data also indicate the teen birth rate is up due to a slight increase in sexual activity, a decrease in the use of contraception, and continued decline in abortion rates.
    Nir, F.:
    what is your definition of poverty?
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    Because poverty may represent different things in different countries and the values of international currencies vary, it is difficult to come up with a measure that is comparable internationally. The World Bank uses several measures of poverty, including the distribution of income within countries, which is just as telling as the national average.

    The World Bank measure we used on PRB's 2009 World Population Data Sheet is based on the percentage of a country's population that lives on less than US $2 a day-- calculated as purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP is the amount of a country's currency required to buy the same amount of goods and services in a country's domestic market as a U.S. dollar would in the United States. The World Bank also estimates the percentage of a country's population living on less than US $1.25/day.

    These estimates are based on surveys and other information about consumption and income gathered from each country.

    The poverty report can be found at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/WDI08supplement1216.pdf. See the World Bank's World Development Indicators for more information.


    Vijay Aryal:
    The world is trying the best for reducing the fertility and mortality rates in case of the developing countries whereas it has been a matter of concern to promote the level of fertility among the industrialised countries. In this context, how would the control of population growth be remarkable at this juncture of reaching at seven billion population?
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    We are on track to reach 7 billion before the end of 2011, and will likely add another 2 billion by 2050. These projections assume fertility will continue (or start) to decline in developing countries with high fertility today.

    But couples in high-fertility countries need access to family planning services and information for fertility to decline further. There is currently a great unmet need for these services--an estimated 200 million women want to control the timing or number of their pregnancies but are not using an effective method of family planning.

    The developed countries with very low fertility may or may not increase their fertility levels in the next few decades, but this will not have a great impact on world growth.
    M.S.Makki:
    It is a dilema position. The birth rate in developing countries still high due to traditional demographic behaviour, and also high in some developed countries due to exagerated freedom of teenagers. Do not you think it is time to think hard and work on strengthening religious moral and attitude to abondone false traditions and control birth to be only through marriage ties?
    James Gribble:
    Thanks for an interesting question. To answer it, I'm going to step back to the proximate determinants of fertility framework, which indicates that fertility is a function of age at marriage, contraceptive use, sterility, abortion, and postpartum insusceptibility. In many developing countries, many young women are married at early ages and have limited access to family planning. These two demographic behaviors are driven to a large extent by culture--certainly early marriage is, and in many places, social pressures to start childbearing as soon as the young woman is married is also a cultural force to be addressed. Young women often lack access to family planning and are socially encouraged to have many children within marriage. Are these the types of false traditions that you are referring to that contibute to higher fertility among young women?

    In many of the places where young women marry at young ages and are encouraged to have many children, religion is also one of the dominant forces that shapes demographic behavior. I am not clear if your issue is early childbearing, which has a lot of adverse effect on health and future opportunities, or early fertility outside of marriage. Regardless, the risk factor for adverse health outcomes is the woman's age.

    I am not an expert on adolescents, but the attempt to constrain some behaviors may have a counterproductive effect. Perhaps programs that focus on youth need to start at an age that helps shapes their attitudes and values so they make good choices. Some will become sexually active--that's a fact of life; but when they have necessary information and access to services, they are better equipped to avoid adverse outcomes, such as unplanned pregnancy, HIV, and sexually transmitted infections.
    charlie teller:
    Concerning continued rapid pop growth in in LDCs, the significantly lowering fertility [is] found mainly in the urban and educated classes, so that those disparities within countries are also ... growing.
    Thus the youth bulge will be greatest in urban areas, where jobs for youth are scarce. Can you contrast the potential positive demographic "dividends" of this urban youth bulge (eg., more female education, later marriage, technological innovation, etc.), as well as the usual negative ones?
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    You bring up some good points. Countries have an opportunity to benefit from a rapid and substantial decline in fertility -- the "demographic dividend"-- because there are more working-age people to support dependent-age people (the very young and very old). This may have helped South Korea's rapid economic growth in previous decades. However, reaping this dividend requires a skilled, educated labor force and favorable political and economic conditions.

    Where there are not enough jobs for youth entering the labor force, educational levels are low, and the goverment is ineffective, there is no "dividend." Often there is widespread unemployment and underemployment, and as you point out, this is often a greater problem in urban areas.

    John Bermingham:
    Hi, Carl, Mary and others. If appropriate for thia discussion please explain that UN close in projections are like PRB's but not for 2050 because...
    Also, that UN global high and low are very unlikely since they assume every nation follows its high projection every year for 40 years (or low for 40)and this is totally unlikely.
    Carl Haub:
    Hi John,

    The projected 2050 population on the data sheet is necessarily different from the UN since we use a variety of sources (including some of our own projections) such as official national projections of countries where available. We don't know where it's going end up until we add it up! The data sheet's 2050 population is 271 million higher than the UN but half of that difference is accounted fior by our higher projection for India.

    Of course, all countries are not all going to follow any variant of the UN but I think it's practical to use a uniform assumption within each variant. That way, at least one readily knows what is being assumed. It's also obviously possible to select countries from different variants and come up with your own total. One, might, for example feel that the medium variant is too optomistic for Africa, too pessimistic for some other countries, etc.
    Craig:
    The trend between increased economic development and lower fertility is pretty well established. However, a recent study published in Nature showed at very high levels of the Human Development Index, fertility actually begins to increase again. Do you have any thoughts?
    Carl Haub:
    Craig, I have to be frank and say that I did see that article and was a little puzzled why such a simplistic attempt to explain fertility trends was attempted. A country's birth rate is the result of a complex group of influences, such as governments' support of young families, the social acceptance of childbearing outside of formal marriage, the labor market, and so many more. Factors that influence fertility in different countries do have some commonality but also vast differences. One of the faster rates of fertility increase in Europe is in Russia which has a fairly low income level. That's apparently due to the government's recent offer of $9,000 for the birth of second and subsequent births.
    Craig:
    What are your thoughts on future population projections as they relate to environmental sustainability and resource constraints? There has been increased violence and unrest surrounding growing food and water scarcity, especially in many African countries. How will these issues be affected by the projected population increases primarily in developing countries?
    Carl Haub:
    While no one predicts such things, the pressure will certainly be there. What, for example, will happen when Uganda approaches 75 million or 100 million? People will have had to have moved to towns and cities seeking some form of income. I would imagine that could lead to considerable unrest.
    Dave Plane:
    I have two questions that I'd be interested in the panelists thoughts about...

    1. What do you think the effects of the current global economic slowdown has had -- and will have in the future -- on world population growth?

    2. The latest data sheet shows Mexico with a TFR of 2.3, the USA at 2.1. Will Mexican fertility follow the Spanish model and drop below that of the U.S.? If so, how soon until they are equal and how much below might it go? (Of course there will still be substantial population momentum due to young age structure.)
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    First, the global economic recession is likely to have a temporary effect on both fertility and mortality that could slow population growth, especially in the poorest countries. But it is not likely to have a big long-term effect on world population growth.

    Concerning Mexico's future fertility levels, I don't see that it will necessarily follow Spain's model and fall to very low levels. However, with Brazil's fertility now the same or slightly below that of the US, it would not be surprising if Mexico's TFR fell to 2 children per woman or below within the next decade. Of course, the US TFR may fall as well.
    The UN projects that Mexico's TFR will be 1.85 by 2025.
    Mike Blackmon:
    How long will it take for the world's population to double?
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    Current projections don't show world population doubling. Long-range projections show a leveling of growth in the second half of this century.

    However, if the world's current growth rate of 1.2 percent continued for at least 58 years, world population would double.
    Carl Haub:
    Well, doubling would suggest that it would approach 14 billion at some point. As risky as it is, I'd predict that won't happen but that growth may end at somewhere around 11 billion and possibly not until the next century.
    Mahmoud:
    Why we do not concentrate on productivity specially agricultuer, to insure good nurtition?
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    You might want to look at some of our publications on nutrition and to look at the work done by the International Food Policy Research Institute and other groups working on agricultural productivity issues (http://www.ifpri.org/)
    C. Norwood:
    Since the turn of the 20th century population scientists have been sounding the alarm on population growth and its consequences for national economies, national security, the environment, and gender inequities and yet the world population steadily growths.
    So, just what is an ideal world population size and why that number? Additionally, what is the goal -- is it to stabilize population size?
    Carl Haub:
    The question of ideal size comes up frequently and, of course, can never really be answered given the huge number of variables. However, Joel Coen did publish a book collecting many estimates of how many people the Earth might support and an average of all of those, as I recall, was around 11 or 12 billion.
    Cletus Tindana:
    Thank you PRB for this opportunity. I would want to enquire on the reliability and accuracy of some of the data that is presented to the world from developing countries. The organisation in which I work runs a DSS (demographic surveillance system) and we tend to see more accurate and reliable data and when this is compared to other districts of similar population characteristics, ours most often tend to be different. e.g comparing fertility rates tend to be very different. What are the main sources of most of this data represented in most developing countries.
    Carl Haub:
    The underlying sources are, of course, censuses but data availablity has improved greatly, beginning with the World Fertility Surveys. Today we have many surveys such as the Demographic and Health Surveys and many others that provide good estimates of a variety of demographic measures. Some developing countries do have good registration of births and deaths while India has a Sample Registration System that is likely much like your DSS.
    Geoffrey Gilbert:
    Is there any way to identify the most important reasons why fertility has fallen so low in the industrialized countries? People mention various factors, but it seems they are mainly speculating.
    Carl Haub:
    The reasons can vary a great deal by country but a fairly constant thread is economic: the actual state of the economy and the confidence couples have in it. The fact that buying or renting a house requires a full-time permanent job, not a temporary one (a problem in Italy). And there is an elusive, not easily measured, factor such as a change in young people's expectations and tastes that simply makes starting a family far less automatic than it once was.
    Mike Blackmon:
    In what ways have educational improvements for women aided this segment of the population in less developed countries, especially Afghanistan?
    Mary Mederios Kent:
    Education for women has been linked with many benefits, for the individual woman, her family, and community. Research shows that women with more education are healthier and have healthier children, for example. They are more likely to use effective family planning and have the number of children they want.
    If women in Afghanistan are able to improve their educational levels, they and their families will reap these same benefits.

    See the press briefing at the National Press Club, Washington, D.C., for the 2009 World Population Data Sheet, with Carl Haub, James Gribble, and Linda Jacobsen

    The 2009 World Population Data Sheet and companion report are available at www.prb.org/Publications/Datasheets/2009/2009wpds.aspx

    ]]>
    Carl Haub, James Gribble, Linda Jacobsen, Mary Mederios Kent Thu, 03 Sep 2009 14:30:00 +0100
    Africa's Future: Improving the Health of Mothers and Children http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3635/
    Raymond G. Dogore, MD, MPH, Director:

    What are the obstacles and where are the gaps in the current subsaharan countries prevention interventions targeting maternal and new born mortality reduction?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    While Sub Saharan Africa is experiencing fertility rates among the highest in the world, the prevention interventions targeting maternal and new born mortality in this part of the world focus mainly on antenatal care and undermine family planning as an effective means for the reduction of maternal and child mortality.

    A major obstacle is at the policy level, which in most sub saharan africa, do not allow task shifting from the upper to the lower level of the health care system. There is a medicalization of prevention interventions and there is not enough involvement of community actors and other sectors of development.

    To make these programs more successful, a holistic approach to address the social and economic conditions that cause maternal and child mortality need also to be considered. Causes of maternal mortality such as women’s hard domestic work, malnutrition and nutrition deficiencies, malaria, low access to primary health care need to be taken seriously into account. As Kishore said, women empowerment is of paramount importance if we want to improve women and child health.
    Dr. Anima Sharma:
    The Mother-Child Healthcare has always been a matter of concern from every perspective but still there are few gap areas, which need to be addressed. I am an Indian Anthropologist, having lot of experience in studying the indigenous rituals and practices but not having any first hand information about Africa still through secondary text I have come to know that African culture also has rich tradition of folk practices related to every phase of life. My question is that while making health policies for them do we take their ethnic practices into consideration or in other words do make use of their ethnic knowledge?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    I share your point of view that mother-child health care needs to integrate ethnic practices. Unfortunately, health policies are too often based on research from the western world and they do not always use research results from ethno/anthropologic in africa. There is a lot of ehtnographic research done by university scholars but they are not well disseminated among the public health community in Africa. In addition funding for MCH/FP programs comes from outsiders and concepts are not enough adapted to the african context by african public health program managers. There is a need to use more ethnic evidenced-based information to develop appropriate policies and programs.
    El Bachir SOW:
    Dr Diop, pour m’en tenir seulement à la région ouest africaine, que gagneraient les programmes de PF (et sans doute aussi les pays concernés) en faisant davantage la promotion des méthodes de longue durée et en s’intéressant beaucoup plus aux besoins des couches désavantagées dans des sociétés où, il faut le souligner, la pauvreté touche de grandes parties de la population ? Merci.
    Nafissatou Diop:
    La litterature montre que les methodes de longue duree sont le moyen le plus efficace de relever la prevalence contraceptive. Cependant si l'on observe le programme de PF des pays ouest africains, on se rend compte que les taux d'utilisation du DIU (2% ), des implants (1% ), de la sterilization (0,3% )sont tres bas (donnees de l'EDS Senegal). Or ces methodes de longue duree ne sont disponibles qu'au niveau le plus eleve de la pyramide sanitaire (hopital, centre de sante, ou cliniques privees).

    Si l'on regarde les besoins non satisfaits selon le quintile de bien etre, on voit que les pauvres et les plus pauvres (Quintiles Q1, Q2, Q3) ont plus de besoins non satisfaits que les populations les plus riches (Quintiles Q4, Q5). L'acces a l'information sur la PF est plus faible chez les couches desavantagees (radio 41% pauvre vs 49%; TV 10% pauvre vs 52% riche;...). Donc les pauvres ne sont pas touches.
    Ainsi dans la plupart des pays ouest africain les programmes de PF gagneraient a se reorienter vers les couches desavantagees du mileu urbain et rural, pour accroitre rapidement la prevalence contraceptive et reduire les inequites dans l'acces aux services de sante.
    Adrienne Allison:
    World Vision found that when FP was related to rapid population growth or national development, communities absolutely rejected FP. For the past two years, WV has discussed FP only in terms of Healthy timing and Spacing of Pregnancy. The data showing the relationships between birth-to pregnancy intervals and infant, child and maternal mortality are compelling. As a result, WV is now adding FP, in terms of HTSP, to its health programs that include about 70 million people in Africa. This is the only message that most communities understand, appreciate and request.How can HTSP messages become part of the fabric of all FP programs?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    I agree with you that the HTSP arguments is more acceptable to both policy and community levels. From my experience in West Africa, this argument is used since the 80s as program managers quickly understood that the population rapid growth justification couldn't work.

    However what is new is that there is data from several research that shows this benefit. So we should take advantage of these recent data to reinforce our programs. However we should keep in mind that this element alone may not be sufficient to increase CPR.
    Birungi Beatrice:
    As we are trying to improve the health of mothers and children, what programes do you have for school going children since they are the ones suffering during birth at an early age. And remember here in Africa there is still gender imbalances that hinder women to decide even on issues concerning their lives like family planning.
    Again many children are being sexually abused and end up being impregnated, where is the law. I think as we plan for family planning to reduce on the number of children let us look at those other factors causing death to our children during birth.
    Nafissatou Diop:


    There are many programs that seek to fight against illiteracy by giving education to kids especially to girls. Many studies have shown that keeping girls at school reduces their vulnerability to early marriage, early sexual activities and pregnancies which have a positive correlation with maternal mortality and morbidity.

    But we need to recognize that we do not have good RH/FP programs for schools, due to several socio-cultural and religious barriers. And unfortunately an unnacceptable number of school girls are getting pregnant which jeopardize their future. I aggree with you that we need also to address some current trends on sexual abuse, rape and incest and discrimination against girls and women.Gender based violence (GBV)programs are also better structured these days but a lot of work still need to be done.
    A better integration of GBV issues into FP and FP into GBV programs is key. Emergency contraception (EC) is one FP method that needs to be promoted within anti-GBV interventions. Several countries are succeeding in making EC available in post rape services (e.g Zambia, Mexico, Guatemala..). Specialized centers staff, police staff, social services personnel, and health facilities providers need to be trained to provide quickly EC to girls and women that have been raped.
    charlie teller:
    In order to influence policymakers in SSA, shouldn't we distinguish between the mortality reduction/family health approaches to reducing the high demand for children, and more macro socio-eco. development and cultural change approaches to reducing pop. growth and resource/environ/food pressures. In the latter, raising early age at marriage, girl's education and off-farm migration are the types of effective pop-related policies needed. In this light, Ms Diop, why has a country like Senegal progressed more in its demographic transition than other neighboring Sahelian countries (Mali, Niger, BF, etc.)?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    Senegal demographic transition is mainly due to the increase of the age of marriage due to the improvement in girls education and also urbanization. Senegal is more urbanized than Mali, BF, Niger with about 50% of the population living in urban cities.
    J Kishore:
    Dear John Bongaarts, Population growth in Africa is a symptom of bigger problem of illiteracy, poor nutrition and development. Our focus should be on raising education and development by stablising political and economic crisis in the region that can be very well done through United Nations involvement. Women empowerment (Political, economical, education and health) would improve mother and child health.
    John Bongaarts:
    There is no doubt that education, women's empowerment and human development in general are powerful forces that bring about development and move countries through their demographic transitions. However some poor countries are stuck in a poverty trap in which rapid population growth and high fertility contribute to poverty and vice versa. Breaking out of this trap is difficult and requires investments in human development, women's empowerment and family planning/reproductive health
    Marcel Reyners:
    Method choice is a quality indicator of a FP program. But most couples do not have access to methods as IUD and sterilization because of lack of providers and high costs. In your opinion, should RH/FP programs not tackle those issues of access as priority of all priorities??
    John Bongaarts:
    Past studies have shown that greater choice of methods leads to higher contraceptive prevalence, lower unmet need and greater user satisfaction. The problem is that many poor countries lack the resources to provide wide access to many methods.
    Tope Akintunde:
    I agree with you that improving the health of mothers and children will go a long way to improve national development in Africa. But do you think that family planning will help in bringing about such improvement when there are still many people in Africa who still don't believe in the use of contraceptives? May be because of religious or cultural beliefs
    What are the possible policies that can work in Africa?
    John Bongaarts:
    There are three general reasons why married women don't use contraception. The first is that they still want more children. This is an important reason in sub-Saharan Africa where desired family size is typically around five. Second some women are not exposed to the risk of pregnancy (e.g husband away, infecund). Third are women with an unmet need i.e. they are not using even though they don't want to get pregnant. Among the main reasons for this are fear of side effects, lack of knowledge and access, costs and opposition from self, spouse or others). Well designed FP programs attempt to address all these obbstacles by providing quality care and counceling and through appropriate media messages.
    M.B.Malik:
    Can any country improve its economy condition if it controls its population growth?
    John Bongaarts:
    Reductions in fertilty can make important contributions to economic growth through several mechanisms:
    First, according a recent UN report ” For every dollar spent in family planning, between 2 and 6 dollars can be saved in interventions aimed at achieving other development goals
    Second, as women spend less time on childcare they can become wage earners outside the family thus boosting income and reducing poverty.
    Third, fertility decline leads to a so-called demographic dividend which refers to a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. Reduced fertility also increases expenditures on children’s education and health, and encourages savings thus giving economic growth a further boost.
    Sara Yeatman:
    Most people in sub-Saharan Africa know methods of modern and traditional family planning. Many have reasonable access to free or subsidized services. What do you propose as the next step?
    John Bongaarts:
    It is true that many people know about methods of family planning, but access at low cost and/or method choice is still limited in many parts of Africa. The next step is to address the reasons women give for their unmet need in particular fear of side effects and opposition from self or others. See answer to question from Akintunde
    Richard Cincotta:
    One way to look at persistent high fertility in the western, central and eastern regions of SSA is to hypothesize that these regions harbor the least favorable conditions for a decline in desired family size and for accessing, disseminating and adopting modern contraception. Thus, such regions (and a few others in Asia) were bound to lag in the fertility transition the longest. Is this a general hypothesis to which you would subscribe? If so, what are the conditions particular to countries in these 3 regions that have most deterred their fertility transition?
    John Bongaarts:
    I agree that conditions in western central and eastern regions of SSA are particularly unfavorable to fertility decline. High child mortality, low literacy, low status of women and pervasive poverty all support desires for large families. Nevertheless there are reasons to believe that such high preferences can be changes rapidly once the right messages and conditions are put in place. For example the implementation of the family planning program (and its IEC component) in Kenya since the 1960s coincided with a large decline in desired family size from 7.2 in the 1970s to less than 3.8 in 2003.
    Ernest Nettey:
    Have any new strategies emerged to tackle the problem of unmet need for FP in Africa recently? If so, what are they and how do they differ in practice across the various sub-regions? Again, how does FP success vary across sub-regions by male involvement?
    What is the future of FP in Africa, considering that HIV/AIDS often receives more attention than FP?
    John Bongaarts:
    On unmet need, see answers to questions by Yeatman and Akintunde.

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic has indeed received more attention than FP. In the past many governments believed the dire predictions that the AIDS epidemic would result in a decline in population and therefore gave lower priority to FP. In fact however the epidemic has peaked and in many countries it has had only a minor impact on population growth. The population of SSA is expected to increase by 1 billion by 2050. It is increasingly clear that the neglect of FP has been a mistake.
    Yinka Shokunbi:
    Nigeria's population is no doubt huge while the acceptance of family planning methods is low; what options remain un-explored to ensure aceptance among a people with diverse beliefs and culture as well as high illiteracy level which is fueled by bad governance?
    John Bongaarts:
    See earlier answers to Yeatman and Akintunde
    Danjuma Jise:
    Q1 Has a carrying capacity been established for our planet yet?
    Q2. Is Africa's population improving towards stability, if yes when is the projected time for this?
    John Bongaarts:
    Q1: No one has established a credible carrying capacity for our planet and the concept is now considered problematic, because the number depends on the consumption level, the development of new technologies etc. In general however fewer people is better.
    Q2 Africa is one of the fastest growing regions in the world. Population growth is expected to continue throughout this century adding well over a billion. See projections made by the UN population division
    Tope Akintunde:
    I believe that the issue of mass poverty with gross inequalities and the problem of high level of illiteracy should be tackled first in SSA and other things like the use of family planning in order to improve mothers' health will fall in place
    John Bongaarts:
    I think that we should do all these things. In particular I see FP not only as a health but also as an economic investment.
    Mbagnick DIOUF:
    Dr. Diop. Si la plupart des produits contraceptifs utilisés au Sénégal nous viennent des bailleurs. Pensez vous que si ces derniers retirent la relance de la PF n'aboutira pas?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    Mbagnick, je suis d'accord avec vous que les produits contraceptifs sont supportes par les bailleurs de fonds. C'est du a ce constat que l'alerte a ete donnee en 2005 pour repositionner la PF. C'etait non seulement pour lui redonner de l'importance dans les programmes de sante publiques, mais c'etait surtout pour que le sgouvernements s'impliquent plus dans l'achat des contraceptifs, puisque la tendance au niveau international etait a la reduction des financements pour la PF.

    Je ne peux pas envisager pour le moment un retrait des partenaires au developpement. Au contraire, avec le changement d'administration aux Etats Unis et les initiatives telles que celle-ci pour attirer l'attention des politiques, et des populations, on assiste a une augmentation des financements alloues a la PF. Le congres americains a recemment accorde plus de financements. Je susi persuade que cette tendance va continuer, afin que les pays puissent mettre en oeuvre leur programme de relance de la PF. Cependant les gouvernements doivent aussi allouer des lignes budgetaires, si ils sont convaincus que l'utilisation de la contraception par les populations contribue aussi au developpement economique de leur pays.
    Mohamed ElMouldi CHERIF:
    I don't have a question, but i think the world need a strategic vision to arrive to a tactic targets,but this need beside the civil societies, [it needs] a truly and an honest will to upgrade to these situations and others in the world. [In] this new century we need really more and more collaborations without politics or economic challanges.
    John Bongaarts:
    Thanks for your thoughtful comment
    Roger Rochat:
    Death during or after traditional abortion remains important contributor to maternal deaths in Africa. some countries,e.g. SA, Zambia, Ethiopia have changed their laws to permit legal and safer abortions. Has this led to a reduction in maternal mortality from abortion?
    John Bongaarts:
    Yes unsafe abortion remains a major cause of maternal deaths. I am not aware of studies that have measured declines in maternal deaths after the changes in the laws in SA Zambia and Ethiopia, but I would expect the impact to be substantial.
    Hazel Denton:
    PEPFAR: Billions of US dollars are being pumped into SSAfrica to address AIDS, in a 'stovepipe' approach. Do you see any prospect - under the new Administration - of shifting the focus toward using these funds for strengthening health care systems in general, and integrating Family Planning into health care?
    John Bongaarts:
    There is increasing concern that the huge amounts of funding for AIDS are overburdening the health care system and are taking attention away from other more cost-effective health interventions. The FY 2010 budget includes a substantial increase for international family planning so that is step in the right direction.
    Dr. Josephine Alumanah:
    Some women in a relationship because of their economic standing more than culture may not be able to access some forms of family planning and taking advantage of some safe motherhood practices. What should be done to help such women?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    I agree with you that there is a huge inequity in terms of access to family planning services. In most african countries DHS data shows that poor and very poor women (quintile 1,2,3) have a higher unmet need than wealthy women (quintile 4,5). This means that our safe motherhood programs are not reaching the poor. Only countries like Bangladesh were able to reduce these inequities. Recently I read that the Brazilian MOH is also reorienting the program to reach disadvantaged groups.
    I think that the first step is to draw governement attention to these facts, using research results that show what are the gaps in their program coverage. the second step will be to develop and implement interventions that will reach the poor in urban slums, and poor remote areas.
    Jason Bremner:
    Wow, I'm really impressed with the many thoughtful questions.

    Do you think that our key term "unmet need" for family planning realistically measures latent demand for FP services? It seems there are many women who want to space or limit their births and aren't using contraception, but won't use a method if we improve access to FP due to various additional barriers. Is there a better measure for immediate need?
    John Bongaarts:
    You are right simple access is only one of many reasons for having an unmet need. For women who are exposed, fear of side effcts and opposition from others are key factors.
    Edith Mbatia:
    Most of FP services in Sub-Sahara Africa are provided in the health services, where the accessibility and utilization of services is very low and some areas no services. What will be the best ways to convince the government to increase the health budgets and monitor the utilization of funds towards improving health services?
    Most of deaths of under-fives and mothers occur outside the health services as community have no trust with the services provided. Is there any of the country which manages to increases the utilization of health services and reduce the deaths?
    Nafissatou Diop:
    You can look at the recent exemple of Rwanda who is really operating an incredible shift and improving the use of services. Madagascar is another example. I encourage you to look at the litterature on these 2 countries
    ]]>
    John Bongaarts, Nafissatou Diop Thu, 30 Jul 2009 15:00:00 +0100
    How Will Global Aging Affect Economic Development? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3581/
    Epokor Michael Kudjoe:
    Does Economic development wholly depend on the age bracket of an economy to warrant the effect of a dwindling economy?
    David Bloom:
    Economic development is a complicated process that depends on many factors. Among these is the age structure of the population. This has been a neglected determinant of economic growth and development. But by no means are we suggesting that demography or age structure is destiny.
    Richard Cincotta:
    In Europe, laborforce size is currently declining, yet unemployment rates remain stubbornly high. Some blame Europe's high unemployment rates on overly-protective labor laws and and other investment disincentives put in place when labor was in greater supply. Is there any theoretical reason or empirical evidence suggesting that labor scarcity could stimulate reforms that might improve the performance of European labor markets?
    David Bloom:


    Institutions respond to real economic conditions. Insofar as labor becomes increasingly scarce, we should expect labor market institutions to respond. The responses won’t be instantaneous; there is a great deal of inertia when it comes to institutional change and innovation. In addition, high unemployment in Europe represents a supply overhang on the market, so it will take a while until employers experience the need for more labor.

    One such example concerns retirement policy. A striking fact about the normal/legal age at retirement is that it has barely increased in most countries over the past 50 years, even in the face of a roughly two-decade increase in global life expectancy. The post-War baby boom has alleviated much pressure for the age of retirement to increase, but this will likely change as labor markets tighten with the entry of smaller cohorts. We can also expect to see the elimination in public and private pension systems of incentives for “early” retirement.

    This question also rests on a premise about the unemployment rate in Europe relative to the US. Based on http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/US-EU-UR-2009-05.pdf this premise may not be entirely well founded. In particular, unemployment in the US is now higher than in most European countries. For a number of years, it was higher than in Austria, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland.
    Epokor Michael Kudjoe:
    If the aged shall exceed the young or the productive age group does that mean that birth rate will reduce?

    David Bloom:
    The birth rate depends on the age structure of the population and age-specific fertility rates. The larger the population share at the very young and old ages, the lower the fertility rate, holding age-specific fertility constant. The higher the age-specific fertility schedule, the higher the birth rate, holding age structure constant. Insofar as fertility rates increase in the face of labor shortages, it could be expected that a high elder share will lead, over the long run, to an increase in the age-specific fertility schedule. On the other hand, labor shortages might reduce the demand for children, because work alternatives are so favorable. The bottom line is that this is a complicated question to answer.
    Marlene Lee:
    The introduction to this discussion speaks of global aging as an economic burden, but your work on the demographic dividend and recent findings by Gruber and Wise that " greater labor force
    participation of older persons is associated with greater youth employment and
    with reduced youth unemployment"
    suggest otherwise. Among potential responses to population aging--reducing incentives to retire, promoting life long health, etc.-- which have the potential for greatest benefit to economic development?
    David Bloom:
    This question makes an important point. Gruber and Wise do indeed cast doubt on the hypothesis that young and old individuals compete for jobs. Put another way, the young and old seem to be more complements in the labor market than substitutes.

    With respect to policy responses to population aging, the promotion of healthy aging will have no discernible effect on economic growth unless people also work longer. Reducing incentives to retire will have a first-order and relatively immediate impact on the macro economy, assuming older workers don’t crowd out, say, middle-age workers from the labor market.

    Akanni Akinyemi:
    This is a very interesting topic. What are your views on automation of some work schedules as well as the use of technology rather than human in labour force? Also, with changing migration policies in the North to attract prime productive ages, what is the prospect for the developing countries in the aging-development issues?
    David Bloom:
    Labor shortages can naturally be expected to encourage higher capital/labor ratios, e.g., automation.

    Migration is not likely to affect large enough numbers in the North or the South to substantially alter the age structure or the economic trajectory of either set of countries.

    Ghazy Mujahid:
    The issue is will impact differently in developed and less developed countries at least during the medium term. While in the developed countries where the traditionally defined working age population already is or will be declining, in most less developed countries this potential workforce (still defined as 15-64 years) will be continuing to increase. While older persons (beyond 60) are becoming healthier and more able to work, letting them continue in work or be re-employed will impact adversely on job prospects for the younger workforce, particularly the new entrants. The question of inter-generational justice will then arise with respect to jobs. Should the preference not be to give jobs to the new entrants as those 60 have already enjoyed that privilege for decades? How do we resolve this?
    David Bloom:
    The observation that the demographic cycles are out of phase is fundamentally correct.

    With respect to intergenerational justice, the evidence points in the direction of there being no effect of population aging on youth employment. This is one of the main findings brought out by Jonathan Gruber and David Wise.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    Global aging will call for new social security systems to cater to special needs of the elderly. Against the backdrop of the current economic crisis, will countries be able to respond adequately to these special needs?
    David Bloom:
    Many social security systems are indeed very generous to the elderly. In fact, they are so generous that the real issue here has to do with their sustainability in the face of aging populations. If the economic crisis were substantially protracted, it could serve to exacerbate this challenge. But most economists think the crisis will abate in the next two to three years, which means that it won’t have any fundamental implications for the long-term solvency of social security systems. Of course, a bit of humility is in order here, since the bulk of the economics profession failed to anticipate the current crisis.
    Clarence Pearson:
    Dr. Bloom, 80% of the worlds population are not covered under a pension plan. Most not covered are in devloping countries. What can we do to get insurers and policy makers involved in solving this problem?
    David Bloom:
    It’s certainly true that most of the world’s population is not covered by a pension plan. But that doesn’t mean that all of those people will suffer substantial hardship in old age, since the elderly can still rely on family networks, private savings, and continued work. The democratic process can be expected to exert pressure on public policymakers to initiate programs in the area of pensions. In addition, insofar as policymakers can strengthen market institutions, private insurers are more likely to perceive profit potential and offer pension services. Renewed, long-term economic growth will abet all of these processes. Economic development that is inequality-reducing would also likely play a positive role in addressing this challenge.
    K. Fidel:
    Is continued immigration to the U.S., and illegal immigration in particular, essentially a "ponzi scheme" with respect to the ability of the U.S. and other countries of immigration to provide support for an aging population?
    David Bloom:
    This is a complicated question. I would start by noting that there is no evidence or reason to believe that US immigration (documented and undocumented) will have an appreciable effect on the age structure of the US population. I would also point out that immigrants pay taxes, but they also receive social services. Finally, I question the basis for assuming that non-immigrant fertility will be low for several decades into the future. Insofar as non-immigrant fertility rises, we could see non-immigrant workers funding the pension receipts of retired immigrants.
    John Rohe:
    Would you agree that U.S. immigration will not substanially affect U.S. dependency ratios for the elderly or the age of expected retirement? Here are two references, first, an article in the CIS Backgrounder: http://www.cis.org/articles/2007/back1007.pdf
    and second, this YouTube video on age structures:
    http://cis.org/node/29
    Thank you,
    John
    David Bloom:
    Yes. See previous answers, which call into question the force that immigration will exert on population age structure in the US.
    Tom Te-Hsiung Sun:
    In Taiwan, TFR has been down to 1.15, and 10.5% of the population is over 65. The ratio of working age(15-64) to 65+ is 7 : 1 in 2008. It is projected that elderly will be about 25% by 2050, and the ratio of working age to elderly will be 1.5 : 1. How do you think this change will affect Taiwan's economic development? And, what should we do?
    David Bloom:
    Demographic changes in Taiwan will tend to lower per capita economic growth. But the effect is not likely to come even close to overwhelming other forces that favor growth. Changes in policy that affect, for example, retirement, human capital accumulation (via education and health), and the labor force participation rate of women could further ameliorate the impact of aging on economic growth.
    NANA YAW OSEI THOMPSON:
    How will global aging affect economic development in Africa (with emphasis on sub-saharan Africa )?
    David Bloom:
    The main effect of global aging on sub-Saharan Africa will operate via increasing opportunities for emigration. Emigration will tend to reduce Africa’s surplus labor. It will also promote economic development insofar as emigrants send home remittances. At the moment, though, there is little basis for thinking these will be large effects for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. They may, however, be significant for some particular countries, especially smaller ones.
    Noelia Paez:
    How [is] aging of population ... going to affect pensions and social security programs (50 years from now if fertility trends remain as predicted)? Do you think consequences of aging are different by pension scheme? (Pay-as-you-go versus Fully-funded)?
    David Bloom:
    As we’ve noted in the response to an earlier question, population aging poses challenges to the capacity of pension systems to maintain benefits at current levels of generosity. The conventional wisdom is that fully funded systems are the best from the standpoint of sustainability. However, Adair Turner, former chair of the U.K. Pensions Commission, has offered some compelling arguments against the superiority of funded systems as compared with PAYGO. See http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/turner.htm
    Ghazy Mujahid:
    I think that Prof Bloom should throw some light on Brundtland's remark that the developed countries became rich before becoming aged, while the developing countries are ageing before becoming rich. Does that not call for very different approaches to addressing ageing-related issues in the two differenty types of countries?
    David Bloom:

    With respect to the options they have for providing for the economic security of the elderly, the distinction between developed and developing countries is important. For example, the rich countries have relatively more effective institutional structures for transferring resources between income groups and between generations. This means that pension systems are much easier to design and implement in those countries. By contrast, poor countries are forced to rely more heavily on traditional family networks and continued employment by the elderly. The bottom line is that developed and developing countries will indeed have to adopt different approaches to providing population-wide old age economic security.

    We should also not lose sight of the fact that the challenge faced (in terms of the elderly proportion of the population) is more formidable in the wealthy industrial countries – at least for the moment. But those countries can also bring to bear much greater resources to address this issue.
    Ghazy Mujahid:
    The points mentioned in response to Clarence Pearson are family networks, private savings, and continued work. These in fact can be seen to be falling increasingly short of the needs of the growing numbers of older persons in the developing countries. Family networks are under strain because of smaller size family, out-migration and increasing tendency of female employment. Private savings are virtually not there for a majority of the older persons in the poor countries. Continued work -which older persons are increasingly relying on - is leading to lower wages for the older workers and will also adversely affect employment available for younger persons. Sorry for this pessimistic scenario but in many developing countries these are ground realities. The question is where will resources for social pensions and welfare payments come?
    David Bloom:
    I agree that family networks are being subjected to increasing strain. The severity of this strain is likely to increase as a result of continued fertility decline and increased mobility within countries.

    Under these and related circumstances, people typically look to the state to safeguard the well-being of the elderly. The substantial vacuum that exists with respect to pension and healthcare systems in many developing countries means that such institutions will need to be designed and implemented. It would be folly to design such institutions in the absence of an appropriate evidence base. The Health and Retirement Studies that are under way in more than two dozen countries (including India and China) offer a promising step in this direction. These studies will contribute to increased public consciousness about the situations and the needs of the elderly. In this way, they may be expected to help inform and catalyze a process of institutional development that has the potential to improve the well-being of the elderly. More generally, a set of policies and institutions that promote equitable economic growth will facilitate greater savings and will increase the government’s ability to effect transfers of resources. These are the most likely sources for pension funding and, I believe, the most likely scenario under which they will be forthcoming.
    Ghazy Mujahid:
    As it approaches 2 pm and I have to rush to another meeting, I would like to use this space to express my thanks to Prof Bloom. This one hour has been very useful and interesting for me. I hope we all will have more opportunities of such interaction. Thanks and have a nice day.
    David Bloom:
    Many thanks to you. Your questions and comments (and those of the others as well) were terrific! I, too, would welcome further opportunities like this and, even better, meeting you in person.
    ]]>
    David Bloom Wed, 24 Jun 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    Explaining India's Deficit of Girls http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3485/
    Davie Kabwira:
    What are Gender activists/advocates and government of India doing over this?
    Leela Visaria:
    With the support of NGOs and also donor agencies such as UNFPA and Population Foundation of India, a number of activities, using various media, messages about valuing girl child, and promoting various schemes towards education of girls are being spread. As a result, awareness about the Act banning sex determination test and female selective abortion has increased a great deal among people throughout the country.
    Richard Cincotta:
    Much has been hypothesized about the social impact of a high sex ratio in the pool of marriageable young adults (which should be occurring in India and China as unbalanced cohorts reach young adulthood), but nothing (to my knowledge) has been convincingly demonstrated. Are there any demonstrated social effects from any of the Indian-state cases?
    Leela Visaria:
    I know of qualitative studies that have been carried out in Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat states, to understand social impact of adverse sex ratio, where the female deficit has been one of the worst in the country and which have historically practised other modes of eliminating girls. The available information is very limited based on case studies and so nothing generalisable can be discerned. But typically, in female deficit communities, girls are brought on payment from poor lower caste households, often from other regions. As a result, language, food habits, social customs etc. become huge issues. However, the few reports I have seen indicate that most girls do adjust over time, and accept the fact that their parents could not have been able to marry them well otherwise. Some girls have run away but once children are born, the women stay on. Another interesting thing that has been noted is that such women are not brought alone but other girls known to them also are married and so they have some companions from their own region.
    Dr. Anima Sharma:
    Hi,I am an Anthropologist from India an I deeply appreciate the dire contrasts in the Indian Society. On the one hand, there are women holding responsible posts in politics, bereaucracy, Corporate Sector and Government offices and there is a co-existing reverse scenario, where women suffer from various social abuses like female foeticide, child marriage, early pregnancy, Dowry, poor nutrition, limited role in decision making, subordinate social status and consequently lower self-esteem. This condition is though Pan-Indian but is more severe in the so-called 'BIMARU' states plus Panjab and Haryana, which dominate in nurturing various types of social evils. The problem is not limited to the rural areas or among the illiterate and deprived sections of the society but in the urban areas too sexual harrassment and job-related problems are there for the working women.
    This problem is deep rooted in the Indian society and needs a multi-pronged intervention and strict and systematic implementation in the form of Policy-making, Advocacy, Awareness etc. Programme. Much is being done but still much more needs to be done. What do you think that what strategy should we adopt to address this issue thoroughly.
    Leela Visaria:
    The only strategy in my opinion that would in the long term work is start with children. The education material should be based on gender equality from the primary stage itself and designed very carefully. We have to inculcate the gender equality norm among children from a very early age and stage.
    Gouranga Dasvarma:
    (1) The declining femininity ratio of India's population for over a hundred years is amply demonstrated with Indian population census data. What proportion of this decline can be attributed to a greater underenumerationof female children? (Please see comments by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, quoted in Population and Development Review, Vol. 34, No. 2, June 2008).
    (2) In your opinion, what can be done to convince the Indian parents of northern (and now southern) India of the socio-cultural and demographic necessity of having female children?
    Leela Visaria:
    The age-specific sex ratio of India's population (knowing fully well that age misreporting and digit preference resulting from not knowing age are part of age data) has indicated that underenumeration of women is not a huge issue. The increase in deficit of girls between 1981 and 2001 cannot be attributed to increase over time in under enumeration. In my opinion, population count has improved over time.

    I believe we have to work with children using whatever acceptable means that we can use to demonstrate that girls are as valuable as boys are. For this we have to start very early.
    Agatha Onovo:
    Apart from marriage, family and procreation, what other social impact are there and how does this affect india economicall and politically?

    In Eastern part of Nigeria, male child preference is a culturally acceptable norm. A female child has no inheritance and a married woman that does not have a male child has no inheritance. She may be neglected or divorced by her husband or be depossesed of all she and her husband labourde for and chased out of the husbands house by husbands relatives at the husbands death. Though sex selection is not very common yet, do you think the Ibo's in Nigreia will one day get to the point where India is today?
    Leela Visaria:
    I am afraid yes, if the son preference persists and is not addressed through education and other mass media. Yes, also if the sex determination technology such as ultrasound imagery becomes widely and cheaply available, and if abortion becomes legal and the practitioners are willing to perform second trimester abortion at nominal cost. Abortion should be a woman's right but awareness among both medical fraternity and population should be created to avoid what has happened in India.
    Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene:
    "Is Sex Imbalance in Early Age Mortality Driven by
    Prebirth Environmental Factors, Child Biology, or
    Parental Preferences? Evidence from Male-Female
    Twin Pairs"
    This paper by Pongou provides new insights about sex imbalance in India.
    Leela Visaria:
    I am not aware of the article. What are the insights that Pongou provides? Available evidence I am familiar with indicates that sex imbalance in India results from parental preference for sons and not desiring many daughters due to social factors.
    Cornelius Kondo:
    Femalenticide is a creation by advance[d] medical technology where at low cost you can determine the sex of baby and decide to abort or carry the pregancy. What is the remedy?
    Leela Visaria:
    Banning sex determination test is not THE only remedy as is quite clear in the Indian case. Behavioural change leading to valuing girls as equal to boys is needed and that can be achieved through education that helps young people to internalise it from very early age.
    Barbara J. Isely:
    How do you explain that the deficit of females in India has increased starting around the time of the 1911 Census of India or before. The INCREASING deficit cannot be simplistically blamed on traditional practices. What has been the role of colonial and post-colonial international influences?
    Leela Visaria:
    The deficit of females in India has been convincingly explained by the prevailing neglect of girls and women after carefully examining all possible reasons or factors. The recent (from around 1981) steady increase in the deficit of girls is explained by the increase in use of female selective abortion once the sex of foetus is detected through use of modern medical technology. The traditional son preference is leading to take advantage of newer methods to avoid daughters.
    Pushpanjali Swain:
    Deficit of girls are seen in most developed states and in urban areas in India, where provision of ultrasound machines are available. There are many loopholes in the PNTD act and people get away by aborting female foetus. The issue is how much one enforces the law if people mindset has not changed, cannot reverse deficit of girls. My question is how to change the mindset of people on girl child so that they would think before aborting a foetus?
    Leela Visaria:
    I personally feel that laws or acts cannot go very far in changing the mindset of people. Gender sensitive education that starts at very early age that consistently conveys the message through examples that girls are equal to boys only can help inculcate the value of girls.
    Jose Luis Diaz-Rossello:
    Where can we obtain updated and verified figures of this problem?
    Leela Visaria:
    The age-sex distribution of population available from the decennial Indian censuses gives indirect estimates of the trend over time of the increase in deficit of women. However, given the fact that since 1994, India has passed an Act banning the use of medical technology such as ultra sound imagery to find out the sex of the foetus has made it very difficult to compile data on the extent of the use of the technology. Some hospital birth records from metro cities, where a large proportion of births take place in institutions, do suggest that the sex ratio of births is adverse to girls.
    Richard Cincotta:
    South Korea's sex ratio at birth has recently declined from levels as high as some Indian states and Chinese provinces, to near-normal levels. Do recent Indian DHS data show any declines? And if so, is there evidence suggesting what may contribute?
    Leela Visaria:
    In India, where 50-60 percent of births still take place at home, it is difficult to precisely estimate sex ratio at birth. However, efforts to monitor all pregnancies in some states in small areas where the deficit of women has been pronounced, do suggest further deficit is arrested or there has even been some improvement. The ban on sex determination test may partly explain it but multi-pronged efforts to create awareness about the Act and also the value of girls also is responsible for it.
    Pham Nguyen Bang:
    What are the impacts of the 'stopping rule' (ceasing the child bearing when obtaining a son) on the sex ratio of the population?
    Leela Visaria:
    This is an interesting question. However, what has been estimated in the Indian context is that the sex ratio of the last birth is much more adverse to girls implying that when the couples have a son, after having had one or more children, they stop having additional children. The impact of this observation or evidence on the sex ratio of the population, to my mind, has not been estimated.
    Dr.K..E. Vaidyanathan:
    NFHS 3(2005-06) gives a rural female-male ratio for 0-6 years (921), which is lower than the 2001 Census figure (934), with no change for urban. How can we explain this when Facilities for sex selection and abortion are unlikely to be better in rural than in urban?
    Leela Visaria:
    The Indian states where deficit of girls is quite pronounced are also the states which are better developed and have good road network and transportation facilities enabling rural women to travel to nearby urban centres to undergo sex determination test or abortion.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    Unless the social mindset of the Indians [changes], the situation will not change. How do you think this can be done?
    Leela Visaria:
    I have argued that unless we start changing the mindset of young children in schools, through gender sensitive text books, etc. I do not expect that we can reverse the situation very quickly or easily.
    Dr.K..E. Vaidyanathan:
    The female to male ratio in the age group 0-6 years is low even in Kerala, Goa and in Northeastern states, where the status of women is not bad. How do we explain this?
    Leela Visaria:
    Within the states with adverse female to male sex ratio, it has been noted that the situation is much worse among those who are better educated, landed, belong to higher castes compared to those who are illiterate, landless, etc. The former group has the resources to obtain the needed services, also want smaller families with at least one son.
    Pham Nguyen Bang:
    Pregnant women and their partners have the right to be informed about the development of the fetal, including the fetal sex information. The legal prohibition of disclosure of the fetal sex via ultrasound has violated this right, doesn't it?
    Leela Visaria:
    Women have the right to know about the development of the foetus in India. The ban is on informing them or their partners about the sex of the foetus. This ban is imposed because of the prevailing strong son preference and not wanting daughters, which can be eliminated in the situation where abortion is legal.
    maureen:
    What will happen to Indian and Chinese societies when there are too many males and not enough females to marry, work, or procreate? And if females are still being aborted, what are the estimate numbers today with a future estimate and a historic estimate so we could see if the problem is declining or increasing. And, can these people sell their girl babies to Americans or Europeans who want them?
    Leela Visaria:
    I believe that one cannot project on the basis of the current scenario that it will continue in foreseeable future. There are perhaps some self-correcting mechanisms that would come in force, there are efforts by governments and civil society groups to create awareness about gender equality norms which may impact the behaviour of some.

    In India, more girl babies than boy babies are put up for adoption. However, 'selling' or adoption cannot be a long term solution.
    sonvi kapoor:
    Women's right to abortion and the ban on sex selective abortion are seen to conflict with each other in India . At the same time, son preference, and the tension around women's reproductive rights in India , appear to stem from a common patriarchal system that is biased against females. Therefore, what according to you are some of the obstacles that could be removed and how, to ensure a reduction in son preference and in the tension around women's reproductive rights. Are there any concrete steps that you could suggest, or any issues that need to be addressed as a pre-requisite to meet this combined agenda?
    Leela Visaria:
    First and foremost the confusion between abortion as a woman's right and a ban on knowing the sex of the foetus needs to be removed. Education about the value of girls in every sphere of life must start very early.
    Lester Coutinho:
    1. How should we interpret and understand the most recent SRS data on SRB that shows some degree of reversal in trends in some states, and even in states where trends are still skewed against girls, the rate of adverse change has slowed? Specifically, how do we interpret HP and Kerala which in just 8-9 years are showing very significant reversal? Also, in light of the analysis offered by Bhat and Xavier (EPW) on the mismatch between geographies where ultrasound technology is most available (reported use) and where sex ratios are skewed, how are we to understand the regulation of this technology as contributing to preventing further decline of sex ratios.

    2. The note on this website, mentions "ban on sex selective abortions" - which specific legislation/or section of penal code presently bans sex selective abortions - and if India were to enact such a legislation would that be justiciable?
    Leela Visaria:
    I do not believe that making rules about the use or availability of technology more stringent is the answer to prevent further decline in female to male sex ratio. Future developments in technology may even make it easier for women to know the sex of the foetus without going to an ultrasound imagery centre. I am even willing to venture a guess that lifting the ban on sex determination test altogether would not significantly worsen the female to male sex ratio.

    The note should have said ban on sex determination test and not sex selective abortions.
    Lallie Scott:
    Is corruption a factor in the indequate enforcement of laws against sex selective feticide? Is there any possibility that the dowry tradition can be eliminated? And finally, please explain how women themselves (especially mother-in-laws)continue to condone the gender bias that has led to the sex ratio imbalance. Thank you.
    Leela Visaria:
    It is difficult to enforce the law against sex determination test. There are loopholes, no matter how and how many one attempts to plug. However, a ban alone cannot bring about social or behavioural change. There is a law against giving and receiving dowry in India; however, the practice does continue.

    Women have internalised gender bias to such an extent that the role of mothers-in-law in enforcing it is not very important.
    Elisa Martinez:
    What do you make of the arguments presented in this research, that the "missing women" in fact disappear much later in life than we expect, and that GBV [gender-based violence] and lifelong discrimination in the triage of health and nutrition care play a major role?
    http://www.nyu.edu/econ/user/debraj/Papers/AndersonRay.pdf
    Also, is anyone tracking sex ratios in "developed" nations? Finally, is anyone doing longitudinal studies in order to establish better data sets for analysis of the phenomenon (causes and extent)?
    Leela Visaria:
    I agree that due to discrimination, neglect in health care and a range of other factors, women experience both unnecessary mortality (that could be avoided) and also higher mortality than men at several ages. In fact, the age-sex specific death rates for India have shown that at ages from six months to almost the end of reproductive period, death rate among women has been higher than among men.

    In spite of this understanding, the cause of death data suffer from many data-related problems and tend to be very tentative and are based on very small sample size. Efforts are being made to increase the sample, quality of diagnosis or reporting of symptoms leading to death.
    Wayne Thogmartin:
    Both China and India exhibit an imbalanced gender ratio. One might presume that a gender ratio favoring an abundance of males may be one mechanism an overcrowded population employs to put a break on their population growth - there are simply fewer females for giving birth. Is this a reasonable presumption? And at what point do ecological considerations trump gender politics?
    Leela Visaria:
    Population size or population growth are not our only concerns. Balanced gender ratio is also important for a healthy nation. Births can be curtailed through means such as effective use of contraception also.
    Wolfgang Gasser:
    According to the data of 'The 2008 Revision' of the UN, in India of the 2000-2005 period, 5.235 million male deaths corresponded to only 4.465 million female deaths. This results in a male-to-female sex-ratio-at-death as high as 1.17.

    If we attribute a male-to-female sex-ratio-at-birth of around 1.08 to discrimination against (born and unborn) girls, why should we not attribute the 1.17 sex-ratio-at-death to discrimination against men?

    And do you you exclude that this very high male death rate could also be a reason of the relatively high male-to-female sex-ratio-at-birth (as e.g. suggested by 'demographic saturation')?
    Leela Visaria:
    In developed countries, male death rate is indeed higher at most ages than female death rate. Analysis of cause-specific mortality data do give ample evidence of why that is the case. The higher mortality among men compared to women is not a result of discrimination, the way one understands discrimination, which results from bias and prejudice against one group.
    Katia Mohindra:
    What role if any is sanskritisation having on sex ratios?
    Leela Visaria:
    The evidence from a few micro studies showing that the women from backward communities and women with little or no education have also been emulating those from higher castes in opting for sex determination tests suggests that there is some demonstration effect.
    Michael Teitelbaum:
    Presumably enforcement of the (Federal?) law against prenatal sex determination and selective abortion is dependent on State and local police and prosecutorial agencies. Are there also State and local laws on these matters? To what extent is anything known about variation across India in such legal and enforcement aspects?
    Leela Visaria:
    The federal or national law is applicable in the states and at the lower district levels also. However, certain states add more stringent action points to enforce the law or make it more effective. In 'better governed' states, enforcement is better than in poorly governed states. This applies not only to implementation of the ban on sex determination test but of many other laws.
    Sara Friedman:
    The numerous and dire consequences of gender discrimination from birth in South Asia and elsewhere (eg birth registration, nutrution, medical care, foeticide, son preference and other deeply entrenched social values (or lack of) are well known and not new. Apart from the technology in india and implicit permission in China, what is the reason that singles out this region in its deficit of female human beings.
    Leela Visaria:
    Female deficit in India, for all the reasons that you mention has been known for several decades. Many have termed it as an anomalous situation. Added to this is the increasing use of medical technology, which has aggravated the situation further as evident from the sex ratio of children aged 0-6 years. I do not know of other reasons that can be singled out. Under enumeration of girls or women is often discussed in literature but it has been found not accounting for any significant impact. Sex ratio at birth in South Asia is not any different from that observed or reported in other countries to account for the deficit of women.
    Mary Nyasimi:
    Mankind’s evolutionary journey through the years is filled with quest for a better and fulfilling life. This quest has led to emergency of technological tools such as a portable sonogram machine making it easier for humans to meet their life’s desires…have more boys than girls. It is becoming evident that technological undertaking like sonograms, including its ramifications and spin-offs, will change the course of human evolution, probably drastically. Therefore, by preferring boys to girls and having the means to do that, are we witnessing a slow but inevitable process of human evolution?
    Leela Visaria:
    I do not think so. I feel that mankind can change its value system and behaviour by giving up son preference and value girls as much as boys.
    Katia Mohindra:
    How can gender-sensitive education for children be sufficient if rigid kinship systems are not modified to enable women greater access to and control of productive assets - thereby maintaining economic dependence on sons?
    Leela Visaria:
    Along with gender-sensitive education, provision of education to girls as much as given to boys is also important. Economic independence also helps. The question is how do we provide women greater access to assets and employment?
    Janet Huber Lowry:
    You mention medical technology contributing to an increase in the deficit, but what about the trafficking of women and girls - do we know if it has contributed?
    Leela Visaria:
    how would trafficking of women and girls contribute to their overall deficit at national level unless they are sent to other countries? We do not even have any estimates of the volume of trafficking to estimate its contribution.
    ]]>
    Leela Visaria Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    How Family Planning Can Save More Lives http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3342/
    Issa Almasarweh:
    Hello James,
    Why in many countries (Jordan for instance) little attention is given to follow-up postpartum women for immediate FP counseling and use of contraception before early conception occurs?
    James Gribble:
    Hi Issa. You have asked an interesting question. While many programs promote post-partum family planning, so often the attention shifts from the woman to the child during that time frame. Mothers may be likely to bring their children in for immunizations and well-child care, but less likely to return for post-partum care for themselves. To help avoid closely spaced pregnancies, programs should encourage women to return for postpartum care for their own health and to raise attention about family planning. However, they should also incorporate messages about family planning into antenatal care so that women have a clearer idea of what they will do to avoid a closely spaced, unplanned pregnancy.

    According to the website of the “Maximizing Access and Quality Initiative”, very few women (3%-8%) want another child within two years after giving birth; and 40 percent of women in the first year postpartum intend to use a FP method but are not doing so. What a missed opportunity! Tale a look at the data from Jordan to see what is happening—I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a lot of postpartum women who are not using family planning and who are not ready to get pregnant again.

    Esther Nakkazi:
    I recently read about contraceptive security in Rwanda and my sense is that the country has achieved so much i wonder what has enabled them succeed?

    I would like to write a piece on male involvement in Family planning. Do you have any success stories in Africa?
    James Gribble:
    Hi Esther. In recent years, Rwanda has made some incredible advances in family planning. According to DHS, use of modern family planning methods has increased from 4 percent in 2000 to 27 percent in 2008. A number of factors are attributed to this incredible growth:

    • Government commitment to family planning was especially important to getting things going. The President and members of parliamentarians recognized the importance of addressing rapid population growth and supported policies that would foster family planning. Addressing population growth was also incorporated into Rwanda’s poverty reduction strategy, establishing ambitious goals for to address population.
    • Coordination among donors and partners also helped in leading to a common set of objectives. The government began to support the purchase of contraceptive commodities and created a line item for contraceptives in the national budget. Services improved through in-service and pre-service training, which contributed to a larger number of family planning providers.
    • Performance-based contracts were also put in place as a way to motivate better performance at health facilities. Under this type of program, facilities receive payment based on achieving key targets, such as percentage of women counseled on family planning; percentage of deliveries in health centers; percentage of children under age five sleeping under insecticide-treated bednets.
    • In addition to these factors that affect the availability of family planning, efforts to increase the demand for modern methods have contributed to contraceptive uptake. Messages related to responsible parenthood, good health and family development, and the economic benefits of smaller families have been effective in generating demand for birth spacing among Rwandans.

    Regarding successes in male involvement in family planning, there have been a number of successful programs that have addressed male involvement in different aspects of reproductive health:
    • The Male Motivation Campaign, implemented in Guinea, with the objective of reducing unintended pregnancy;
    • The Men in Maternity Care, implemented in South Africa, with the objective of involving men in antenatal care; and
    • Stepping Stones and Sonke Gender Justice are programs in South Africa that involve men in HIV prevention.
    Agunbiade Ojo:
    How do we address the problem of distorted knowledge on the benefits and risk associated with the use of contraceptives in sub-Saharan Africa?
    Rhonda Smith:
    Dear Agunbiade Ojo,

    I’m so glad you brought up this important topic! Having lived and worked in several sub-Saharan Africa countries over the years, I am very concerned about seeing so many of the same perceived risks, myths, and misunderstandings about contraceptives persist over the decades. There are several issues here: (1) understanding the potential benefits and risks of using contraceptives versus pregnancy; (2) the problem of a distorted fear of side effects; and (3) negative rumors and myths associated with contraceptive use that are unfounded.

    Over the last decade, family planning in many sub-Saharan African countries has lost focus and resources amid shifts in development priorities. One casualty of reduced resources has been fewer (or less vigorous) information and education programs to inform the public and address misinformation about contraceptives. Revitalizing these programs, with a special emphasis on messages that directly counter rumors and accurately convey the potential benefits and risks of contraceptive use to the health of women and children could help. There is also evidence that women and their partners may be less knowledgeable and harbor more misinformation about long-term methods (IUD, implants) than short-term methods (condoms, oral and injectable contraceptives). Unlike short-term methods, there has not been as much marketing support for IUDs and implants to counterbalance negative myths.

    Information efforts need to include comprehensive provider counseling programs that aim to counter misinformation during client visits, and more innovative ways of communicating the facts about contraceptives in general. Engaging well known champions who can discuss their own experiences with selected contraceptives and serve as local models is one approach that has worked in the past. Another may be to develop a compelling presentation or street theater show devoted to this topic that can serve as a point of discussion from national to village level, providing accurate information on different contraceptive methods and correcting the myths and rumors. It would be interesting to hear how others are addressing this issue!

    Rhonda Smith
    Michael Vlassoff:
    Yes, family planning saves lives, but so do many other health interventions. What has been lost from the debate is the other main benefit of family planning, namely how it helps speed up economic growth and reduce poverty. No other purely health intervention can claim this added “demographic bonus”. Promotion of family planning from the economic growth angle has sadly been left by the wayside, even though it could be used to persuade pro-natalist governments, such as Uganda’s, to rethink its lukewarm stance on family planning. Is anything being done in the donor community or elsewhere to re-energize the family planning movement from the demographic-economic perspective?
    Rhonda Smith:
    Hi Michael,
    I completely agree that the links between family planning, economic growth, and poverty reduction have been largely lost from the debate. While the message that “family planning saves lives” is one that continues to play an important advocacy role in engendering support for family planning among selected audiences, it is not sufficient—particularly for high-level officials.

    Promoting family planning from the economic angle does seem to be gaining some ground recently. USAID is once again supporting the development of RAPID presentations in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. These presentations explore the impact of high fertility and rapidly growing populations on the investment needs of different development sectors, including the costs of meeting future needs in education, health care, etc. USAID has also just supported the publication of a policy brief entitled “Family Planning and Economic Well-being: New Evidence from Bangladesh (available at www.prb.org/pdf09/fp-econ-bangladesh.pdf) that shows how families in communities where an integrated family planning and maternal and child health program was implemented over several decades became wealthier (and healthier!) than families who lived in areas without the program.

    In addition, we have found that one of the policy advocacy challenges in demonstrating the family planning/economic link is trying to show the short-term benefits of investing in family planning. Policymakers are often most interested in short-term results. Through private funding, PRB is attempting to convey both the longer-term economic benefits (“demographic bonus”) as well as some short-term benefits, especially improving economic well being and building assets at the household level in one generation. The project features multimedia presentations using new software technology (video testimonials, country comparisons). One of our participating countries in this new advocacy project is Uganda!

    Rhonda Smith
    Elhadi munsour:
    Every educated person knows that family planning saves lives. But in societies where males ... are [dominant], together with low level of education, targeting women can hardly gain success, [instead] we need to work among males. the quesion is, is there any appropraite program of advocacy to applied to this category.
    James Gribble:
    Good question, as constructive male engagement has been a very important issue in the reproductive health/gender work for several years. There was a recent meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on the topic and I think there will be materials forthcoming—keep an eye on the website of the Interagency Gender Working Group (www.igwg.org) for upcoming postings.

    That said, there have been a number of programs and studies that look at how to involve men more effectively in family planning and reproductive health issues. A recent assessment of several of these interventions identified “Together for a Happy Family”, implemented in Jordan, as one that is effective in engaging men in family planning and that works to transform gender norms. In addition to increased use of family planning, the intervention contributed to increased discussion between partners and shared decision-making about use of methods. Another effective program has been “Men in Maternity”, conducted in India between the Employees State Insurance Corporation and the FRONTIERS Project. This project led to greater couple communication about FP/RH decisions, increased use of post-partum family planning, increased knowledge of condom use for FP and dual protection, and higher levels of client and provider satisfaction.

    I encourage you to look on line for additional information and contacts for both of these programs. These and other similar programs may provide good examples of how to improve men’s involvement in FR and RH issues.
    J Kishore:
    Education and income of family and mothers are directly linked with the low birth rates. These factors are considered good alternative methods of family planning. In majority of urban areas due to privatization and lack of proper implementation of legislations large number of mothers are delivering by cesarian sections which is associated with high mortality and morbidity. Conceptually even health profssionals are not understanding what family planning is? It is important to teach how to avoid unwanted pregnancy. If it is wanted then how to appreciate and care for it.
    Rhonda Smith:
    Dear J. Kishore,
    Yes, education and higher levels of family income are linked to lower birth rates. Although education and income typically drive down fertility levels, they don’t take the place of family planning methods or the need for strong family planning services today. I agree with you that some health providers may not fully understand the benefits of family planning or the importance of including family planning as an esssential component of women’s broader health care needs. It is also of great concern that so many women have an “unmet need” for family planning. These are women who say they want to space their births or avoid having any more children, but are not using any family planning methods. Studies show that as many as 200 million women in developing countries have an unmet need for family planning, and one of the consequences of this “unmet need” is large numbers of unplanned pregnancies.

    Reaching women and their partners who have a stated need is the first step in reducing unplanned pregnancies. While ensuring access to family planning services is one dimension of this challenge (services close to home, variety of methods, congenial setting, low cost, few barriers to eligibility), women and their partners also need information and they need to be encouraged to discuss family planning. Strengthening community education and behavior change programs is crucial. Within the health system, taking advantage of every opportunity to integrate family planning into other heath services (maternal and child health, HIV/AIDS services) is another essential step, with the integration focus on no missed good opportunities!

    In reference to your comment about the increasing numbers of unnecessary Cesarean section in urban settings—this is alarming for several reasons including the shift of resources to non-essential interventions in resource-poor settings and the additional health risks to mothers and newborns following a cesarean section. We have the same problem across the country right now in the United States. Although clearly beneficial and life-saving in selected circumstances, the absolute indications for cesarean section apply to only a small proportion of births. Reasons for the increase appear to rest more with professional styles and practices rather than the health needs of mothers or babies. If you are interested in more on this topic, see: http://www.childbirthconnection.org/pdfs/evidence-based-maternity-care.pdf; and Community factors affecting rising caesarean section rates in developing countries: An analysis of six countries, Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 67, Issue 8 October 2008, pages 1236-1246.

    Rhonda
    Sri Moertiningisih Adioetomo:
    Through RH Costing model I estimated that if CPR increased to 70% in 2015 compaerd to 57% in 2005, there would be 4.7 millions births averted. Meaning that 4.7 millions pregnancies would be averted. Therefore, maternal mortality would be avoided. The question is: Is it possible to estimate reduction of Maternal Mortality ratio from this method?
    James Gribble:
    Hi--The Reproductive Health (RH) costing model is designed to help countries estimate how much it would cost to scale-up a basic package of reproductive health services - ranging from family planning, antenatal and delivery care to emergency obstetric care and STI treatment - from current to universal coverage levels. I have to say that I am not familiar with it. However, I am familiar with the SPECTRUM Suite of models, which includes modules on demographic projections, effect of family planning, HIV, and safe motherhood. The safe motherhood model includes input on costs of different types of services, and builds on the demographic and family planning modules. SPECTRUM can be used to estimate reductions in maternal mortality ratios based on interventions selected and budget amounts. Scott Moreland and colleagues at Futures Group used SPECTRUM in their analysis of how reducing unmet need for family planning can contribute to achieving the MDGS, including the reduction in maternal mortality ratios. Sorry I can’t answer your question about the RH costing model, but I hope pointing you in the direction of SPECTRUM will provide you with a useful tool as well as a way of comparing results obtained from the RH costing model.

    Jay
    Huma:
    [Can you discuss] how the fertility rate will effect Europe and USA in 50 years from now?
    Rhonda Smith:
    Dear Huma,
    Although we have no way of knowing for sure what the effect will be in 50 years, we can speculate on the following:

    Between now and then, the fertility rate will determine the degree of population aging in Europe and the US. Over the next few decades, Europe’s and the U.S.’s population structure will change substantially. The baby boom generation (1940s to mid-1960s) will gradually move into retirement, swelling the ranks of the over 60s. Aging is most advanced in Europe where the number of people 60 or over surpassed the number of children a few years ago. By 2050, Europe could have twice as many older persons as children. The U.S. still has a larger number of children under 15 than elderly today, so the population will not age as quickly.

    In Europe, the fertility rate will greatly influence the degree to which populations decline in size in many countries. The majority of European countries are well below replacement level fertility (2.1), which signals a continuing decline in population size, as compared to the U.S, which is at replacement level. The exceptions are France and some of the northern European countries (Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) where the current total fertility rates are around 2.0 and similar to the current fertility rate of the U.S.

    The fertility rate will also influence the degree of shortages in the labor force, leading many European countries to consider increased immigration.

    Rhonda
    Bhola Koirala:
    how family planning matter can saves females lives? can i get its importance in improving maternal health?
    Rhonda Smith:
    Dear Bhola Koirala,

    Thank you for your question. It is not always easy to see the direct link between family planning and women’s health. While most women welcome pregnancy and childbirth, the risks of illness and death associated with these events are very high in some parts of the world. In developing countries we know that a woman’s lifetime risk of dying due to pregnancy and childbirth is 1 in 75, or almost 100 times higher than in developed countries where the lifetime risk in only 1 in every 7,300 pregnancies and childbirths.

    Lack of access to good prenatal care and delivery services plays a big role in the health outcomes of pregnancy and childbirth. But we have also learned that family planning could prevent as many as one in every three maternal deaths by helping women to avoid high-risk pregnancies that are:
    - too early (girls under the age of 18 face a higher than normal risk of death or disability from pregnancy)
    - too many (women who have had many babies are more likely to have problems with their later pregnancies, and face increased risk of complications and death).
    - too late (women over age 35 have a higher than normal risk of death or disability);
    - too frequent (women who have babies too close together have a higher risk of illness and death. Woman should wait at least two years after giving birth before trying to become pregnant again. This birth interval protects the health of the mother).

    Research also shows that may women who are not using family planning and have unplanned or unintended pregnancies, turn to abortion. Since abortion in not legal or is still highly restricted in many countries, women turn in desperation to persons lacking the necessary skills to safely conduct an abortion, or who work in an environment lacking the minimal medical standards, or both. Tragically, many of these unsafely performed abortions lead to disability and death. If more sexually active women who want to avoid unplanned pregnancies and high-risk births were using family planning, many more lives could be saved.

    Rhonda
    harriet mitteldorf:
    Why not embark on an aggressive program to popularize advantages of 1-2-child families for parents and children as well as available resources. And I agree with Issa.
    James Gribble:
    Hi,
    One of the ideals that emerged from ICPD was that women and men should be able to choose the timing and spacing of their children, and have access to family planning methods that help them achieve those goals. This idea puts women and men into the role of decision maker about reproductive decisions. Information about the health benefits of family planning can also help inform their decisions, as can evidence that shows the importance of family planning as an important part of poverty reduction strategies. Globally, women and men are increasingly recognizing the costs of children and the economic benefits of having fewer children.

    Most family planning and reproductive health programs focus on having fewer children and avoid setting targets, such as 1-2 children. In a country with very high fertility, it’s likely to be difficult to persuade people to have 1-2 children; however, they may see the benefits of having fewer children. Ultimately, it is the choice of the woman and man to decide, but information about the health and economic benefits of family planning can be useful for helping people with the decision.

    Jay
    Subhas Yadawad:
    Family Planning cetainly saves many more lives. What is the scope of "Family Planning"? What are the components included in Family Planning? What is the difference between Family Planning and Family Welfare?
    Rhonda Smith:
    Dear Subhas Yadawad,

    Family planning means planning when and how many children to have and how to prevent unintended pregnancies. It covers areas as varied as when and why to get pregnant, the number of children that are wanted, what to do when an unintended pregnancy occurs, and the types of family planning methods to use to delay, space, or avoid a pregnancy (modern contraceptives as well as traditional methods).

    Essential components of family planning programs include counseling clients on all available methods of family planning, the provision of contraceptives, follow-up and referral systems for all clients, maintaining adequate records for each client, supervision of all providers to ensure that client needs are met, and maintaining an effective logistics and supply system for contraceptives.

    Family welfare generally defines a broader set of issues and needs. Family welfare programs can include the provision of basic human requirements such as food, clothing, and shelter as well as the provision of health care services or other critical social sector services such as as care of the elderly, education, sanitation, etc. Family planning services could be supported under a broader family welfare program.

    I hope this provides some clarity!
    Rhonda
    Dr. Anima Sharma:
    Hi,
    I live in a developing country in asia and have worked in Health Sector as a social scientist. My qualitative data narrates that FP plays a vital role in eliminating the risk of excessive and unwanted pregnencies especially to the people of the vulnerable sections and economically weaker sections where quality pre-natal and post natal care is in accessible to the people due to sociocultural reasons. Hence, do not you think that FP Campaign alone may not bring the desire result but we should also stress upon the quality and accessibility of the pre-, post- natal care along with it? It should be an integrated programme in which Medical people and Social Scince people should work hand in hand. What do you think about it? My question is to the both of you.
    James Gribble:
    Hi—and thanks for an interesting question. While we often focus our attention on family planning, we usually put it in the context of a broader reproductive health framework. Your point about integrated programs makes a lot of sense because it allows all of the woman’s reproductive health needs to be handled through the same program. I recently heard an interesting fact: if a woman who wants to have four children, she will spend 16 years of her reproductive life avoiding pregnancy; which suggests that there is a long time—and many opportunities—to have her become a client at a family planning program. With an integrated program, there are more opportunities to reach women with antenatal care, delivery services, and postpartum care. Another important aspect of an integrated program is that it can provide more comprehensive information; for example, including information about family planning during antenatal care is an important time to reach women who experience an unplanned pregnancy—especially in places where use of postpartum care is low. And you are right again about quality being important—if services are poor quality, what incentive is there for clients to return?

    I also appreciate your perspective about multidisciplinary teams working together in designing health programs. A combination of medical, social science, communications, and administrative staff all have complementary roles in creating and operating health programs.

    Jay
    Agatha Onovo:
    Knowing that family planning can save lives, why don't teenage girls and women in Sub Saharan Africa (Nigeria in particular) access family planning services and what can be done to get them to accept and access family planning services?
    Rhonda Smith:
    Hi Agatha,

    This is a good question! Early childbearing poses serious health risks. Maternal death rates for young women ages 15 to 19 are twice as high as for older women. Children born to adolescent mothers also face higher risks of illness and death than those born to mothers in their 20s.

    Research shows that lack of information, fear of side effects, and other barriers—geographic, social, and economic—prevent young people from obtaining and using family planning methods. Other studies in sub-Saharan Africa (including Nigeria) reveal that nurses’ attempts to stigmatize teenage sexuality, their scolding and harsh treatment of adolescent girls, and their unwillingness to acknowledge adolescents as contraceptive users, also undermine the effective use of contraception by girls. Youth need better information on reproductive physiology and sexual health, and detailed information on contraception. They also need youth-friendly services and providers who are open and willing to serve youth with respect as clients.

    For teenage girls and BOYS(!), experts in the field believe we need to be much more proactive in reaching out to young people, taking the messages and information to where they are—schools, community groups, clubs, churches. One example in Nigeria is the “Kyautatawa Iyali” or Family Welfare Project in northern Nigeria state. Since 2001, CEDPA (a U.S.-based NGO) has supported a program to improve reproductive health. Working hand-in-hand with faith-based organizations and community groups, the program engages families and entire communities to recognize the benefits of family planning for improved health and the need to meet the reproductive health needs of young people. A hallmark of the program is the delivery of door-to-door information and services to families and youth. If you are interested in finding out more about this effort go to: http://www.cedpa.org/content/news/detail/1993

    ~Rhonda
    Pushpanjali Swain:
    I work on population and health issues in India. Family Planning definitely save more lives provided advocacy regarding family planning is done suitably. However, poverty is a major issue which needs to be addressed. People living with poverty need more children for more hands for work and in the process of bearing children, they lose some. Due to poverty and malnutrition woman too die due to child birth. In this situation, how family planning would help to save more lives?
    James Gribble:
    Hi--Historically, countries that have gone through the demographic transition have started with reductions in infant and child mortality, which contributes to population growth during that window when fertility remains high. Basic child survival interventions have been around and are generally accessible, and we have seen that infant and child mortality has decreased.

    Poverty in urban areas is likely to lead to smaller fertility because parents see the costs of raising children—food, clothes, education, etc. Your point may be focused more on rural poverty, where children may provide labor for the family’s livelihood. But even in most rural areas, families also experience costs associated with raising children. As family lands get subdivided through the years, what might have supported a larger family is likely only to support a smaller family. Larger families may not be as feasible as they once were.

    As you point out, family planning contributes to saving lives through reducing high-risk pregnancies—it saves the lives of mothers and children. I have seen evidence about the toll that maternal mortality takes on child mortality—that if a mother dies, her infant and children are much more likely to die. In the more usual case of the mother surviving child birth, family planning contributes to saving lives of children through promoting birth spacing, reducing the number of birth to young women, older women, and women who have had many children.

    One final comment—recent research from the rural area of Matlab, Bangladesh indicates that long-term investment in family planning and maternal-child health also contributes to economic well-being of families and communities. So not only is family planning a “best buy” health intervention, but it is also an effective part of poverty reduction strategies.

    Jay
    Meskerem Bekele:
    In our country there is a question which many of mothers asked me when I have tried to talk about family planning. Our ancestors married when they are 12 or 13 years old. they had 10 or more than children but they were healthy. What makes the difference today?
    Others asked " if I am well economically who can tells me to limited my the number of my children?

    Is family planning concerned economically only?
    Can we think one family responsible for his family only?

    Please tell me the methods which you use to teach about family planning
    James Gribble:
    Hi--The memories of the women you talk to may be clouded by what they remember or were told, and not necessarily informed by what actually happened. You can start by telling these mothers that there is new evidence that indicates that early marriage and childbearing is detrimental to the health of women and children. In Family Planning Saves Lives, we present a lot of evidence about the health benefits of family planning—for birth spacing, HIV prevention, and reducing abortion rates. As you point out, there is also the financial/economic case to be made, too. Costs associated with raising children today—health care, education, food, etc—are higher than they used to be. You also mention the social implications of family responsibility—I think you can also tie population growth to environmental degradation, which has en effect on communities, countries, and the world.

    Let me also point you to a tool that may be useful for reaching different groups about family planning. Repositioning Family Planning: Guidelines for advocacy action is a recent publication that includes a set of briefs on focusing attention on family planning. You can find it online at http://www.prb.org/pdf08/familyplanningadvocacytoolkit.pdf.

    Jay
    Paige Passano:
    I was fascinated by the fact mentioned by Dr Gribble that a women who desires 4 kids will have to spend 16 years of her life avoiding pregnancy. It illustrates how the difficult the daily challenge of acheiving one's desired family size! Would you mind providing the source?
    James Gribble:
    Hi--We found the calculation in a publication by the Guttmacher Institute--Unintended Pregnancy and Induced Abortion in Uganda: Causes and Consequences. I'm glad you found it interesting--we did!
    Paige Passano:
    Some countries have tried to expand FP access in underserved communities by changing policies and laws to allow mid-level providers insert IUDs and implants -- and to train midlevel providers with advanced surgical skills to perform tubal ligation and vasectomies -- can you discuss the pros and cons of this approach and give examples in Africa or Asia of the successes in this area?
    Rhonda Smith:

    Hi Paige,

    Here is a technical brief that provides examples of successful programs in which mid-level providers have been trained to insert IUDs and implants, and to provide tubal ligations: http://www.fhi.org/NR/rdonlyres/erkqubqp3hh3hvt6fhp4zvp64ocu2tazrxypd3lxvv2hntamiv5qf54ervujpmgfpsusrlouvgfbep/LAPMbrief4.pdf

    While mid-level providers have been trained to successfully insert implants, there is evidence that training more skilled providers in IUD insertion may be a better approach. While in principle someone with minimal training can insert an IUD, in actual practice such providers may lack the proficiency or may lose them rapidly wiout a large volume of IUD clients.

    Having said that, I should add thay a group that focuses on long-term and permanent methods may be in a better position to answer the pros and cons of these policies than we are. Family Health International has done a significiant amount of research in this area.
    Rhonda

    For Further Information:

    “Family Planning Saves Lives,” an interview with Rhonda Smith, March 2009. (PRB podcast)

    James Gribble and Joan Haffey, "Reproductive Health in Sub-Saharan Africa" (October 2008).

    Rhonda Smith, Lori Ashford, Jay Gribble, and Donna Clifton, “Family Planning Saves Lives” (Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2009).

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    James Gribble, Rhonda Smith Thu, 28 May 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    A Call to Action: World Malaria Day 2009 http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3395/
    Mary Kent:
    How might climate change affect efforts to reduce malaria?
    Joel Breman:
    The most important change would be an increase in warm and wet areas allowing malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes to flourish. Warm and humid temperatures favor a shortened time for the parasite to develop within the mosquito--and a longer life for the mosquito to live, bite and infect people. Of course, more rainfall increases places where Anophelines can lay their eggs. A recent example is the increasing elevation where malaria is transmitted in the Kenya highlands and on Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania.
    Gauthier MUSENGE MWANZA:
    J'aaprends que des scientifiques s'attèlent au développement d'une méthode s'appuyant sur un poisson mangeur de larves pour contrôler les populations de moustiques, afin de lutter contre le paludisme. Pour ce, quelle est l'efficacité de cette méthode de lutte contre le paludisme?
    Joel Breman:
    The use of fish that eat Anopheles larva for malaria control has been widely studied and used in many pilot projects. Experiences in India and nearby countries have shown that the approach works best in urban areas and elswhere where there are large ponds or other mosquito breeding sites. Use of local fish species that adapt to and replicate easily in the environment is better than importing the fish. Care is needed as some types of larvivorous fish eat other fish--and humans also like to eat some species of the fish! In Africa, Anopheles msosquito breeding sites are many, small, and widely dispersed providing a challenge to this type of approach.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    What is the most pragmatic solution to the malaria issue, givem the political, social, and environmental conditions of developing nations?
    Joel Breman:
    This question is key, Rahat. Despite the challenges, there are scientific, operational, financial, and political solutions to malaria control and elimination, and they are being implemented. Communities at risk must participate in malaria programs--assuring compliance by taking their drugs, using and maintaining their bed nets, participating in spraying of houses and understanding why. Presidents of endemic countries and ministers have met to establish global and national goals. Is essential that the current tools for malaria are affordable--free in many low-income countries--and that research for new drugs, insecticides, and vaccines is well supported financially. Perhaps most importantly, we need to train many more malariologists and others--in clinical, service delivery, managerial, laboratory, and research disciplines to confront the huge malaria problem.
    Kakaire Kirunda:
    The Uganda Government and Development partners have tried to up the fight against malaria and this is good. But in one of the policies, every febrile illness is taken as malaria and people are given antimalarial treatment without laboratory diagnosis. There are fears that this is wrong because the potent drugs [ACTs] are going to become useless and bring about resistance problems. What is the way forward on this? There is talk of introducing rapid tests but the costs are still high.
    Joel Breman:
    Great, Kakaire. Each African child has 4 to 12 fever episodes a year--about half or more due to malaria in some areas, but variable, especially with the success of control programs. We would soon run out of the artemisinin combination treatments (ACTs) and other drugs if every such event received treatment--resistance would also be a concern. Microscopic exam of blood is good in health units with careful supervision, but not readily available or precise in most endemic communities. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria parasites are simple to do and give immediate results. Yes we need to get the price lower than about $1 per test. Most importantly, major efforts need to be made to improve the lab and clinical diagosis to find out what causes all the febrile conditions--many of which are life threatening--and treat them properly.
    Esther Nakkazi:
    It seems finally malaria has caught the attention of the developed world.
    1. Why at this point in time is the developed world interested in malaria?
    2. What new approach should we use to eliminate malaria?
    3.What are your thoughts on subsidizing malaria treatment from NGOs. Is it wise?
    Joel Breman:
    There are many reasons why high-income countries are getting interested in malaria because it is mutually beneficial to do so. On a basic level, ten of millions of travelers go from rich to poor malarious countries for visits or to work. A healthy workforce in endemic countries provides opportunity for successful investments. Successful malaria and other disease control programs add to social and political stability. The fact that 1-2 million children die yearly from malaria--perhaps 150 to 300 an hour, has finally got some attention. I think it is very wise to subsidize malaria treatments. The new Affordable Medicines Facility for Malaria (AMFm) advised by a committee convened by the U.S. Institute of Medicine is finally getting off the ground.
    Alberto Rizo, MD:
    What is the status of the Patarroyo's Malaria vaccine?
    How did it test in SubSaharan countries?
    Any future for this vaccine?
    Joel Breman:
    Dr. Manuel Pattaroyo and collaborators in Colombia have been working several decades on different types of vaccines against malaria. The early vaccines were synthetic peptides directed against the blood stage of falciparum malaria. After initial promising highly publicized results in the 1980s, the vaccine did not prove immunogenic or protective in Aotus monkeys, the animal model for P. falciparum. More recently, Dr. Pattaroyo is working on P. vivax vaccines and is again enthusiastic about a subunit-based, multi-antigen, multi-stage product.
    Gayatri Singh:
    Where can we find information about (1) where are malaria medicines
    available in low income countries (particularly Africa) are imported from, and (2) who funds those medicines?
    We are interested both in malaria drugs that reach the public sector as well as the malaria drugs that reach the private market.
    Joel Breman:
    This is not my area of expertise. For part 1. Obviously, within each country the malaria control program or central pharmaceutical office can give some guidance. To find which malaria medicines exist in which countries try UNICEF, the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership, and the U.S. President's Malaria Initiative (PMI)websites. For part 2, major funders are the Global Fund For AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), and the PMI, along with bilateral support from USIAD and many other nations--and contributions from the Gates Foundations and many NGOs.
    Ericka Moerkerken:
    What is your view on the use of biological larvicides (Bti and Bsph) as part of vector control strategies, in particular in the West African context? And what would it take for large donors to support support initatives with a strong biological control component and related operational research?
    Joel Breman:
    Effective use of biological larvicides have been the major tools for the successful onchocerciasis control program where the black fly breeds near flowing rivers and streams. I am familiar with Bti but not Bsph. As mentioned above, Anopheles breeding sites in Africa are many and widely dispersed--some may be as small as "the hoof print of a cow". I think that there may be some use in breeding sites near urban, periurban areas, refugee camps, construction sites. Research will be essential, not just on entomological indices of effectiveness and transmission, but on the impact on human infection and disease as well as on the social aspects of community acceptance, and toxicity if the product to fish, animals and humans if ingested. Develop a strong and clear hypothesis, Erica. Seems a good research project.
    Dr. Josephine Alumanah:
    Curative is very vital, but we please could we step up on Preventive Measures. What do you think ?
    Joel Breman:
    Correct, Dr. Alumah. That is why bed nets, insecticide residual spraying, and environmental management (draining and filling pools of water), particularly in urban/periurban areas is crucial. Also, intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of pregnant women (IPTp) (and, possibly, children) is an important prevention because this combats low birth weight due to malaria infection and maternal anemia and mortality from hemorrhage. Most countries have preventive policies for malaria and are trying to increase their coverage and use rates. Intensified research on drugs and vaccines to interrupt transmission is essential
    Sophia Githinji:
    In Kenya, ITNs have been widely distributed in some districts resulting in impressive coverage. A recent study in western kenya found that 40% of the nets distributed less [than] 1 year before were badly holed due to sticks used to hand them around sleeping area or burnt by the open tin lamps commonly used in the poor settings. The rate of non-use or misuse of nets was high with 16% of the nets not used or diverted to other uses.

    1. Are there measures to improve the physical quality of the nets?
    2.what about sustainability of ITNs provisions, given that most of them are donor funded?
    3. What about the simple environmental measures that eradicated malaria in the Americas and most parts of Europe long before the DDT? iS IN NOT THE HIGH TIME WE EMBACKED ON THESE MEASURES TO BACK UP THE TECHNOLOGICAL MEASURES IN USE TODAY?
    Joel Breman:
    Important, questions, Sophia. 1. Work has gone into this by several manufacturers. The newer long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) should help respond to the need and be the only products now used. 2. Sustainability is always key and donors and countries and communities should have a long-term (more than 5 year) time frame to assure good nets. They are an essential public good--everyone benefits if one family uses the nets 3. 21 countries still have malaria in the Americas, but true, there is less of it and many countries are near elimination. Insecticide residual spray, prompt treatment of presumptive malaria cases, environmental management, and superior surveillance systems were/are important as well as continuing economic prosperity and political stability. I agree with your resounding call to arms!
    laxman:
    what r the efective measures ... applied by family to control malaria?
    Joel Breman:
    Get, use, and maintain your long-lasting insecticide treated bednets, keep your compound and community free of mosquito breeding sites, respond to any fever episode by taking your family member to a health worker right away. Find out what your government and local non-governmental organizations are doing to combat malaria and ask how you can help them do a better job. If they are not doing anything demand that they do so with your village or community committee.
    Vanhmany:
    LLINs are provided for local poor people in the malaria endemic area, but they are imported. How can we [sustain] the use of the LLIN if there is no international support for developing [countries] especially for the poor?
    Is there any research on the use of local product[s] that can be use[d] to control malaria?
    Joel Breman:
    Tanzania has one of the most successful bed net producing factories and the manufacturing site is receiving support to assure a high grade product in large quantities. this can serve as a model. Research on local products as insect repellents and insecticides has occurred in many endemic countries and ICCIPE in Nariobi, Kenya is a leader in this area.
    Gauthier MUSENGE MWANZA:
    Des chercheurs ont développé un nouvel antipaludique qui réactive les plus anciens et contribue à préserver l'efficacité de nouvelles molécules. Si je peux avoir plus d'informations sur ça.
    Joel Breman:
    I am sorry I don't know which "nouvel" drug you are referring to. Malariologists now agree that combining drugs for treatment (as done for HIV, tuberculosis and many cancers) is better than using a single drug. Each drug has a different chemical action on the parasite, thereby decreasing the chance of resistance developing to any of the drugs. This is the basis of ACT to treat malaria, where artemisinin (derived from a plant/Artemesia annua and known to the Chinese for centuries as a cure for "fever") is combined with lumefantrine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, amodiaquine or other drugs.
    Lily:
    What are the most effective methods of distributing malaria medicines to rural areas and ensuring they are used properly? What prospects are there for newer and more effective drugs to come on the market anytime soon? What might be most effective in lowering the price/increasing the availability of current drugs?
    Joel Breman:
    Exceedingly important, Lily--and I am not an expert by any means. UNICEF is. Creativity will be essential to getting the new antimalarials to "the end of the road" and "where there is no road". I don't have the answer... I usually go to the people in the country, in the community, in the household, and ask them how essential medicines get to them and, most importantly what motivates proper use. I would find out if and how oral rehydration salts, antipyretics, condoms, and other health needs are distributed. I would go to the local dispensaries, pharmacies, patent medicine stores, village markets, private/NGO/business clinics and see what they are using and how they receive their meds. There are different systems of distribution, formal and informal. Two problems, partial dosing and sham drugs need attention, the former could be addressed by having blister packets with all drugs combined in one tablet if possible and the daily regimen illustrated on the packet for dosing children and adults; for the second, control of quality needs building into the purchase, receipt, and distribution system. Newer drugs are being developed and tested: the process is long (the FDA just approved artemisinin-lumefantrine for in adults in the U.S.). The ominous finding of decreased sensitivity of falciparum malaria to artemisinin (not ACTs)in Cambodia mandates that the WHO ban on monotherapy/repeat monotherapy with artemisinin compounds be enforced more strictly and that development of newer antimalarial drugs be accelerated. In particular, drugs that interrupt transmission by acting on gametocytes and their maturation should receive priority. The new AMFm plans a novel approach to bring ACTs prices down by subsidizing bulk purchases and flooding markets with good products at fixed affordable prices for countries (perhaps free for patients). see above. The Clinton Foundation has been successful in negotiating lower prices for such essential drugs. We can learn from the HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, diarrheal diseases and other programs on this one.
    laxman:
    what r the latest [strategies] in the world to control malaria?
    Joel Breman:
    Some of this was discussed above:
    The strategies are provision and use of: drugs to treat patients and prevent disease (IPT) in pregnant women and children (being evaluated); personal protection with LLINs; classical vector control with IRS, larviciding, drainage and filling of anopheline breeding sites, and other environmental management steps; research to develop new tools and assure the current ones are used optimally; for this, surveillance/monitoring of human disease and core entomological and parasite indices is needed, including resistance testing; and, long-term funding and collaboration. Sustainability requires training and support of large numbers of malariologists--for operations and research. Community understanding, and their active participation in every aspect of the control program is essential for elimation and eradication to be reached.

    For More Information

    Disease Control Priorities Project, "Malaria" (2006), accessed online at www.dcp2.org/file/9/DCPP-Malaria.pdf, on April 14, 2009.

    Joel Breman et al., "Conquering Malaria," in Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries, 2d ed., ed. D.T. Jamison et al. (2006): 413-32, accessed online at http://www.dcp2.org/pubs/DCP/21/, on April 14, 2009

    Florence Machio, "Will Africa Ever Get Rid of Malaria?" (2007), accessed online at http://www.dcp2.org/features/34/will-africa-ever-get-rid-of-malaria on April 14, 2009.

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    Joel Breman Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    Are Some U.S. Generations Luckier Than Others? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3335/
    Lindsay Patterson:
    How were the divisions between each generation created? Are the years in which one generation ends and another begins meaningful for any particular reason?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Some boundaries are well-established (Baby Boom from 1946 to 1964)--others are new but fairly similar to those used by Strauss & Howe a generation ago. The basic criterion was fluctuations in the birth rate/birth totals, so that boundaries set off large and small generations from one another following the logic of Easterlin's "Birth & Fortune" book. Some historical events help define boundaries, but these also often influenced birth rates so it all works together. Details are described in the 2nd chapter of "The Lucky Few: Between the Greatest Generation and the Baby Boom."
    Bruce Gregor:
    I haven't read your book yet. Do you make a comparison between people born in the low birth rate era and children in any generation in one child families?
    Elwood Carlson:
    The PRB Bulletin on "20th Century U.S. Generations" doesn't go into a lot of detail on number of brothers and sisters by generation; it looks mainly at the presence of parents in children's homes as far as childhood goes. The Lucky Few (the book) does have a graph and a discussion in chapter 3 on number of children in families, including one-child families (which were particularly numerous in the Lucky Few generation).
    Gary Merritt:
    Japan, Korea, Taiwan, PRC, Russia, Pakistan, Australia and other countries went thru equally or more marked cohort transitions across the past 100 yrs compared to North America. Most (certainly some) have good demographic and related socio-economic data. In testing inferences/characterizations of USA 'generation' differences, which are most born out in int'l comparisons and which are least confirmed/replicated? [excellent paper!]
    Elwood Carlson:
    The trick with international comparisons of generations (especially when using demographic criteria like numbers of people in each year of age) is that the birth rate fluctuations and episodes of mass migration that have affected some countries were not always at the same time or of the same duration or magnitude in different places. The MOST replicated one would of course be the baby boom heard 'round the world at mid-century, but even that didn't really get everywhere--Eastern Europe pretty much skipped that postwar boom, or at least postponed it a decade or more. I haven't looked into it, but I'd also bet that the small Lucky Few generation born during the Great Depression and World War II years could be found in many countries all over the world.
    Fran Goldscheider:
    Woody, did you divide some of the longer groups up? I remember reading that the early boomers were quite a lot different from the later boomers (with the later ones having the most difficulty). I used to tease my brother (1939) by telling him HIS cohort had it much easier than mine (1942), ie I'm a 'later' lucky few. And those born in 1929, at least the guys, had to deal with Korea. . . .
    Elwood Carlson:
    Hi, Fran! I'm so glad to see your question here! I did play around with some sub-dividing of generations (as have some of our colleagues, who have talked, for example, about the "depression kids" and the "wartime babies" as separate groups within the boundaries of the Lucky Few). But I've tried to resist the temptation to make every single annual birth cohort into its own "generation"--the logical end-point of such dissections. The generations in this PRB Bulletin are about the same length as those sketched (a GENERATION ago!) by Strauss and Howe, and have quite similar boundaries as well, even though the dividing line criteria were different in the two approaches and developed independently. But yes, I'd agree that such boundaries are only as good as the subject you are addressing with them. Since I was looking first and foremost at the demographic dimensions of generations, grouping together large and small series of annual birth cohorts seems to give the most "bang for the buck." I have heard the criticism that President Obama, for example (born on the cusp of the END of the Baby Boom) is hard to include as a Boomer, while Presidents Bush and Clinton were definitely, clearly Boomers. I guess one shoe never fits all feet, does it!?
    Jennifer Ranville:
    How is the level of commitment in relationships changing from the Lucky Few to New Boomers and what is the impact on marriage and family life?
    Elwood Carlson:
    This is a very interesting question, but I have absolutely no idea what the answer may turn out to be. Maybe YOU have access to some wonderful data set that collected this kind of attitudinal information far enough back into the past so that we could actually compare many generations and answer the question? The trouble with so many of the issues I wanted to address with this study of generations is that we've only started to collect so many kinds of detailed information in the quite recent past, and so we can compare Generation X and sometimes Baby Boomers on a lot of dimensions--but as soon as we start trying to go back to the Lucky Few, or Brokaw's Greatest Generation (who I called the Good Warriors) we rapidly find ourselves staring at a blank canvas with no data in sight. I would be fascinated to find out this answer somehow, though!
    Barbara I:
    How do you define lucky? Do the various groups define it the same way? I am thinking that a group which experienced dire events might feel luckier than one which hadn't, or vice versa.
    Elwood Carlson:
    Your idea about RELATIVE circumstances, comparing what you find as an adult with what you were expecting based on your childhood experiences, is precisely the concept that lies at the heart of Easterlin's book Birth and Fortune; he uses it to explain why the Lucky Few became parents of the Baby Boom. Personally, I would probably define "lucky" in the same way that most other Boomers like myself would--and it would be in many cases by looking at what we in the Baby Boom lost out on--plenty of space in the classrooms while we were in school, easy entry into careers with lots of people crowding around to offer us jobs, unexpected good fortune in early adulthood that led to the earliest marriages and most universal parenthood of any generation in U.S. history, widespread access to defined-benefit pension plans provided by companies that actually survived long enough to deliver on them, and so on. In short, the things that the Lucky Few enjoyed and the Boomers saw evaporate before their eyes. On the other hand, though, women's education advanced dramatically in subsequent generations, each new generation is living longer than the previous one (with less disability in old age)--one of the caveats we probably have to take away from this subject is that each generation re-defines "lucky" based on their own era and their own world-view!
    Mary W Mathis:
    The cutoff for Gen Xers is 1964; however, I have often thought that this is not an appropriate cutoff because many last year boomers actually experienced Gen X issues such as divorce, latchkey arrangements, and so forth. Is year of birth the only way to classify a generation? What are your thoughts?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Using 1964 is certainly not the only possible boundary (see questions above) and every boundary will bring up anomalies. Latchkey arrangements actually started pretty early, though, when mothers of school-age children headed into the labor force in response to incredible demand from a growing economy (see the work of Valerie Kincaid Oppenheimer in particular). I'd guess many Boomers, not just the last few, shared some of the experiences you're talking about. There IS a pretty clear boundary between the boomers and Gen X based simply on generation size, though, and in a lot of way, "size does matter." Richard Easterlin's wonderful little book, Birth and Fortune, outlines a very large number of such systematic differences, ranging from individualized personal attitudes to macro-economic conditions like the unemployment rate, that can usefully be defined in terms of these generations and their boundaries.
    Further, however, there's also another answer to your question--there are at least two COMPLETELY different ways to define generations, in addition to birth year. The PRB Bulletin mentions one of these--the "family generation" that is individual and unique for each parent/child dyad, and does not translate into any kind of larger patterns in the population, would be one of these alternatives. The other alternative, NOT mentioned in the Bulletin or in my book The Lucky Few either one, is an unusual hybrid of these others: when we study immigration, it is the migration event itself that defines "generations" rather than birth year, and we talk about "first-generation" immigrants, their "second-generation" native-born children, and even the "1.5 generation" of people who came into this country as small children accompanying their parents. Here the timing of the border crossing trumps birth year in defining generations!
    Ladislav Rabusic:
    This just a big "Hello" from Ladi (Brno, Czech Republic) to Woody . Congratulations, my friend.

    Elwood Carlson:
    Thank you, Ladi--what generation are YOU, by the way?
    Subhas Yadawad:
    Does it possible to make such a division like lucky few..baby boomers etc in the big contry like India?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Every country has periods of high birth rates and/or rapid immigration, and periods of declining birth rates--these demographic swings can produce fluctuations in the sizes of successive generations in India as anywhere else. Just look at an age-pyramid of the Indian population, and you will see "bulges" of large generations and "gaps" where smaller generations occur. This changing supply of people can have dramatic effects on the lives of the people involved.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    The luck of a generation needs to be looked at from the conditions prevailing during the time a particular generation is living. Luck is a relative issue, and the question itself is volatile. On what basis can it be said that some generations are luckier compared to others?
    Elwood Carlson:
    At least two of the previous questions above were on this same topic; the comments I offered for those questions are also relevant here. Please see the earlier comments?
    Ashley Martin:
    Easterlin's idea of relative income and it's effect on different generations was presented in the Population Bulletin publication on 20th Century US Generations , with the recent economic downturn, what predictions do you have for Generation X and the New Boomers as they grow older and enter the job markert. What effects will there be on family size, education choices, and job opportunities.
    Elwood Carlson:
    Richard Easterlin originally thought that the small size of Generation X would work to the advantage of its members, and it may actually have done so. However, the record for Generation X (continued marriage delays, few children born later in life, problems with men's careers, and so on) testify to the importance of OTHER factors in addition to just generation size. We don't live in a "ceterus paribus" world where all other influences remain unchanged, and things like an economic melt-down are bound to enter into the picture as at least as important as generation size! The New Boomers are now in school, with the oldest of them just starting to emerge and look for jobs and careers. They are the biggest generation so far in U.S. history, and this is not the best of times. It seems like we can make some pretty solid guesses about how that will work out, and personally, I don't like the look of it very much.
    Lanre Ikuteyijo:
    Since some migrants (especially regular ones)enjoy the priviledge of becoming citizens, which generation of immigrants would [you] consider "the luckiest" in terms of migration policies?
    Elwood Carlson:
    This is a fascinating question, and one that gets more complex the longer you think about it. The waves of immigrants in the mid-1800s probably would NOT be the luckiest--many of them ended up fighting in the Civil War for the Union army. The even larger wave of immigrants who poured into the country at the beginning of the 20th century might be good candidates for "luckiest," as they came to a country still actively expanding across the continent and "filling in" the population of the Great Plains and the West; life was unimaginably better for them than the world they left behind.
    On the other hand, maybe we should call the people who have come to the United States in the quarter-century and a little more after the mid-1960s the "luckiest," for they had the good fortune to be trying to immigrate when the old racist quota system was demolished, and new opportunities for entry brought millions of people here in time for the long post-war economic "boom times." It's a tough call! What do you think?
    Judy London:
    Do you have the size (in numbers) of each generation in the workforce today and projected out 10 to 15 years?
    Elwood Carlson:
    I have the sizes of each generation immediately available (in spreadsheets) from all of the censuses of the 20th century down through the census of 2000, and for a lot of the years in between after 1962 when the Current Population Survey begins to be available as an on-line resource. In fact, YOU also have these figures available to you, thanks to the Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples prepared at the University of Minnesota, and available to all of us as a public resource over the internet.
    I have NOT done any population projections of these generations; that's an exercise in creative writing that I haven't yet had time to consider. I did use existing projections of estimated mortality rates to calculate how many people in the various generations would be alive at age 70, including Boomers and younger folks who aren't there yet, so I could do the last couple of sections of the PRB Bulletin and the last chapters in The Lucky Few.
    Sandy Alvarez:
    Recent changes in the Americans With Disabilities Act have been in favor of those with disabilities. Do you foresee a projected growth of more differently abled entering the labor market?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Sandy, I certainly hope so! We are learning more about many different kinds of disabilities every day, and the more we learn, the more disabilities we are discovering throughout our society. Along with this greater sensitivity, some trends like the increasing prevalence of obesity and the cumulative effects of drugs and alcohol mean we have a rising share of our population in each new generation with some kinds of identified disabilities. Unless we make up our minds to allow everybody chances to become productive citizens, we will never be able to handle all the new kinds of problems we are learning to identify.
    Sandy Alvarez:
    In this consumer driven economy, would you consider access to technology a driving force behind who is lucky and who is disadvantaged?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Sometimes a wonder whether I'm "lucky" to be linked so directly to so many people through my computer and my cell phone, but when I consider the alternatives, YES, I think you're right about that. And there is a very clear generational divide in terms of understanding and feeling comfortable with a lot of this new technology. John McCain wasn't comfortable with emails. My mother has said more than once that she feels "left behind" by all this technology that she will never learn how to use. The same advantages (or disadvantages) can be found layered within each generation in terms of education/class/ethnicity differences, but the generational dimension of this contrast is a very important one.
    Ashley Martin:
    Trends in family size and structure over generations are discussed in the PRB Bulletin but nothing about the effect of family planning on women's options to pursue higher education or more demanding careers. What function do modern contraceptives play in these more "progressive" female roles that we see in later generations?
    Elwood Carlson:
    You have zeroed in on my current research, Ashley! The shift in college attendance/graduation has been incredible over recent generations. For the Lucky Few, three men went to college for every two women. In Generation X, it is three women for every two men. There is a lot of research out there right now on WHY this switch has occurred; most of it has been looking at the changing occupations and wages available to men and women, or on the changing attitudes of their parents about college for girls and for boys in each generation. But I like your point more, and I believe that the reversing educational gender gap is very much related to the equally great change in reproductive choices. Now you tell me, which is the chicken and which is the egg? Many scholars are still scratching their heads over that one!
    John Migliaccio:
    Quick note about the MetLife Mature Market Institute study "Boomer Bookends" which looked at national sample of 44 year old boomers and 62 year old boomers> Answers some of these questions. So are the Lucky few counterbalanced by the Unlucky many? This year had the highest live birth rate in US history. New boomers?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Which years are you talking about, John? What year was the study you mention, and does "this year" mean 2009?
    harriet mitteldorf:
    It is reported that 2008 had more U.S. births than any previous year.

    What do you think we can do to achieve a sustainable U.S. population living in balance with other species and our natural resources?
    Elwood Carlson:
    Your question, together with John's previous one, highlights an important difference--between birth TOTALS and birth RATES. We had a lot of babies last year, but mainly because there were so many people in the parenting ages. The actual RATES for women at each specific age are still not very high at all in historical terms. And the New Boomers are already the largest generation of Americans ever in history, not only because they are the "echo" of the Baby Boomers finally having their own children, but also because of all the immigrants who are once again arriving to "leaven the loaf" of American society.
    Harriet, I may have a rather unorthodox attitude about population size and ecological sustainability. I believe we CAN live in balance; indeed, that we must! But I also think that there's still room for more people in America, and that we can grow some more in ways that will actually make our world MORE efficient, clean and environmentally sound, rather than worse. We can't add people indefinitely, of course, but if you've been to Europe and come back to the USA, you realize that this country is still mostly empty.
    Judy London:
    Thanks so much for this scintillating discussion.
    Elwood Carlson:
    I add my thanks as well, to all the interesting people who joined in and contributed their questions. See you all in cyberspace, I hope!

    For further information see:

    Tom Brokaw. The Greatest Generation. New York: Random House, 1998.

    Elwood Carlson. "20th Century U.S. Generations," Population Bulletin 64, no. 1 (2009).

    Elwood Carlson. The Lucky Few: Between the Greatest Generation and the Baby Boom. New York: Springer, 2008.

    Elwood Carlson and Joel Andress. "Military Service by Twentieth-Century Generations of American Men," Armed Forces & Society 35 (2009): 385-400.

    Sharon Jayson. "Who Are the 'Lucky Few'"? USA Today June 24, 2008.

    Eric Zuehlke. "The 'Lucky Few' Reveal the Lifelong Impact of Generation" (2008).

    Richard Easterlin. Birth and Fortune: the Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980.

    William Strauss and Neil Howe. Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. New York: William Morrow & Company, 1991.

    ]]>
    Elwood Carlson Tue, 24 Mar 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    Abandoning Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3185/ Abandon des mutilations génitales féminines : histoires collectées sur le terrain
    L. Ritz:
    By chance, is this practiced by those who come to the United States to live?
    Molly Melching:
    Yes this is a practice that is continued even in the United States. FGC is a social convention necessary for good marriage and respectability within a given ethnic group, so it does not matter where one lives. In fact people often feel they must "prove" that they have not abandoned their traditions when they move to the West and even feel added pressure to continue. It is critical to include the diaspora groups in efforts to raise awareness on FGC as they greatly influence people in the communities at home.
    Ernest Nettey:
    In your experience, what is the relationship between FGM and religion in Africa? Is FGM more widely practised by particular religions in Africa (and in the African diaspora)?If so, what accounts for this and how can can clerics be involved in any intervention?
    Molly Melching:
    People often believe that FGC is a practice recommended by Islam. Many participants in the Tostan program claimed that they wanted to abandon the practice but could not because it was a religious obligation. However, it is not a practice required or recommended by Islam and many well known religious leaders have spoken out against the practice. Tostan always works closely with religious leaders on a national and local level to inform people and answer their questions. We have found that as more and more participants learn the human rights violations associated with FGC and the negative health consequences, they have put pressure on religious leaders to speak up and support their efforts to abandon the practice. We believe that people at the grassroots level can exert strong pressure on all leaders (religious leaders, politicians, local authorities) to help end the practice. This is why it is important to provide in-depth and empowering education to community members in their own national language who will in turn demand action from their leaders.
    palang kasmi:
    culture is linked to practice of FGM in Nigeria.What is the way out?
    Molly Melching:
    When asking people why they practice FGC, they often respond - it's our tradition, it's our culture. People do many things because they have learned it from their parents and their society, often without questioning why they do it. They simply know that if they don't do something that everyone expects them to do, they could be marginalized or even excluded from their social group. Going against the expectations means risking intense disapproval and is difficult if not impossible for one person alone to do. A village mother, for example, would never dream of doing something that could harm her daughter's reputation or chance for marriage.

    Thus,it is important to allow people who practice FGC to discuss the pros and cons of continuing or abandoning together without judgment, shame or blame involved. If people come to consensus as a group that FGC does not help achieve their goals of health, well-being, and harmony, they then need to reach out to the entire extended family to get them on board with the decision. This is why Tostan often holds inter-village meetings that allow people to debate and decide. This often leads to public declaration where the extended family comes together and makes the decision as a unified group. The public declaration marks the moment that the social norm has changed. No one is expected to practice FGC after the declaration, so no one individual is hurt by the decision.

    Kantroo Chaman:
    All these harmful rites and rituals spring from superstitious and backward nature of such societies. The old and irrational beliefs, lack of understanding about value of human life and absence of a modernistic view point, contribute to such inhuman practices. Added to these conditions,be-liefs of male superiority and a female reluctance to part with the traditional norms and also lack of financial amenities stringent enough to give them access to modern education and information media retards the advances in this and other fields of woman empowerment. Do you think that unless a change in the mindset of the women is brought about the advancement in this field will remain a distant dream? So what measures do you suggest to remove this stumbling block? Is it not more important to attend to it at a time when some relatively advanced societies of Asia are experiencing a revival of such movements as are trying to curb any advancement of women?
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Kantroo,
    The story of the communities that have made public declarations to collectively abandon FGC is the story of how this practice can be ended, and why more and more people are confident that FGC can become a thing of the past more rapidly than previously believed. As mentionned above, literally thousands upon thousands of people in Senegal have abandoned this practice, and many more are joining the movement. What is key is that this is not a "western" imposition; this is informed and empowered African communities making decisions for themselves, together, about their health, their human rights and responsibilities, and their futures.

    At Tostan, we have never found that communities lack understanding of the value of human life. In fact, we have found the opposite--we work with villagers who care about others, people who seek peace and who endeavor to build strong community. We have also found them to be rational. If someone hasn't gotten all the information about something, they probably aren't irrational, they are often just uninformed.

    Tostan found that introducing human rights education into our program allowed people to discuss the social practices that would help them to achieve their goals for a more positive future. This meant reflecting on traditions, often for the first time, maintaining positive ones and abandoning those that are harmful.

    Henry Tagoe:
    The conflict of culture and law push such practices underground. What can be done in areas where FGM is outlawed but is still being practiced by a section of the population due to indigenous cultural believes?
    Molly Melching:
    Henry, it is true that we are seeing this practice move underground in many countries. However, within the communities, the practice is not underground--people know who is cut and who is not. That is why the work of communities in Senegal has succeeded--because when communities are empowered and leading a movement, they can reach the people that no outsider could reach.

    In one instance a village in Southeastern Senegal abandoned FGC but the cutter went to another village (that had not abandoned) to cut a girl. It was the women from her own community that took this case to court and even insisted that the woman go to prison. Since she had been part of the declaration, the others felt she had violated their trust and the pact made by the community.

    It is important to inform people of the law, but more important to provide empowering education in national languages before enforcing a law--especially in countries where it is highly prevalent. Otherwise the law risks being very ineffective.
    Irene Maweu:
    A friend told me that is we encouranged MEN participation in the eradication of Female Genital Mutilation and cutting, we would have enormous progresss. Are there countries where me are in the forefront against FGM/C?
    Molly Melching:
    Irene, this is a very good point. In our experience in 7 African countries, men have emerged as strong leaders in the movement for FGC abandonment. We include men in the Community Empowerment Program and as they learn about human rights and responsibilities and realize the suffering the women have undergone, they begin supporting the end of the practice. In fact, a brilliant village man named Demba Diawara helped Tostan to understand that there needs to be agreement among all of the communities of the social network in order for abandonment to occur. He addressed his extended family with respect and led discussions in all these communities until people came to terms with the practice. His work led to the first public declaration of 12 interconnected villages on February 14, 1998. He has been one of the major leaders in the movement ever since.

    Most men have told us: "We just didn't know!" As soon as the women begin explaining some of the problems they and their daughters have experienced, the men realize that the practice must not continue. Because the subject was previously taboo, no one ever discussed FGC, especially among mixed groups.

    It is also important to note that there is no one group that can end this practice by itself--it requires a unified decision by all members of the extended family--men, girls, grandmothers, religious leaders, village elders, minority ethnic groups, majority ethnic groups, the cutters, the diaspora--everyone must be involved. Having the support of local and national government is also critical in this process.
    Kofi Awusabo-Asare:
    It is a good idea to take up the issue of FGM as a cause and see to its logical conclusion.

    My questions are: are we not driving the practice under-ground and secondly, what are we replacing the social system which accompanied the practice? It is not simply wishing away a practice and replacing with formal education only.
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Kofi,

    The practice may be driven underground--but it is impossible for it to stay underground for long when communities themselves are leading and managing the abandonment movement. This is because in communities that have abandoned, they no longer want girls to be cut--which makes it more difficult for families to consider cutting their girls, even "underground". The communities themselves then denounce cases after a declaration because they have ownership of the process and are empowered to act.

    As to your second question, we have found that FGC is only one part of a much larger social system--and that these social systems continue even after abandonment, even if certain aspects have changed. When Tostan enters a community, we first invite the community to define and come to consensus around their goals and objectives for the future. They then learn about and debate human rights and responsibilities over a period of several months. By the end of these sessions, the participants have themselves decided which social practices will help them achieve their goals and which need to be abandoned. In other words, before the program, the participants were operating from a "script" that was handed down to them by their ancestors, society, etc. and which they had never questioned. At the end of the program, the participants have analyzed and debated their received "script" and are empowered to change this script where necessary for achieving their new, commonly determined goals.

    As one village woman once told me once, "Our community is not a museum - things should always change for the better when necessary."
    Marie-Helene Mottin-Stlla:
    Focaliser les stratégies d'intervention sur les MGF sur l'approche juridique ne risque-t-il pas de renforcer la judiciarisation des rapports sociaux ? ce qui se réglait autrefois sous l'arbre à palabre devra se régler devant les tribunaux ?
    Molly Melching:
    Au Sénégal, les milliers de villages qui ont abandonné collectivement l'excision ont pris cette décision historique avec fierté, sous l'arbre à palabres, et non pas de force, devant les tribunaux !

    Lorsqu'on regarde l'exemple du pays où Tostan est né, on voit que l'histoire du processus d'abandon de l'excision ne vient pas de la mise en oeuvre d'une approche juridique, mais de l'appropriation par les communautés d'un programme d'éducation, basé sur les droits humains - en écho aux normes morales qui régissent déjà leurs modes de vie. Le processus d'abandon résulte de la prise de conscience collective des conséquences néfastes de la pratique ainsi que de l'importance de la protection des droits humains et de la possibilité d'un abandon coordonné, inter-communautaire.

    L'approche de l'abandon de l'excision par le modèle communautaire – « l'abandon collectif » - porte ses fruits depuis 1997. Plus de 3548 communautés au Sénégal se sont engagées dans le mouvement ! Au vu de ses résultats, cette approche respectueuse, compréhensive et positive a été retenue non seulement par le gouvernement du Sénégal, mais aussi par l'ensemble des organismes des Nations Unies dans leur déclaration conjointe interinstitutions de 2008.
    Les éléments fondamentaux qui ressortent de ce mouvement de masse en faveur de l'abandon de l'excision au Sénégal montrent qu'il est non seulement peu efficace mais encore contre-productif de focaliser les stratégies d'intervention des MGF sur l'approche juridique.

    Le processus qui mène à l'abandon de l'excision est un processus multisectoriel : à tous les échelons et dans tous les domaines, l'action est concertée. Bien évidemment la justice est concernée, dans le sens où la protection des droits humains de la personne est en jeu, mais elle est concernée au même titre que la santé, l'éducation, la protection de la femme, la solidarité.
    Au Sénégal, la loi de 1999 a suivi le processus d'abandon qui était en cours depuis le serment de Malicounda Bambara en 1997. La loi est venue accompagner le processus et reconnaître l'importance de l'engagement des femmes de Malicounda, Medina Cherif et Baliga. Elle a été fort controversée ; il est prouvé que la loi – non seulement du fait de la difficulté de son application mais aussi à la suite des violentes réactions qui ont suivi sa promulgation – n'a pas eu un impact direct sur la diminution de la pratique de l'excision. Dans des sociétés où la demande d'excision est universelle, la conséquence de la loi – la punition des parents ou de l'exciseuse – comporte moins de danger que la conséquence de ne pas faire exciser son enfant, qui serait alors isolé socialement et dont les perspectives de mariage seraient anéanties.

    Peut-on considérer l'ensemble de la population d'un pays comme des criminels ? Nous ne le croyons pas. Les populations qui pratiquent l'excision pensent par là prendre une décision qui va assurer l'avenir des jeunes filles. On a vu certains effets néfastes de la loi se traduire par l'abaissement de l'âge de l'excision et par la pratique clandestine, renforçant les risques directs pour la santé des filles (voir la stratégie coordonnée pour l'abandon de l'excision en une génération, Unicef, 2005). Cela ne veut pas dire que l'approche juridique est inadéquate ; cela dépend de ce que l'on attend comme résultats. Si l'on veut favoriser l'abandon de l'excision de la part des populations, alors l'approche juridique est insuffisante et elle peut créer des réactions qui renforcent la pratique. L'amendement, l'adoption et la mise en application des lois doivent se faire en consultation avec la populations et ses leaders religieux et traditionnels. Elles doivent être accompagnées de campagnes d'éducation et d'information afin de promouvoir le soutien général de la population en faveur de l'abandon de la pratique.
    Mais l'abandon de l'excision est avant tout le résultat d'un processus participatif, positif, d'évolution sociale au niveau communautaire. Les programmes, comme Tostan, qui ont réussi à faciliter ce résultat à grande échelle, ne portent pas de jugement. Voici un extrait de la déclaration conjointe des Nations Unies (OMS, HCDH, ONUSIDA, PNUD, UNCEA, UNESCO, UNFPA, UNHCR, UNICEF, UNIFEM) : « Il est apparu que les programmes qui incluent des activités d'éducation permettant aux populations de faire des choix, des discussions et des débats qui prévoient des engagements publics et une diffusion organisée permettent d'obtenir le consensus et la coordination nécessaires pour un abandon durable de l'excision au niveau des communautés [...] l'éducation visant à une responsabilisation permet aux populations d'examiner leurs propres croyances et valeurs relatives à la pratique d'une manière dynamique et ouverte, qui ne soit pas ressentie ou perçue comme menaçante ».

    Hanny Lightfoot-Klein:
    dearest Molly Melching,
    It's been rather a long time since we have spoken personally, but I've kept up to date on your extremely important work.
    At the moment I am in Pittsburgh, PA, and doing some consciousness raising among the undergrads and also graduate students and faculty at Chatham University for the next two weeks. I have brought with me the documentary the Morgan Pollok did a couple of years ago about your work and mine. I'm still writing, and lecturing and serving as expert witness in US asylum court and UK tribunals. To date I have won asylum for more than 110 women, and even more importantly, their daughters. It's a wonderful "last career" for an old lady like me. I'm 82 years old by now and still going strong.

    My 30 years of involvement are of course nothing compared to your 38 in Africa. I am so happy for your successes. I have always known that the 4th decade would be the crucial one, and that we are finally beginning to see some real change taking place.

    I have also brought with me a circumcision knife that was not among those that was buried somewhere in the desert in a laying down of knives ceremony. It was sent to me instead, and I plan to live long enough to be able to finally bury it as well.

    I would love to hear from you.
    Molly Melching:
    Dearest Hanny,
    Wow! Thank you so much for this wonderful note. You are such an important reference in the history of FGC abandonment. Tostan recognizes that without the research and activism of those like you who spent years in the field studying FGC, this grassroots movement would not be occurring today in Senegal and other countries. We really appreciate all that you have contributed, particularly given that it was even more difficult to discuss these issues years earlier. Demba Diawara, the villager from Keur Simbara who helped show Tostan the way forward, once told me that if we had raised this issue ten years earlier in his intramarrying communities, we might not have left the community alive as the subject was so taboo. Thus we have much to thank you for.
    We are happy about the throwing down of knives but have found even more important the empowerment of thousands of women who are confidently abandoning this practice because they feel they have choices for the first time.
    How I wish I could give you a big hug from me and from all these amazing women in Senegal!
    SYLLA NDEYE ASTOU:
    aprés l'évaluation du plan d'action MGF 1998- 2001, la stratégie retenue pour mener les activités afin d'atteivdre l'objectif fixé ( eradication MGF AU SENEGAL d'ici 2015)que devont faire pour accélérer l'abandon de la pratique MGF au Sénégal
    Molly Melching:
    Suite à l'évaluation du Plan d'Action National du Sénégal 1998-2001 pour l'abandon de la pratique de l'excision, et dans le cadre du mouvement d'accélération de l'abandon, le Gouvernement du Sénégal a organisé un atelier sous-régional à Dakar du 13 au 15 octobre 2008.

    Cet atelier, rassemblant des acteurs locaux et des représentants des pays voisins du Sénégal (Gambie, Guinée, Guinée-Bissau, Mali et Mauritanie) a été l'occasion de discuter de la mise en place d'une approche partagée par tous ces pays face à un objectif commun.

    Tous les participants se sont accordés sur le fait qu'une seule et même action concertée et commune permettra l'atteinte de l'objectif d'abandon total d'ici à 2015.
    Cette conception d'une action transfrontalière correspond à la vision de diffusion organisée de Tostan. En effet, elle engendrera une action démultipliée, touchant les populations au travers des réseaux communautaires et culturels, en dépit des barrières géographiques et gouvernementales.

    Par ailleurs, nous pensons que l'éducation de base, fondée sur une approche humaine, suivi des réunions inter-villageoises et des déclarations publiques d'abandon de l'excision sont indispensables. Ces déclarations sont des manifestations-clés dans le processus d'abandon et doivent bénéficier d'une plus large publicité. La communication et l'information du grand public jouent un rôle fondamental dans la prise de conscience à un niveau global. Il serait donc souhaitable d'inviter plus de personnes à participer à ces déclarations, notamment des populations de régions voisines dans le cadre strictement national, ainsi que des représentants des régions transfrontalières dans le cas de déclarations dans des régions frontalières.
    Judy Brink:
    Do you think the alternative rites approach works?
    Molly Melching:
    I think alternative rites can work in areas where initiation rites are associated with the actual cutting as long as the alternative rites include empowering education for the entire community. Tostan has found that the most significant action one can undertake is a holistic, human rights based program of non formal education in national languages for all members of the community so that everyone is informed and unified in the decision to abandon the practice.

    Gerry Mackie, an expert on Female Genital Cutting, has written on this subject in the following book: Female Circumcision in Africa: Culture, Controversy and Change. Bettina Shell-Duncan and Ylva Hernlund, eds. pp.253-281. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

    The chapter is entitled: Female Genital Cutting: The Beginning of the End.

    It can be found on the Tostan website under - Resources.
    Dr. Josephine Alumanah:
    I come from an area where FGM is undertaken when women are pregnant. I had a focus group discussion (FGD) with some groups of women from the area. They all supported FGM 'because it is our tradition'. After a comment by one of the women, I decided to do an indepth interview. It was discovered that many families have abandoned the practice, unlike the result of the FGD. They do not undertake the cuttings, but all the other rituals that accompany it, for example, the paying of some money, buying cloths for certain members of the family, buying things for the wife, etc. This is insisted upon particularly if the husband is not from the town. In other words, FGM is undertaken because of the benefit, the people do not care about the act itself, but what they stand to gain. This piece of information did not come out during the FGD because nobody wanted to be the one letting out the secret. To them the tradition is still on, no matter what form it takes. What do you think?
    Molly Melching:
    Dr. Alumanah, this is so interesting! Thanks so much for sharing this information.

    I attended a UNICEF conference last May featuring Cristina Bicchieri, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania who wrote a great book entitled: "The Grammar of Society". She explained that social norms are most often followed not because people have consciously chosen to do so, but rather because of the expectations of the others in the group. In some cases, people may very much want to abandon FGC but do not want to bring this up in public for fear of being seen as "traitors to their culture" in the eyes of others. Many people in the same group may secretly want to abandon but do not realize others also want to abandon and so continue to practice or refuse to admit they have abandoned so as not to feel the disapproval of society. This is what Professor Biccieri terms: "pluralistic ignorance".

    One village leader explained to me that she had long wanted to abandon FGC but did not dare mention this to anyone. She said she listened on the radio to declaration ceremonies for FGC abandonment and was so happy. I asked her why she had not spoken out earlier to others in the community about ending the practice. "I dared not" she said "for fear of being ridiculed." It was only when her relatives from other villages who had abandoned came and spoke with her community that they publicly discussed ending for the first time. "I was so surprised to find out that my own neighbors were ready to stop and even my best friend! Her namesake died of a hemorrhage and her own daughter went to the hospital and I didn't know it!" she told me.
    Perhaps people that you interviewed had the same fear of admitting to having ended the practice. Could the gifts and "benefits" perhaps have been used as a camouflage - visible signs of a ceremony needed to convince others that the practice continues? In this way, they are protecting themselves from potential outside judgement from other relatives who have not abandoned and would expect them to continue.
    Sarah G. Epstein:
    Does your program discuss contraception with the women so they can space their children and stop when their families are complete?
    Molly Melching:
    Yes Sally. This is very important in the Tostan program. Tostan feels it is critical that women learn about reproductive health and we address this not only in the health module but also in the first module of the program on Human Rights. We found that without first doing Human Rights education, women were afraid to discuss these issues with their husbands. Both the human rights and health modules gave the women the confidence and the information they needed to discuss convincingly with their husbands about the need for birth spacing. Tostan encourages a very gentle but firm approach and the men have been very supportive both in this area and also in ending FGC.
    Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs:
    Given the new U.S. administration, and the new Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, with whom you have worked before, what would you like to see on the U.S. foreign policy agenda in the next four years?
    Molly Melching:
    We at Tostan believe that the new administration will fulfill its promises to increase development support to the poorest and most marginalized communities around the world. We would humbly recommend, however, that they avoid repeating mistakes of the past by leveraging the best of our collective knowledge to create a new kind of development that sees individuals and communities in the developing world not as "recipients" or "targets" but as partners and collaborators in our common search for a better world.

    Specifically, we would recommend:

    -Using proven, cost-effective strategies to better involve local communities in all of the processes that determine how development programs are identified, conceptualized, planned, implemented, managed, and evaluated. Communities have a fundamental right to a strong voice in these areas--yet very often are not sufficiently listened to.

    -Challenging US Government agencies and their partners to take a more holistic, comprehensive view of development and promote strategies that would allow programs to collaborate and reinforce one another, rather than running parallel programs seeking complementary aims without communication or discussion. To this end, the administration should seek to support programs that engage communities across a wide range of areas, providing a foundation for development that can then leverage the amazing knowledge that already exists within communities.

    -Increasing the use of cross-cutting strategies that focus on relevant knowledge and practical skill sets in multiple areas--which can greatly increase sustainability and dramatically reduce development costs in the long-term. Beyond any specific goal related to a single area in health, economic development, democratic engagement, etc, a primary goal of all development programs should be to reinforce local capacity so that the community itself can lead future projects.

    -Increasing the use of strategies that focus on building local and in-country skills rather than simply purchasing short-term fixes from outside "experts."

    -Redefining accountability standards to be more stringent in evaluating results, while also taking into account the mounting evidence that points to the necessity of longer-term interventions. Just as transformations in civil society have taken (and continue to take) decades to happen here in the US, so too will they take such time in other countries. This does not mean that change cannot happen rapidly, just that we must be patient in waiting for movements and leaders to emerge.

    -Increasing involvement of diaspora communities in development efforts in their home countries. These communities have unique insights into the realities of truly living in the global village, and their investments in their home communities can be combined with other development efforts to increase impacts. This can also be a wonderful point of entry to increase dialogue and improve relations with these communities in the US and Europe.

    -Using of human rights as a tool for promoting human dignity and changing harmful social norms, notably by the US ratifying CEDAW, Convention on the Rights of Children, and upholding the Geneva conventions.

    -Promoting dialogue and discussion as a means of resolving problems between countries. Solutions outside of diplomacy dramatically affect the life, lives, and livelihoods of the poor.

    -Supporting financial and diplomatic involvement of the US in the renegotiation of climate change agreements post-Kyoto 2012 including funds for mitigation and adaptation projects in Sub-Saharan Africa (Senegal, Mali, Mauritania and many other countries are greatly suffering from deforestation, erosion, and desertification.)
    Margaret Thuo:
    What is UNFPA-UNICEF Global Joint Programme and Trust Fund?

    Answer

    The Goal of the UNFPA-UNICEF Joint Programme and Trust Fund is accelerated abandonment of FGM/C in 17 countries in Africa within a generation and demonstrated by 40% reduction of the practice among girls aged 0-15 years and at least one country declared free of FGM/C in 5 years (2008-2012). This global initiative is being implemented for five years (2008-2012).
    The first 8 countries to receive support in 2008 were: Djibouti Egypt, Ethiopia, Guinea Conakry, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Senegal and Sudan. Other nine countries still to receive funding are: Eritrea, Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Mauritania and Gambia. UNFPA and UNICEF are calling upon development partners to support the Trust Fund so that FGM/C abandonment is scalled up and accelerated.

    From Margaret N. Thuo, Technical Adviser UNFPA and Coordinator, UNFPA-UNICEF Joint Programme and Trust Fund
    Molly Melching:
    [see above]
    Katrina Hann:
    Could you comment on the response to provisions outlawing FGM/C that result in dramatically lowering the age of girls being cut? What kind of approach do you think is appropriate both at the legal and community level?
    Molly Melching:
    As I mentioned above, we have found that it is important to consider the timing, and to work to pass laws at the right moment so that they build upon community interest and will not be seen as an imposition on practicing communities and as unenforceable by laws. Typically, that moment can come later in the process of awareness raising and community abandonment, so that the law reinforces an existing movement rather than attempting to shift a norm through the law alone.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    Female genital mutilation/cutting is a social ill that needs to be addressed at the community as well as individual levels. However, there should be no excuses for ignorance or the practices that come out from them. Do you believe that stiff social penalties will have any measurable impact?
    Molly Melching:
    We have seen that the social penalties that emerge naturally when communities make collective decisions are indeed one of the ways this practice changes. Once everyone in the community has been reached, and been made aware of the decision to abandon FGC, and once people are aware of the consequences of FGC, and they are aware that a national law has been passed, then we would agree that ignorance is a harder argument to make.

    However, we have also found that we need to be careful if we start blaming people for being ignorant. Most often they simply have not had access to information presented in an understandable and non judgmental way. I say that we have to be careful because, for example, even my own great grandparents would not have understood what germs were, and would probably have laughed at the idea behind germ theory (the man who discovered germ theory died destitute and a laughing stock). Now should I think of my great grandmother as "ignorant" and say I have no tolerance for her? Of course not. I think she was making decisions based on the information she had at the time. It may be easy to chalk up disparities to ignorance, because then it seems like it is people's own fault. But actually we have found that all communities, whether in West Africa, East Africa, or elsewhere, tend to take action when given trust and respect.
    Amy Rogers:
    I recently watched a video about FGM/C practices in Sierre Leon and one of the alternatives they were offering the practioners who performed the ceremonies was an education. A lot of the women who were performing the FGM/C said they only did it as a source of income. So organizations were teaching these women how to read and how to farm in order to get a job. Do you personally think that this approach to solving the problem is effective? And is this being done in other African countries as well? If so are there noticable differences in the amount of people who no longer feel the need to practice FGM/C?
    Molly Melching:
    As I mentioned above, simply educating the women who perform the FGC operation will not get rid of the problem.

    FGC is a social norm that is deeply rooted in a community as a whole. Evaluations have proven that these strategies of "compensating the cutter" are not effective--families either continue using others to do the cutting, or the cutters themselves return to the practice because of demand.

    However, working with the cutters is extremely important, as they are very influential, and often have some of the most important experience and information about the consequences of FGC. But without the support of religious leaders, traditional leaders, influential men and women, diaspora members, and everyone else, the practice will not end.

    In the long-term these women do need to find other sources of income--something that we at Tostan have tried to support, as we support many women by helping them generate additional income. But not as a strategy to end the practice of FGC.
    Nyakikongoro Rosemary:
    Is there any country where FGM has been completely abandoned or combated? What strategies did they use? The question of FGM looks like a cultural spiced issue, yet it affects women’s health and its women in most cases that are behind this vice, what penalty can applied to such women and men who are doing it? How have governments in countries where they have tried to combat this vice reacted?
    Molly Melching:
    We are now hopeful that Senegal can become mostly FGC free by 2012. Keep in mind that there will be individuals that never give up this practice, and also that this abandonment will not completely show up on the national surveys until all girls born recently have the chance to go through the age of cutting. So we may not know conclusively until 2020 or 2025, but we expect the national prevalence to continue declining in the interim.

    Another example that comes to mind is Niger: the practice disappeared (for the most part) from Niger in the first half of the 20th Century, but the reasons behind this aren't clear.

    What we do know is that it is almost impossible for this practice to change unless:
    -community members have a chance to discuss the practice and its potential consequences
    -community members have a way to see those in their social network publicly declare their abandonment of the practice.

    We also know that it is likely that an entire community will either abandon or not abandon, but less likely that only a few people will give up the practice while others continue. There may be moments where this is true, but since the practice is tied to so many important values, the group that wants to stop will either have to a) convince others to join them b) go back to cutting or c) decide to remove themselves from the group.

    What has been fascinating for us at Tostan is to learn the history of the abandonment of Footbinding in China, which followed a similar trajectory. This was an entrenched cultural practice that disappeared in one generation. (See Gerry Mackie article: The Beginning of the End on the Tostan website.)

    It is important to note that abandonment of this kind has happened not only with Tostan's program, but with other programs, at a smaller scale.

    As noted above, at Tostan we do not believe that social norms should be changed through outside penalties; and if penalties are involved they should be decided upon locally or, if nationally, in close consultation with the communities involved.
    Ken Ozoemenam:
    How do we deal with situations where FGM/C continues underground because government does little or nothing to monitor existing laws and policies against it?
    Molly Melching:
    Ken, this is indeed the situation in some of the countries where we work, and we have found that once communities abandon the practice, they will then seek to use the law to enforce the new norm when necessary. And, we have found that while law enforcers may not want to actively pursue every potential case of FGC in a region where 96% of the population practices, they will certainly respond to a case when the community engages them in dialog and asks them to intervene and apply the law.
    limia:
    I think that to combat FGM/C we need to target the whole community. [Do] you think the effective Behavioural communication change approaches should be used?
    Molly Melching:
    We totally agree that the whole community needs to be involved. However, we also have found that behavior change communication is not a stand-alone solution to this issue.

    Many of those in the Behavior Change for Communication school of thought still conceptualize the problem as one of information--if we can just get the right messages to the right people, they will change their behavior. FGC is one area where this is not the case. In fact, we have found entire communities where individually most people wanted to abandon, but no one had actually abandoned. Why? Because information and individual willingness is not enough. If a mother decides not to cut her daughter, she needs a guarantee that her daughter will not be ostracized because she isn't cut. And that guarantee can only come about when she is able to verify that others also care about the issue and want to abandon too, and find a way to publicly coordinate a shared abandonment. That is when her daughter is safe, and this is why the public declaration is so important.

    This does NOT mean that communication does not need to be happening at the international, national, regional, and local level. All it means is that this is not a case where we should expect behavior change. Attitude change, yes, but not behavior change.

    By the way, we have found that community members themselves are the best "designers" of the messages. This is because no one else knows better how to talk to your mother about a sensitive issue than you do.

    Can outside agents (whether from other parts of the country or other countries) help them work on these messages and test multiple approaches? Certainly. But the campaigns must be led locally and reflect a true belief. Just as we here in the US are suspicious of motives when we see others promoting a certain viewpoint, so too are the communities with whom we work.

    We do understand that international groups will continue to distribute prescriptive messages aimed at ending this practice, and for this reason we are increasing our training capacity so that we can share our model and help people build upon what the communities of Senegal and beyond are doing. We are also building new partnerships and strengthening existing ones so that the messages coming out complement, rather than work against the efforts in our community members.

    A Thompson:
    Have you heard of / What do you think of a recent practice called genital "rejuvenation" that is gaining popularity among many Western women? Genital “rejuvenation” includes plastic surgical procedures based around a desire to regain virginity ... and to regain beauty & aesthetics after childbirth .... These procedures are often openly advertised by health practitioners in popular media including daily newspapers, TV commercials, and radio in cities in the U.S.

    Even with medical facilities and standards superior to those of many developing countries, it has been reported that these procedures carry high risks of infection, nerve damage, scarring, and non-reversible loss of sensation.

    Harmful beliefs and societal pressures are responsible for this practice in the U.S. as much as in other regions of the world, which include a high value placed on virginity and youthfulness; popularity of cosmetic procedures of all types (where health takes a backseat to beauty); and the widespread visibility of sexually-exploitive industries, particularly with the increase in internet technology.

    For these reasons, do you think that this practice should also be classified as FGM and, if so, should a zero-tolerance policy be adopted by Western health practitioners as well?

    Thanks.
    Molly Melching:
    A, I'm very glad you asked this question.

    In general, I would say that what adult women want to do to their bodies is their own decision, and should not be compared to a practice that is almost always done to young girl children. In fact, I have in the past said that I cannot disagree with some adult African and African American women that have decided to have the practice done to themselves--while I don't personally want to do it, it is their decision and their body.

    Similarly, if women in the US are making this decision, I don't know how much room I have to criticize. Although I must tell you I think it is sad to see so many people who are already lovely and unique changing their appearance to respond to social pressure. And I think we need to change the appearance-driven nature of our societies so that we no longer expect this of anyone.

    But I also know that some women who have had difficult births have more extreme complications, and/or difficulties in finding sexual pleasure. I do not want to lump these women in with those who may be simply fulfilling the social ideal of what they are "supposed to look like". And even then, the argument to me is primarily about consent, and to compare consent you would need to look at each individual case.

    One more answer to your question: At Tostan we have never used the term "Zero Tolerance." In fact, we have begun to refer to February 6th as Community-Led FGC Abandonment Day to better represent that this is a community issue at heart, one that needs SUPPORT from all levels but will be LED through local and regional efforts.

    It bears mention that the only way Tostan has found a road to abandonment is through tolerance, not intolerance. In fact, this topic only came up in our program because we were willing to treat communities with respect and let them draw their own conclusions based on objective information. By listening to people, understanding their needs, and encouraging them to take action on their own terms, we have found success.

    Richard Cincotta:
    I taught high school in Kenya in the late 1970s. At the time, there was a vigorous debate going on, some of it carried in the newspapers. Surprisingly, perhaps the most vocal opponent to ending FGC was a white, non-Kenyan female anthropologist who argued that meddling in such African social traditions smacked of neo-colonialism. Upon returning to the U.S., I found that, at that time, her opinions seemed to resonate within some "Marxist-academic" circles. My question is: Who are today's opponents of ending FGC, both in FGC-practicing ethnic groups, in national institutions in those countries, and abroad (the West)? And how vocal, and how well supported, are they?
    Molly Melching:
    Richard, that is an excellent question. There remains a small but sometimes vocal group of anthropologists who have argued that for the West to be involved in this practice at all is cultural imperialism. Some of these voices are African, some American and other nationalities. Honestly Tostan has not had too much concern with their objections of imperialism or colonialism, since ours is a 99% African organization; since we didn't introduce FGC as a topic--our community members did, on their own; and since the movement for abandonment has been led at the community level, not from the West.

    Several anthropologists have also gone beyond charges of imperialism to argue that this practice is simply not physically harmful, and that all arguments of harm are constructed by the West. We have not given much credence to this claim, as to us the removal of a body part is harmful, and as this directly contradicts the stories and experiences we heard about from communities in Senegal. All of the arguments I have seen center on hypocrisy between the West and Africa, for example that we demonize FGC in Africa but say nothing when women do something similar in hospitals in the US. To that all I can say is that Tostan's mission is for Africa, and if the day comes that we work with US communities, and if those communities raise this as an issue, we will support them with the same fervency we have supported African communities.

    Ironically Tostan shares many anthropologist's concerns about imperialism, which is why our program is so deeply rooted in local traditions and culture--song, dance, poetry, theater, and dialog in local languages are at the heart of our program. We believe that communities have a fundamental right to a leading voice in their development process.

    Even our work in human rights and responsibilities centers on their application to African culture--far from presenting Human Rights as rules to be followed, we ask participants to debate and discuss them, decide how and if they are applied, and what actions may be appropriate.

    Perhaps some anthropologist would prefer that Africa be left alone. We at Tostan however are seeing that change is coming to Africa regardless of whether we are there or not, and thus we would rather be there to be an advocate for communities in helping them lead their own development.

    J Kishore:
    Female genital mutilation/cutting is mainly religious and cultural in origin. Changing [one's] religion or culture is a difficult task but one has to do it. What action one has to take in this direction?
    Molly Melching:
    Hi J, I think my answers above have hopefully addressed this question. Religion and culture do take time to change, and can only change authentically and productively through internal means. Our program helps to facilitate this process so that communities can help decide what they want to work towards, and what they can leave behind.
    Mala:
    Dear Molly
    I have been working on raising awareness of the practice of FGM within the health professionals. This year i am finishing my dissertation on FGM. I am looking at [the] Vagina and how different societies and FGM communities view it. [The] Vagina is seen as a sexual organ by most but the anatomy of physiology is much more complex. I feel an open discussion about [one's body] needs to be included in the teaching programme. [I] wonder how you feel about it?
    I would be so interested in your comments.
    Mala Morjaria
    (Midwife/Sexual health specialist,Practice Nurse and a National Childbirth Antenatal teacher.
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Mala, thanks for your question and your work. It is important that health professionals around the world be informed about this practice and trained to handle it both medically, and also in terms of understanding and respecting the realities of their patients.

    A large part of Tostan's education program centers on helping participants understand the human body, disease and illness, the reproductive cycle, and many other related areas. While we are very careful to be respectful (for example facilitators have the option to use an "envelope of discretion" to show pictures that may been perceived as disrespectful or upsetting to certain community members), we have found that there is extremely high interest in this area, and very little objection from the community. I feel that this module is a key component in allowing women to discuss the issue of FGC fully.
    Mbeinda Diop Lamotte:
    Depuis que la lutte contre les mutilations génitales féminines a commencé, les progrès sont en dents de scie. Ne devrait-on pas prendre plus au sérieux l'aspect sociologique? Il y'a recrudescence, parce que c'est un problème de croyance et parmi ceux qui tiennent à la pratique, on peut citer des gens dits modernes, mais qui tiennent à leur cultures.
    je pense que d'autres stratégies pas encore usitées doivent être explorées.
    Molly Melching:
    Merci Mbeinda.
    Nous pensons qu'en ce moment le Sénégal est en train d'expérimenter une réelle prise d'élan dans le processus d'abandon de l'excision. Il n'est plus question d'évolution en dents de scie en ce qui nous concerne. En effet, notre stratégie est très précisément centrée sur les réalités sociologiques des populations concernées.

    C'est un peu la faute de Tostan si nous ne sommes pas plus connus du grand public. Mais suite à l'évaluation de l'UNICEF qui a été rendue publique la semaine dernière - une évaluation qui prouve de manière incontestable l'efficacité de notre approche - nous commençons à mettre en place des stratégies nationales et internationales qui nous permettront de partager les expériences de Tostan et de nos partenaires communautaires, afin que tous puissent mieux comprendre ce mouvement d'abandon de l'excision cette marche vers un développement durable et un épanouissement des communautés.

    Les communautés n'ont de cesse de nous dire que le moment est arrivé et qu'ils comptent sur nous tous pour les accompagner et les aider à réaliser leur avenir.
    Prof. Julie Cwikel:
    As someone who has researched this area, it seems to me that one of the stumbling blocks is the lack of re-education and training of the women who perform FGM and for whom this supplies a modest income. Has anyone thought of retraining them to offer semi-professional support to pregnant and birthing women in order to help to decrease preventable maternal mortality?
    Molly Melching:
    Tostan believes that female genital cutting needs to be approached at the community level. Education and the empowerment of women over time through a holistic program can lead communities to abandon FGC together. This is critical for community-led growth, growth that leads to well-being and improved living conditions in general.

    We do not believe that the practitioners, non-practitioners or the women who perform the FGC should be singled out from their communities. And simply re-training women who perform the FGC operation will not end the harmful practice. These women, along with their communities, need to be educated in basic yet critical topics of democracy, human rights, problem solving, health, hygiene, and management skills. These topics along with the creation of Community Management Committees (as Tostan calls them) ensure that a community works together for the present and the future by encouraging and empowering people to make important decisions and create income-generating activities that support their families.

    Although they certainly participate in the practice, cutters do not cause the practice. They in fact offer a supply in response to the community's demand. Certainly, as members of the community, they have a role in creating that demand--but are not the sole reason for the practice. As long as communities want to do this practice, they will find ways to do it, even if one of the cutters has "laid down" her knife.

    Esia-Donkoh, Kobina:
    Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) is perceived to be a developing country issue. But i am aware also of Genetal re-Modelling (GM) practiced in developing countries. Is FGM practice the issue of practice or the personnel/practitioners involved?
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Esia, I responded to this question in the pre-questioning phase. You will find my answer appearing shortly. Thanks so much for your interest and a good question.
    Pfor Angela Okolo:
    Do you work on this with a focus group in the communities?
    What do the men think about the practice of FGM?
    What do the women who have had this practice inflicted on them think? Are they ready to join in the campaign?
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Professor Okolo, as you will see in some of my other responses, the campaign was started and is being continued by the women who once carried it out. Men are sometimes shocked by the practice, as they are not typically involved in it. Men have become some of our most dynamic leaders in this area.
    APPOLONIA ADEYEMI:
    What is the international community doing to tackle situations where government officials take neutral positions and are inactive on issues of female genital cutting because of strong cultural beliefs, which they do not want to be seen countering and how is this being tackled, considering that this attitude, action or inaction could send the wrong signal to the general population?
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Appolonia,

    This is an interesting question. In our experience, these officials respond best to the people who elect them. So when movements begin to abandon the practice, and the community approaches these officials in peaceful, constructive ways, they tend to respond well.

    As I have mentioned in several other answers, we do not think it is the sole responsibility of the government officials to begin enforcing the laws. In some countries this would mean arresting millions of people, even their own families. So it is simply not feasible. What is required is a joint effort of all involved to end the practice in unison.

    Similarly, while their inaction does send a message (that they are not holding people accountable to this law), their inaction does not cause the practice alone.

    rafat salami:
    some communities i know justify female circumcision by saying that it reduces promiscuity. some circumcised women also do not think it is harmful. they think we can advocate for safer ways of doing it. how can we address such matters in communities who do not think it is important to stop female circumcision?
    Molly Melching:
    Rafat,

    A great question--one I expected to see much earlier. There have at times been arguments to "medicalize" the practice of FGC so that it can be done in hospitals "safely." The communities we work with have rejected this argument because while it is only a partial solution--no medical practice is 100% safe--and it does nothing to address what they see as a key part of the equation--the human rights of the girl involved.

    The promiscuity argument is a prominent one, but one that is not credible when communities investigate further.

    We do think that women who have been cut have the right to determine what they believe about the practice, as it pertains to their experience. This is one major reason why we have never used the term "mutilation"--we do not want to call women who have been cut "mutilated."

    It is important to note that Tostan works with populations who do not abandon the practice, and populations who don't practice at all. Abandonment is not a pre-requisite for being in our program or having access to full services from Tostan. Our entire model is based on real decisions being taken from the heart--the heart of individuals and the heart of the community and its social network. If people are seen to be "faking," it simply won't work, and the movement would disappeared long ago.
    Meskerem Bekele:
    In our country Ethiopia all kinds of FGM/C practiced. From those countries which practiced FGM, Afar and Somali region practiced the most severe type of FGM which known as infibulations.

    As the research and our organization supervisory visit [showed] us there is some improvement in these areas also. But in these regions and in other regions of our country people, even educated people, believe that type two kind of FGM should be continuing.

    Last time when we discussed [this on] our radio program, which is produced by Population Media Center Ethiopia and broadcasted in the national media, even educated person’s agree that for the continuation of Type two (which is known as in our country Sunna type). These are some of their [reasons] for the continuations of type two FGM/C :
    _ We couldn’t totally avoid what [is] our society’s norm.
    _ Our elders use it to control their girls from unwanted sex or before marriage sex.
    _ We society people also want to control our [children] so we should use this method.
    _We men are tired and boring in every aspect of our life. We couldn’t make love for our ladies because of life pressure so why our ladies suffer because of sexual feelings? So we do use FGM for their purpose.
    _How can we totally stop such kind of practice in once? We must do this step by step.

    These and others are their comments and questions.

    So how could we practice zero tolerance in our country case? What strategy we can use? Specially through media?
    Molly Melching:
    Hi Meskerem. As you will see in my response to A Thompson below, we at Tostan do not use the "Zero Tolerance" approach. And when we expanded our program to East Africa--specifically Somalia and Djibouti--we were told that the only reason we were accepted was because we did not judge people for carrying out this practice, and met them where they are.

    As I noted above in my response to Limia, my recommendation to you would be use media and other communications avenues to reinforce work at the community level, rather than trying to convince people to abandon through messages. You can also use the radio to encourage discussions and dialog. And remember that social change takes time. In the North of Senegal, it took us almost 6 years of careful, grassroots work before communities began discussing abandonment.

    As you mention, these are deeply felt, deeply held traditions, and each person in each community may perceive them differently. And, even if you were to find a "magic" message that worked for many people, as I mentioned above they may still not be able to abandon, because they also need to find a way to coordinate their abandonment without risking social condemnation.

    Social norms are often practiced without full knowledge of "why"--for example hand shaking in the West. I can go ask 100 of my friends why they shake hands, and none or very few of them will give me the real reason: because they are supposed to. Now imagine that I ask them "Hey! why are you still shaking hands? Are you ignorant? Stupid? Don't you know this is dangerous?! Zero Tolerance for Hand-Shakers!"

    Their answers will quickly become defensive, and they will begin to find all kinds of reasons and justifications--my father did this, we do this at my church, etc. What is ironic is that these practices--both FGC and handshaking--DO have incredibly complex value systems associated with them. But we wont always get those as responses on a survey.

    So while it is fascinating to look at all the reasons people gave to you for keeping this practice, keep in mind that these may not always be the actual reason. Each person's decision will be motivated by a lifetime of experience and complex layers of moral norms, social norms, legal norms, etc. And as I mentioned above in relation to Dr. Bicchieri's article, many people will not have made an active decision based on a careful argument. They will simply do the practice because they perceive it to be "normal."

    Fatou Diouf:
    Bonjour Moly

    question n° 1
    vous fait du bon travail au Senegal,mais malgré les efforts déployés, il persiste des poches de résistance.
    A votre avis, qu'est-ce qui justifie cette situation ?

    question n02
    le Senegal est entrain de préparer le lancement de la campagne sur l'accélération de l'abandon. des MGF.
    Qu'elles activités pertinentes suggérez-vous dans le programme de cette campagne?

    question n°3
    Il a été constaté que la reconversion des excissesuses en matrone n'a pas permis l'abandon définitif des MGF.

    Ne pensez-vous pas que le financement de projets porteurs selon la spécificité de la zone serait plus efficace?
    Molly Melching:
    Bonjour Fatou,
    Question 1 - L'expérience de Tostan nous a montré que l'abandon de l'excision ne peut se faire qu'à partir d'un consensus de la famille étendue. Il arrive que des familles veuillent abandonner l'excision mais sans consulter les autres membres de leur groupe, il est quasiment impossible de prendre cette décision. C'est pour cela que Tostan facilite des rencontres inter-familles dans leur pays et même avec les ressortissants de la Diaspora. Pour Tostan, l'étincelle qui déclenche cette prise de décision est le Programme de Renforcement des Capacités Communautaires, tout particulièerement le module sur les Droits Humains. C'est pour cela que nous nous sommes fixé pour objectif d'atteindre les zones où les populations n'ont pas encore pu bénéficier d'un programme d'éducation de base en langues nationales.
    Question 2 - Nous prévoyons de faire un séminaire de partage au mois de mars avec tous les partenaires de la société civile et du gouvernement sur l'approche qui a abouti à ce mouvement historique pour l'abandon de l'excision. Actuellement nous mettons en oeuvre le programme Tostan dans plus de 450 communautés à travers tout le pays et nous soutenons les participants du programme dans leurs activités de sensibilisation auprès des populations ne bénéficiant pas directement du programme.
    Plusieurs déclarations d'abandon de l'excision sont prévues pour 2009. Une déclaration nationale d'abandon est prévue en 2012.
    Question 3 - La compensation financière ou la reconversion des exciseuses n'a jamais été au centre de la stratégie de Tostan pour l'abandon de l'excision. Nous pensons que l'abandon durable ne se fera qu'à partir d'une décision collective de tous les membres de la communauté et de la famille étendue - jeunes, adultes, leaders traditonnels et religieux, et exciseuses. Les évaluations de Population Council ont montré que la stratégie qui se concentre sur les exciseuses n'a pas donné de résultats durables.
    AISSA:
    Pourquoi cette pratique perdure ?? traumatisante pour la personne humaine ?? qui n'est soutenue ni par le bible ni par le coran? Encouraagee par l'egoisme masculin?
    Molly Melching:
    L'excision est une pratique qui dure depuis plus de 2,000 ans. Elle est donc profondément ancrée dans les normes sociales des groupes ethniques qui la considèrent comme un critère de respectabilité et de bonne réputation pour leurs filles. D'après notre expérience, la seule façon de promouvoir l'abandon de l'exicision, c'est l'éducation!
    Sarah G. Epstein:
    Molly,

    In the hygiene portion of the TOSTAN program, are village women informed about contraception and how to access birth control clinics?
    Molly Melching:
    Sally, These subjects are addressed in the health module of the Tostan program. Very important. We wish our participants had more access to good health facilities. Unfortunately this is not the case in most of the areas where we work.
    Susan Tordella-Williams:
    Molly- How are you, it's Susan Tordella-Williams. What can we do from the USA to support your efforts in Africa?
    Molly Melching:
    Hello Susan!
    Many people in the US help Tostan by contributing funds to adopt villages so that community members can benefit from our Community Empowerment Program which lasts three years. All information on this can be found on the Tostan website - www.tostan.org
    The support from individual donors like yourself have greatly contributed to ending FGC in Senegal and other African countries.
    Andrea Parra:
    Historically, there has been a "missionary or savior"'s approach to the issue of FGM. Feminist from the North and the West are set to "save" African women from themselves. Most attempts resulting in criminalization of the practice end up also criminalizing women as in the majority of the countries where it is practiced it's done so by women. How can we approach the issue from a perspective of true solidarity and eliminate the "us/them" division?
    Molly Melching:
    Great question Andrea. Tostan does not use a judgmental approach but rather informs and educates people so that they can make their own decisions. When people themselves make the decision to abandon because they understand the human rights and health issues involved, the decision is sustainable. Former practioners themselves are then the ones reaching out to their relatives and neighbors to recruit others for abandonment, not outsiders.
    All Tostan field staff (over 800 people) are local African volunteers who live in villages of their own ethnic group for 3 years. Participants are thus empowered by their peers. Tostan facilitates this process of deliberation and consensus around this and other important issues in the communities.
    Jennifer Wilen:
    Just to play devil's advocate....I wonder how many of the villages who have publically abandoned FGM/C have ACTUALLY abandoned the practice? Do you have any sense of this?
    Molly Melching:
    Jennifer I am sure many people are asking this same question. Recently an external evaluation implemented by Macro Int (the organization that actually does the DHS studies in African countries) indicated that over 75% of those who abandoned through public declaration 10 years ago in Senegal really did abandon. This has made us very confident in promoting the strategies that we have developed in partnership with communities in Senegal and other African countries.

    UNICEF has played a major role in supporting this movement over the past 10 years.
    Ghislaine Ouedraogo:
    Molly,

    I applaud your work at the community level. It truly is grassroots development, at its purest state.

    How would you propose men be added to the fight against FGM in Islamic and non-Islamic societies alike?

    Ghislaine Ouedraogo
    NYC
    Molly Melching:
    Ghislaine thanks for your support! Men play a very important role in the abandonment process and we include them in almost all activities of the program. Tostan made a mistake years ago by focusing only on women's rights and this alienated many men. In 2000, we rewrote our modules to discuss PEOPLE'S RIGHTS - those of women, men and children. The response was amazing. The men were so much more supportive when they realized they had human rights and responsibilities and they became much more involved in the movement for human dignity for ALL. Village religious and traditional leaders are now some of the most active in the promotion of human rights and health for women in the countries where we work.
    Nina Smart:
    Have You considered working with grassroots organizations in Sierra Leone where majority of women undergo FGM as part of initiation into the female secret society? What approach to eradication may seem effective?
    Molly Melching:
    Nina, The case of Sierra Leone is very special. However, we think that our respectful and holistic approach would work there because it doesn't set out to target just this practice. Several NGOs from Sierra Leone came on a study trip to Tostan last year and spent a week learning about the program and discussing with participants who had abandoned the practice. They were quite enthusiastic.

    We have implemented the Tostan program in the Forest Region of Guinea with similar ethnic groups as Sierra Leone and they are already planning their first declaration for the abandonment of FGC this year. It would be great if you could witness this declaration as I'm sure it would give you many ideas!
    Susan Tordella-Williams:
    Molly- congratulations again on the Tostan team receiving the coveted Hilton Prize. How has that changed your work and visibility in the NGO world?
    Molly Melching:
    Winning the Conrad N Hilton Humanitarian Prize was an immeasurably significant moment for Tostan. It put us onto the international stage in a major way but more importantly recognized the work of thousands of community members, local facilitators, and our staff over the past two decades.

    Our work has remained the same--to help communities lead their own development, but the Prize fund, the visibility and respect that came with it have allowed our expansion to happen much more swiftly.
    Andrea Parra:
    The practice of FGM was documented within a Colombian indigenous community, the Embera Chami, is there any work been done to link the experience of activists in Africa on this issue and the ones in Latin America?
    Molly Melching:
    Thank you for your question, very interesting to hear that. Yes, we believe that communities around the world can always benefit from exchange and dialog with others. It is important to understand that often, a default response to hearing about another ethnic group or country that has changed their behavior is to simply say "well, things are different there--it wouldn't work here." But we have seen that when people are given the chance to visit and have one-on-one discussions with others who have made brave, difficult choices, it really can make a difference. Not only are these encounters inspiring, but they also help to redefine what is possible. Once you have met people that gave up this practice on their own terms and while maintaining their culture and dignity, it is much harder to argue that this would be impossible. The demonstration effect is huge, whether from neighbor to neighbor, or from Africa to Colombia.
    Susan Tordella-Williams:
    Is Tostan's training center being used regularly? How many countries have sent trainers to be trained in the Tostan method?
    Molly Melching:
    Tostan's training center is busy most of the time. We train trainers, facilitators, local elected officials, and participants from all over Senegal, but have also received trainers from Mauritania, The Gambia, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea Bissau and Guinea.

    Jennifer Wilen:
    How do you feel about penalizing cutters who violate laws e.g. the women in Burkina Faso who were imprisoned last year? Is this an effective method of prevention?
    Molly Melching:
    In many ways, these sorts of questions can only be answered case by case--i.e. did the cutter know fully about the law? Was she pressured by the family? What other circumstances were involved? Has the law been applied fairly and consistently? This is why it is crucial to have fair and balanced judiciary systems that can apply the laws of the state in a consistent manner but taking each set of circumstances into account.

    As I noted in my responses to other questions, I do not feel that legal enforcement of laws against FGC are the best way to address this issue, at least not as a first point of entry. After communities have been informed, and after many have declared abandonment, then perhaps is the time to enforce the law. But as I mentioned elsewhere, it is almost impossible to enforce a law on FGC when prevalence in practicing groups normally hovers around 80-90%.

    A side note: it is important not to let the national data confuse the issue. In Senegal, for example, you will see a prevalence of 28% in the last DHS. However, that does not mean that this percentage is evenly distributed. In fact, it is the opposite. In many areas, it is nearly zero, while in others it is above 90%. Enforcement in the 5% areas is feasible; in the 90% areas impossible.
    Nina Smart:
    How do international organizations deal with religious and traditional leaders who have direct influence in the lives of the people who perpetuate the practice? What are the best approaches You found to be effective?
    Molly Melching:
    International organizations can identify local religious leaders who have been active in movements to support FGC abandonment and facilitate their travel to other regions and countries to discuss with people who share the same belief.

    Tostan sent several religious leaders to Egypt to discuss fgc with highly respected religious authorities and they came back empowered by the conversations and debates held.

    Nina Smart:
    How do You assess the role of law-makers, parliamentarians, in the process of FGM eradication? How does the position taken by the state influence the actions of groups where FGM is practiced? My interest is in Sierra Leone
    Molly Melching:
    Law-makers and parliamentarians are critical, but not key, to the process of FGC abandonment. It often depends on whether or not they themselves come from practicing groups or not. If not, their efforts will be seen as culturally motivated. If they are from a practicing community and want to abandon, this could be influential--however it would depend on their tone. If their message was one accusing communities of being "barbaric" or "primitive" or "ignorant", and seeking to "eradicate" or "fight" them, then those messages would likely not be received well at the local level. However if that person was committed to positive change and continued to express their opinions while also showing respect in other ways, he or she may find success.

    It should be said Sierra Leone is a special case because this practice is associated with secret societies. But the general principles I have outlined in my other responses would likely still apply.
    ]]>
    Molly Melching Wed, 04 Feb 2009 17:00:00 +0100
    Birth Defects: A Hidden Toll for Developing Countries http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3116/
    Donna Villareal:
    Can birth defects such as spina bifida be diagnosed and cured in utero? If so, what risks are incurred by the mother and/or child?
    Arnold Christianson:
    Let me start by defining birth defects.
    A birth defect is a structural or function abnormality that is present from birth.

    The causes of birth defects are divided into;
    i. Genetic or preconception causes- chromosome abnormalities (numerical or structural), single gene defects and multifactorial congenital malformations.
    ii. Fetal environmental or post conception causes. These include teratogens and constraint)
    iii. Presently unknown causes

    Some birth defects are diagnosable at birth or shortly thereafter, e.g. spina bifida, Down syndrome and cyanotic congenital heart defects. Other birth defects present later in life. Examples include cystic fibrosis, haemophilia, Huntingdon disease, and some congenital heart defects.

    With prenatal screening & diagnosis, which should be undertaken after appropriate counselling, certain birth defects are diagnosable in utero. Common examples include major structural abnormalities, Down syndrome and neural tube defects (spina bifida, anencephaly and encephalocoeles). There are many others.

    The risks to the fetus of the prenatal diagnostic proceedures (amniocentesis, cordocentesis and chorionic villus biopsy) are operator dependent but usually small.

    If a birth defect is diagnosed in utero there are very limited examples of fetal treatment and cure. In specialised units some fetal surgery has been successful for congenital malformations like diaphragmatic hernia. In the case of a mother diagnosed syphilis positive in pregnancy she can be treated with penicillin and this will cross the placenta and also treat the fetus if it is infected. Fetal blood transfusions have been successful in treating anaemia in fetuses affected by blood, particularily rhesus, incompatibility.

    However, for most birth defects diagnosed in utero the parents should be offered genetic counselling to fully inform them what the problem is, its cause if known, and what therapeutic options are available to them. These are most often limited to continuing the pregnacy or the offer of selective termination of pregnancy, if warranted and legally available in the country. Counselling should also inform the parents of the risk of recurrence of the problem and how this can be reduced or avoided in future pregnancies.


    Sherry Meyer:
    What are the teratogenic impacts of Paternal and/or Maternal alcohol use?
    How do we best inform potential parents about these effects?
    Arnold Christianson:
    The maternal effects of alcohol abuse are well described. Fetal alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD). The worst component of this spectrum is fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). Affected individuals have growth retardation, including microcephaly, intellectual disability usually in the mild mental retardation range, behaviour problems which can be severe, and a recognisable pattern of dysmorphic, particularly facial, features.

    Todate no physical affects of paternal alcohol abuse have been described, but this is asubject of research. However, maternal alcohol abuse is associated with paternal alcohol abuse.

    How best to inform 'potential' parents of these effects. Firstly, the ideal is to inform 'potential' parents in an effort to ensure the parents stop drinking before conception, thus ensuring the problem does not occur. How to do this? Much work is ongoing in this field and the approach needed is probably country, regionally, culturally and individually specific. Certainly a broad based approach starting with community education from school age and through is needed, combined with an individual approach with counselling during opportunities such as family planning/pregnancy prevention and periconception care consultations.
    jayashri desai:
    why [are] cases of autism on the rise in a developing country like India? What is their exact percentage? is it a lifestyle disease?
    Arnold Christianson:
    I am not an expert on autism or autism spectrum disorder (ASD). My understanding of the aetiology is that most cases have a strong genetic basis and are considered as a complex multifactial disorder. However, X-linked forms of the disorder are described (OMIM). Autism has also rarely been described in some children affected by teratogens (e.g. in Fetal valproate syndrome)

    An increasing prevalence of autism over time has been described in industrialised countries as well. A recent review noted that the prevalence of ASD in the 1950s was 4/10 000 and this has risen to
    40-60/10 000 now. No absolute reason for this has been given but consideration is given to the probability that increase public and professional awareness and better diagnostic capability has played a significant role in this increase. I must presume similar factors are at work in India.
    Irene Nabusoba:
    What should a mother look out for in her child immediately after childbirth? Many just ask for sex, weight and who the baby resembles only to be discharged and discover that a baby has a defect.
    besides, what are the common defects, causes, any preventive measures?
    what should nationasl health systems do to address this issue?
    Arnold Christianson:
    You raise an interesting issue.

    In my country, South Africa, as I suspect is the case throughout much of the developing world, most newborns are dischared from hospital or clinic within 24 hours of birth, because of pressure on maternity beds. And they are not assessed before discharge by a trained competent professional (primary care doctor or nursing sister/midwife). That is why only 16% of infants with Down syndrome are diagnosed during their newborn hospital or clinic stay in South Africa.

    So infants with potentially diagnosable birth defects are sent home only to become ill or have the problem recognised by the mother. Some of these will be fortunate and get back to a clinic or hospital for care. But in the often impoverished and difficult circumstances present in developing nations one can only wonder how many die before this is possible.

    I believe that every newborn born in a clinic or hospital, or brought to one after birth, is entitled to an assessment (basic history and examination) by a trained professional (primary care doctor or nursing sister/midwife) before discharge. This should be an intrinsic part of newborn care.

    Because many birth defects have externally obvious signs (dysmorphic features) it is possible to train nursing sisters/midwifes to examine newborns externally. Doctors should obtain this expertise in their medical training, but can be trained after graduation with their nursing colleagues as we are doing in SA.

    What should mothers look for. Once mothers have recovered from their delivery they begin their own thorough examination of their infants. If they express an concern, this should be taken seriously by medical staff. Unfortunately in the pressurised work environment of these professionals, this is not always the case.

    The matter of what national health systems need to do to address these issues requires a book to answer. May I refer you to the March of Dimes Birth Defects Report which you can obtain from www.marchofdimes.com/globalprograms . This covers all your other queries in a simple, easily readable manner.
    Dr Maulik Baxi:
    Dear Dr Christianson,

    What would be the approximate burden of congenital heart diseases in developing countries? How many of these cases do get the surgery/intervention they require? Has there been any effort on part of any major international organization or donor agency to investigate and mitigate this?

    Thank you very much.
    Arnold Christianson:
    Congenital heart defects (CHD) are numerically the commonest birth defect globally. There are just over a million children born annually with a CHD. Approximately 960 000 of these children are born in middle- and low-income countries. If you wish to see the numerical estimates by country please access the Modell Birth Defects Database in the March of Dimes Global Birth Defects Report ( www.marchofdimes.com/globalprograms )

    In middle- and low-income nations I would suspect that the majority of these children do not get the medical care they need, especially the specialised surgical interventions. The WHO's Global Burden of Disease Programme 2005 is currently investigating the epidemiology of CHD including outcomes. Hopefully recommendations will derive from this.
    A Thompson:
    I recently heard a news story of a 76-year old woman giving birth to a healthy first child. Due to the increasing avialability of new technology and much improved nutrition information, does the age of the mother at first pregnancy still determine the risks for birth defects? Or is this no longer relevant? Thanks.
    Arnold Christianson:
    I am not aware of the case of this 76 year old woman.

    The age of the mother in any pregnancy is an issue. The risk of conceiving a fetus with a chromosomal trisomy, particularily Down syndrome (DS), increases with maternal age.

    There are many tables available that give the risk for a child with DS and all chromosome risk at specific ages. The one immediately available to me gives the following

    Lowest risks
    Age 20- DS 1:1734 All chromosomal risk 1:526

    Highest risks:
    Age 49 DS 1:11 All chromosomal risk 1:8

    So maternal age remains relevant
    Dr FN Chukwuneke:
    Please I would like to know the effect of exposure to noise polution and the risk of developing birth defect especially oro-facial cleft.
    Arnold Christianson:
    I am aware of no connection between noise pollution and the development of birth defects.
    J Kishore:
    Till now focus is on communicable diseases and recently non-communicable diseases are picked up in developing countries. However, majority of deaths are in [the] first week of life which are mainly genetic in origin. Another issue is repeated abortions which are again neglected. Quality of health can not improve if we do not give comprehensive health to the individual and community where conception and birth are equaly important. Myths are present not only in general public but also in health professionals that birth defects are non-preventable. They need to be removed through proper training and awareness programs.
    Arnold Christianson:
    The process of the elimination of communicable disorders and the rise in public health significance of non-communicable disorders is known as epidemiological or health transition. It occured in industrialised countries in the first 60 years of the 20th century. It is currently happening in middle-and low-income nations, obviously at rates that vary according to the rate of improvement of their socioecoomic, educational and healthcare development. In those countries with wars, civil strife and poor governance there is negative health transition. (see March of Dimes Global Birth Defect Report at www.marchofdimes.com/global programs )

    The WHO estimates about 34% of under 5 deaths in children occur in the neonatal period. What the WHO labels congenital anomalies (this does not include all birth defects) is the fourth highest cause of neonatal death (8%) after preterm delivery, asphyxia and sepsis or pneumonia.

    I agree with you that health cannot improve if we do not give a comprehensive service that includes services for the care and prevention of birth defects. This includes preconception care to try and ensure the conception of a normal embryo and is ongoing health during the early embryonic period (1st eight weeks) until antenatal care takes over for the rest of pregnancy. Post delivery neonatal and childhood care is required.

    And it is still true that the public, health care professionals and policy developers still hang on to the myths that birth defects are rare, costly to care for and prevent.

    There is now ample documentation to refute these myths and how care and prevention for birth defects can be offered in middle- and low-income nations (WHO Human genetic Programme literature, the March of Dimes Global Birth Defects Report and the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries chapter that stimulated this online discussion.
    Solomon Van Kanei:
    Which cost effective mechanisms can be put in place in recourse poor countries to identify such problems and how can programmes be designed to prevent them?
    Arnold Christianson:
    This would take a long and involved discussion. May I refer you to the WHO's Human Genetic Programmes literature on the topic (www.who.int), the Disease Controll Priorities article on the topic (www.dcp2.org/file/230/dcpp-twpcongenitaldefects_web.pdf ) and the March of Dimes Global Birth Defects Report (www.marchofdimes.com/globalprograms . Should you wish to discuss any issues with me after that I can be contacted at arnold.christianson@nhls.ac.za
    Amy Rogers:
    Do genetic factors play a role in causing birth defects or is it mainly due to things such as poor nutrition or bad choices on the mother's part?
    Arnold Christianson:
    Birth defects have the following causes:
    1. Genetic or preconception
    a. Abnormalities of structure of numer of chromosomes
    b. Mutations in a single gene- single gene defects
    c. Multifactorial disorders. These are due to the interaction of genes and fetal environmental factors. They are called congenital malformations

    2. Fetal environmental or post conception factors factors.
    In these the genes and chromosomes are normal.

    a. Teratogens. Pysical or chemical agents that go through the mother and damage the embryo or fetus.
    Include i) Maternal infections like rubella (german measles) and syphilis)
    ii) Altered maternal metabolic states or illness (maternal iodine deficiency, maternal insulin dependent diabetes mellitus)
    iii) High doses of radiation
    iv) Environmental toxins (toluene, methyl mercury)
    v) Drugs (therapeutic drugs like warfarin, tetracycline, retinoic acid, valproic acid, phenytoin misoprostil and many more. Also recreational drugs, especially alcohol.

    Florence Mutesi:
    Are some of the causes of birth defects in undeveloped countries uncontrolable, for example those caused by civil wars like: lack medical check up, lack of nutritious food?

    Which birth effects are as a result of family planning methods?

    Who are the key players in ensuring the decline in birth defect?

    What are the main causes of birth defects originating from mothers?
    Arnold Christianson:
    Please look at the answer to Amy Rogers question for the causes of birth defects.

    Programs for the control of birth defects are well documented in thw WHO's Human Genetic Programme literature (www.who.int), the March of Dimes Global Report on Birth Defects (www.marchofdimes.com/global programs) and in the book chapter that stimilated this discussion in Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (www.dcp2.org)

    Control of birth defects is a programme combining best possible care and prevention by means of community education, preconception care, genetic counselling, medical genetic screening, prenatal diagnosis and associated services (i.e. selective termination of pregnancy)if available and legal in a country.

    All children with a birth defect are entitled to the best possible care (diagnosis, treatment and genetic counselling) available in the prevailing circumstances. Early death is a reality for many of these infants in developing nations, so treatment may only comprise palliative care. But they are entitled to that.

    Prevention programmes are an issue for each country to assess their needs and resources and then put in the programme(s) they choose. With time more programmes can be added as necessary.

    I am not aware of a birth defect caused by family planning (contraception) methods. However, when misoprostil is used as an abortificant (often illegally) this can cause birth defects.

    The key players in the care and prevention of birth defects and their roles are discussed in the literature I gave above.
    Adeline Azrack:
    As with the November discussion about stillbirths, the issue of birth defects should draw our attention back the nutrition status of mothers, particularly young mothers. I would appreciate your comments on this subject, particularly practical examples of how to integrate maternal nutrition interventions into antenatal care in developing countries.
    Arnold Christianson:
    Maternal nutrition interventions into antenatal care are TOO late to prevent most birth defects. The majority of serious birth defects are already present by 36 days post conception- before the mother even knows she is pregnant. Nutritional intervention needs to be preconception- that is part of preconcetion care which should be undertaken under the auspices of Women's Health.

    All women should obviously eat a healthy diet (macro and miro nutrients) if possible. Note that obesity has been associated with some birth defects.

    Specific nutrition interventions should include.

    1. Folic acid. Fortification of staple foods in developing countries, including my own S Africa, has resulted in a significant reduction in the birth prevalence of neural tube defects. Folic acid, 400mcg daily, can also be supplemented as part of a peri-conception (for at least 1 month before conception and 3 months after) vitamin regime. There is no harm in supplementing folic acid at this dose if food is also fortified in the country.

    Salt fortification with iodine has made a huge impact on the birth prevalence of iodine deficiency disorder in infants over the last 18 years. This has been a very successful UNICEF programme, but there are still countries and regions that need to come on board.

    Good nutrition also involves removing harmful substances from the diet. The most important substance is ALCOHOL.

    Having done this to ensure preconception and immediate post conception nutrition, the continuation of a good diet and appropriate nutritional supplementation into antenatal care is obviously important.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    Birth defects have hidden costs which do not express themselves immediately. How should developing countries, which already face severe resource constraints, face this situation?
    Arnold Christianson:
    Let me start this discussion with my belief that 'care is an absolute and prevention the ideal'.

    Undoubtedly the care (diagnosis, treatment and counselling) of children with birth defects can be expensive and therefore where possible prevention is very important to reduce that cost. Preconception (primary) prevention is best as it is often the least expensive and has the least social/legal/ethical consequences. However, secondary prevention also has a role to play.

    Having said that, in all situations a child born with a birth defect is entitled to the best possible care in the prevailing circumstances.

    The issue of how developing countries can approach the matter of developing and integrating medical genetic services into their health care is well covered in
    the WHO's Human Genetic Programme literature (www.who.int), the March of Dimes Global Report on Birth Defects (www.marchofdimes.com/global programs) and in the book chapter that stimilated this discussion in Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (www.dcp2.org)

    The initiation and development of medical genetic servics in resource limited countries is not an all or nothing issue. Each country must assess the problems it has and the resources available to manage these. Some countries start with just 1 disorder- the most significant- develop a care and prevention program and then use the experience gained in developing further programmes. Iran is currently developing an excellent medical genetic service on this basis. Others like my own, South Africa, are initiation a more generalised service and trying to build it up.

    Low resource countries need to take a different approach to that in industrialised nations. They need to have their services strongly based and integrated into primary health care. Thes in turn then need to be linked to secondary and tertiary care.
    Pushpanjali Swain:
    Birth defect of a child which leads to disability is a lifelong tension of the parents. Birth defect can be mild also. Can severe birth defects prevented in womb? Is the prevalence of birth defect higher in developing country? Does Malnutrition of mother have any contribution to birth defect of child?
    Arnold Christianson:
    The birth prevalence of birth defects in middle- and low-income countries is on average 20% higher than in industrialised nations.

    Maternal malnutrition is certainly one reason for this, particularly maternal iodine deficiency. Maternal folic acid deficiency may also be a factor.

    Malnutrition also includes eating or drinking harmful substances. Fetal alcohol syndrome is a significant birth defect in developing countries where alcohol is available and used/abused by women. South Africa is one such country, but there are many more in which the problem has not been recognised.

    Severe birth defects cannot be prevented in the womb. They can be diagnosed during pregnancy.
    Agatha Onovo:
    What about the impact of this on women. I know the whole family is affected but the mothers are the most affected. While discusing causes, prevention and management of birth defects, it is important to draw the worlds attention to the impact of defects on the mothers of the affected children. Apart from the shame, stigma, psychological, physical and financial impact, these women are treated like social outcasts. In most traditional African societ[ies]; if the child is the woman's first child, the mother is termed evil and most often will be abandoned with the burden of caring for the child alone. If the child is not her first, she is acussed of infidelity and it is believed she is being punished by the Gods. I am of the opinion that though birth defects may be of genetic and other origin, sociologigical approach could be part of the solution to the problem.
    Arnold Christianson:
    The 2 people most affected by the birth of a child with a birth defect are the affected child, obviously, and the mother. The mother bears a heavy burden for several reasons. Firstly she experiences the grief of giving birth to her child with the birth defect and thus the loss of her expectation of a normal child. She then has the major role in the care of the child. Then, in most societies, especially traditional societies in developing countries, she is frequently stigmatised and blamed for causing the problem.

    The solution. Knowledge- both community and individual- about the causes and available care and methods of prevention of birth defects. That takes time,effort and commitment from the medical profession, health and educational authorities, media etc

    Evelyn Lirri:
    1-What are the comon birth defects?
    2-What is required to prevent them?
    3-How can parents/health workers identify these defects?
    4-How Big is the problem in a developing country like Uganda?
    Arnold Christianson:
    1.It is estimated that some 9 million children (~7%) are born annually with a serious birth defect. About 7.9 million of these have a genetic cause and the rest are due to fetal environmental problems, mainly teratogens.

    Please remember not all people with a birth defcts are diagnosed at birth. Most (~75%) present later in life.

    Globally the 5 commonest genetic birth defects born annually are congenital heart disease (~1040000), neural tube defects (~324000) the haemoglobin disorders sickle cell disorder and thalassaemia (~3080000), Down syndrome (~217000) & G6PD deficiency (~177000). They comprise about 25% of the annual number of infants born with a serious genetic birth defect.

    Common teratogenic birth defects, for which accurate global information is not available are congenital syphilis, congenital rubella (~100000/year), iodine deficiency disorder and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.



    2&3. Medical genetic services that encompass both care & prevention. Please refer to the following literature:
    the WHO's Human Genetic Programmes literature on the topic (www.who.int), the Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries' chapter on Controlling Birth Defects(www.dcp2.org/file/230/dcpp-twpcongenitaldefects_web.pdf ) and the March of Dimes Global Birth Defects Report (www.marchofdimes.com/globalprograms) .

    4. The birth prevalence of serious genetic birth defects in Uganda is estimated to be ~61/1000 live births. This will be about 85-90% 0f all the birth defects. Common individual genetic birth defects include congenital heart defects, sickle cell disorder, Down syndrome and neural tube defects.



    James Scott:
    Are there any published or current studies showing correlation between the presence of specific toxins and pollutants and the occurrence of specific birth defects? Also, have scholars isolated which birth defects are naturally occurring in non-mutated human DNA?
    Arnold Christianson:
    Please go to the answers to the questions posed by Amy Rogers and Donna Villareal for the causes of birth defects.

    Toxins that cause birth defects are teratogens:
    1. Drugs- Therapeutic
    i. Anti-acne. Retinoic acid
    ii. Anti- ulcer (gastric. Misoprostil
    iii. Antibiotics. Tetracyclines, Streptomycin,Thalidomide
    iv. Anticoagulants. Warfarin
    v. Anti cancer. All of them
    vi. Antidepressants. Lithium
    vii. Anti-epileptic. Phenytoin, Sodium valproate
    viii.Antihypertensive. ACE inhibitors

    2. Drugs- Recreational
    Alcohol
    Cocaine
    Methamphetamine
    Smoking

    3 Environmental toxins
    Methyl mercury
    Toluene

    There is a lot of published work on this

    The birth defects in 'non-mutated'individuals are all those caused by conditions other than single gene defects
    Chinyere Fred-Adegbulugbe:
    What can mothers do to protect their unborn children from most or even all birth defects? And what [kind] of support system is available for a mother/parents who gave birth to such a child?
    Arnold Christianson:
    Mothers first need to consider protecting their unconceived child. They must do all they can to ensure they conceive a normal child.Steps to follow:

    Plan the pregnancy.
    Before conception ensure they and their spouse are both physically and emotionall prepared for the pregnancy
    To do this they should receive preconception care during which a family history will be taken to assess their risk for having a child with a birth defect from a genetic cause.If present they will be offered advice on how to reduce this risk. E.g. carrier screening for sickle cell anaemia or cystic fibrosis. Women over 35 years old should be counselled about their increased risk for a child with Down syndrome
    The woman's syphilis, HIV and rubella status can be checked. Syphilis can be treated. If sero-negative the woman can receive rubella immunisation. If HIV positive she can be counselled on the consequences of this for a future pregnancy and receive RX if necessary.
    Should she have an illness (e.g diabetes, epilepsy) she can have her medication checked and if necessary adjusted to ensure she has the optimal and least teratogenic therapeutic options.
    She can be counselled on optimal diet including not to use recreational drugs like alcohol and smoking throughout pregnancy.
    Peri-conception folic acid supplementation should be offered.

    Once the babe is conceived she should continue to have a good diet, including Fe and vitamin supplements and regularily attend antenatal care.

    The support systems available for children with a birth defect vary widely from country to country and even with a country. No matter what all children with a birth defect are entitled to the best possible available care. Care for children with birth defects is discussed in the MOD Global Birth Defects Report (www.marchofdimes.com/globalprograms)
    ]]>
    Arnold Christianson Thu, 22 Jan 2009 18:00:00 +0100
    Is Sub-Saharan Africa an Exception to the Global Trend Toward Smaller Families? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/3027/
    Kofi Awusabo-Asare:
    I am hoping there will be historical dimension to the discussion! What were the state of the economy, political system and support that the countries that SSA countries are being compared with at the time of the onset of fertility decline? For instance, to achieve their current fertility level, China had to adopt the one child per family policy. At the time China implemented her policy, although it was accused of human rights abuses, the concern for human rights was not as strong as it is today.

    The second dimension is that SSA is being dumped together as a unitary state. This is not the case and that there will be the need to consider area or country-specific issues
    Steven Sinding:
    Very pertinent points.
    First, fertility decline is underway in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The declines, where they are occurring or have occurred, began later than most other developing regions and countries, but the pattern of decline is similar in that it begins in the largest cities and only gradually moves out, first to secondary cities and towns and then to the rural areas. In much of SSA, rural fertility decline has yet to begin.
    Second, fertility decline began earlier and is further advanced in Anglophone countries than in Francophone or Lusophone countries. This difference is more attributable to when the countries adopted population policies and family planning programs than to any other factor.
    Given that by most measures, SSA scores lower on most pertinent human development indicators than other regions, it is not surprising that fertility decline began later and is less advanced in Africa than elsewhere. Fertility is highly related to such measures as infant/child mortality; literacy and school enrollment rates, especially for girls; female employment outside the home; and urbanization. On all such measures, SSA lags behind other regions and one must assume that the pace of fertility decline will be strongly determined by how well SSA governments do in raising living standards, particularly with respect to health, education and gender.
    Finally, it should be noted that desired fertility (i.e., the number of children women say they would like by the time they complete childbearing)is still relatively high in much of SSA. Desired fertility is strongly influenced by the socioeconomic factors just listed above. However, there is quite a high level of "unmet need for contraception," measured by the proportion of women who say they want to limit or space future births but are not using contraception. If all the unmet need were satisfied, fertility would decline in most countries by between 15 and 30 percent. In other words, alongside efforts to raise living standards in general so as to reduce desired fertility, there is also a need for family planning programs to help women and couples realize their present fertility goals.
    tembinkosi:
    isnt it that african countries are now pursuing population policies similar to the North that encourage the use of contraceptives,monogamy etc...?
    Steven Sinding:
    Some are, others are not. Generally the Francophone countries are lagging behind the Anglophone in adopting population policies and reproductive health programs. Serious efforts to provide family planning services have only been mounted in a handful of countries and where they have been provided, fertility has declined. The most well known success stories are in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Kenya -- and quite recently in Rwanda. In the first four, much of the fertility decline that followed the development of strong programs occurred in the 1980s and '90s. Since 2000, there has been a real leveling off in Botswana, Kenya and Zimbabwe, mostly because priorities changed and much of the effort that had been directed at high fertility was redicrected to AIDS prevention and treatment -- especially treatment. In fact, family planning effort has declined seriously in several countries as population and family planning has declined as a development priority -- in part because it was not included in the initial version of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
    kashif Mahmood:
    "No law and policy which is against nature of human beings can be implemented and human behaviour is unpridicable."
    In the light of above-mentioned reality how can we predict decline family size in sub-saharan Africa? and what meausres will be taken to modify thinking of people?
    Steven Sinding:
    There is no reason of which I am aware to assume that Africans have a different nature than people living in every other region of the world. Fertility behavior in, in fact, highly predictable and responds to the conditions in which people find themselves. As living standards improve, as employment and residence shift from rural to urban, as incomes rise, as school fees and other costs of children increase, generally people throughout the globe, including in Africa, decide to have fewer children. Also, as the case of Kenya in the 1980s shows, when political leaders decide that fertility is too high and ought to come down, and when they repeat this message over and over again, people do begin to think about whether or not they can and should have fewer children and many decide to do so. As the famous Australian demographer John (Jack) Caldwell has said, much of dramatic decline in fertility that we have witnessed in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America over the past 40 years was the result of changing family size norms -- norms that changed in part as the result of communications programs that were deisgned to change them. Another famous demographer, Ronald Freedman, an American, called this "ideational change" and said that it had a powerful independent effect, above and beyond what "development" itself brought about, on fertility behavior.
    Jason Bremner:
    Can you discuss urban/rural differentials in fertility in Sub-saharan Africa, and whether urbanization trends are likely to have any impact on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    Steven Sinding:
    I have addressed this issue in answwers to the previous questions I answered. In short, urban-rural differentials are very marked in Africa and as the continent continues to rapidly urbanize, I anticipate urbaization will continue to have a powerful impact on fertility. A look at the differential fertility between populations living in urban slums and the rural communities from which they migrated underscores this point quite dramatically. For an excellent treatment of this issues, see Demographic and Health Surveys Comparative Reports, # 18, "Fertility changes in sub-Saharan Africa," MEASURE/DHS. September 2008.
    tembinkosi:
    How significant is the claim that HIV/AIDS has seriously affected population growth of Africa?l think the issue has been exaggerated.
    Steven Sinding:
    Despite the substantial mortality from AIDS, UN projections for all developing regions, including Africa, predict large further population increases. This is because the annual number of AIDS deaths (2 million) is equivalent to just 10 days growth in the population of the developing world. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 1 billion between 2005 and 2050 (from 0.77 to 1.76 billion). In fact, no African country is expected to see a decline in its population size between 2005 and 2050 due to high AIDS mortality. Even with the steady future declines in fertility assumed by the UN, most populations in sub-Saharan Africa will more than double in size, several will triple and Niger is projected to quadruple by 2050.
    Hussein Hassan:
    In some religions, specially Islam which is religion of many Sub-Saharan africans, does not discourage people to have many children. So what is the role of religion in Africa to have many children?
    Steven Sinding:
    Religion, or the attitude of religious leaders, sometimes reinforces traditional conservative attitudes. It is important to distinguish this aspect of religion from formal doctrine. In fact, only Roman Catholic doctrine specifically opposes some modern forms of contraception. Nearly all other religions are silent on the matter. Islam, as a matter of fact, preaches that a household head should have no more children than he can properly care for and support. And many Islamic countries have been in the vanguard of population policies and family planning programs. I would mention Indonesia (the world's largest Muslim country), Iran, Morocco, Tunisia and Bangladesh as just five among several very prominent examples. In other words, religious leaders can sometimes reinforce attitudes and values that are not part of their religion's formal doctrine. And, as the cases of Indonesia and Iran show, religious leaders can also be very influential in the encouragement of family planning if they choose to do so.
    Kazuyo Machiyama:
    What do you think are potential causes of the recent stagnation of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa? (But I believe some of the claimed fertility stalls are spurious.)
    Steven Sinding:
    I don't think they are spurious and I think the cause is very clear: the redirecting of resources away from family planning and toward other (usually health-related) programs, most especially HIV/AIDS. The data are very clear that expenditures on family planning have declined dramatically (by at least 30 percent between 1995 and 2005)while expenditures on HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria have increased dramatically (by 300 percent over the same period of time). As M. Michel Garenne says in DHS/MEASURE Comparative Studies Report # 18 on Fertiliy change in sub-Saharan Africa, "The speed of the fertility decline, approximately 1 child per decade, also varied markedly among countries, from 1.5 children per decade to less than 0.5 children per decade. In addition, a stall in fertility decline occurred in six of the countries investigated (Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar [urban areas], Nigeria, Rwanda-rural, Tanzania [rural areas]); in five of these countries, this stall occurred in 1995-2005."
    J Kishore:
    Literacy status of the women, development [level}, particularly standard of living, are linked with decline of fertility. Africa is not doing well due to many reasons in female literacy and standard of living so [not] able to decrease fertility. Progress is slow as compared to other continents. The developed world has to focus on its proper development to bring it in main stream.
    Steven Sinding:
    As my answers to several of the preceding questions demonstrates, I agree with this statement.
    Douwe Verkuyl:
    Where there was a good health service, fertility declined: RSA, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe. [In] Other countries, the personal service and dedication is missing (tanzania 1 doctor to 50.000 people).
    The last frontier (apart from perhaps West Africa will disappear if services are provided. There is a window of opportunity for delivering FP if that is missed then the failed state scenario through overpopulation/poverty/ lack of work and education is getting more and more likely.
    King's Demografic Trap
    Don't you think?
    Steven Sinding:
    I think the provision of family planning within health services is extremely important. We have seen that wherever reasonably good health services are offered, if family planning is included it will be used and fertility will decline. Perhaps the most dramatic example is in the experimental program run by the Navrongo Health Research Centre in northern Ghana. There, in one of the most remote and disadvantaged parts of Africa, it was shown that community-based contraceptive services, which also emphasised mother and child health (i.e., good antenatal care, immunisations, etc.)lowered the fertility rate by between 15 and 20 percent, compared with no change in the areas without such services.
    Having said that, I think that family planning and community health care must be accompanied by other rural services that improve education, employment opportunities, rural incomes, and women's status. African fertility will only decline if, as nearly everywhere else in the world, it is addressed comprehensively, with an approach that focuses on raising living standards of poor families at the same time that it provides contraceptive services.
    Rei Ravenholt:
    Does anyone know of a county in a sub-Saharan country where oral contraceptives, condoms, and misoprostol tablets have been offered at every residence, repeatedly; and clinical services for tubal ligation and pregnacy termination are readily and freely available; and where there is an ongoing problem of inadequate use and no decline in the birth rate?

    If not, then let's get on with that necessary task.
    Steven Sinding:
    Thanks, Rei. Always great to hear from you.
    Debbie Fugate:
    Can you please discuss how to measure stalls in fertility decline?
    Secondly, although this is not an issue unique to Africa, are there aspects of the occurance of a fertility stall in African countries that are different?
    Steven Sinding:
    Fertility trends are usually monitored in developing countries through a series of surveys -- the Demographic and Health Surveys. Over a period of years, these surveys track fertility trends in many countries. For example, surveys beginning in 1978 and conducted roughly every five years since showed significant fertility declines in Kenya through the 1980s and the first half of the '90s, but then stalling and remaining essentially unchanged since the late 1990s. A recent DHS comparative study (#18 in a series) by M. Michel Garenne, shows contemporary fertility stalls in six African countries -- Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar (urban areas), Nigeria, Rwanda- (rural), and Tanzania (rural).

    I think the principal cause of the fertility stalls in these countries is a decline in the funding for family planning and associated reproductive health services. The experience in Asia showed that most countries maintained strong family planning programs over an extended period, enabling them to bring fertility down from high levels to levels much closer to replacement (slightly more than two children). There were very few stalls in decline until countries began to approach replacement because program support remained constant and strong. In recent years, support for family planning programs in Africa declined as donor funding for sexual and reproductive health has declined, leading to the fertility stalls. In Kenya, the case I know best and the one most closely studied, there seems little question that this is what has happened.
    Mwendalubi Maumbi:
    In Zambia, as is likely the case with other Sub-Saharan countries, some cultural norms actually have it that the more children a man has, the more powerful or respected he becomes. For those that may seem to be modern, they mostly have multiple concurrent sexual partners and so may have 3 children with the wife but are likely to have 1, 2 or 3 from other women outside marriage. Is it just my observation or are the poorest really with the most children? What could be the cause of this?
    Steven Sinding:
    You are quite right that traditional norms mean men prove their strength, masculinity and power through the number of children they father. That is why fertility tends to decline as women gain greater equality with men and are able to have more of a say in how many children they will bear. The education of girls, leading to increasing autonomy and empowerment, is for this reason the single most important determinant of desired fertility. Strong family planning programs then help women to realize their fertility desires.
    While the situation varies from country to country, generally fertility is highest in rural Africa where people generally are poorer than those who live in urban centers. Multiple partnerships, such as you describe, don't necessarily mean higher fertility since fertility is measured in terms of how many children on average a woman bears, as opposed to how many a man may father.
    Christopher Mwaijonga:
    Family planning being repositioned is one of stepping up efforts to save mothers' lives.
    Studies have shown a positive correlation between the family planning acceptance and use to levels of morbidity and mortality associated with pregnancy and childbirth,

    Maternal death and disability rates mirror the huge discrepancies that exist between the haves and the have-nots both within and between countries. We should all work for the survival of mothers, it is a human rights imperative. It also has enormous socio-economic ramifications – and is a crucial international development priority. Both the ICPD/POA and the MDGs call for a 75 per cent reduction in maternal mortality between 1990 and 2015.

    I hope part of the discussion on the 10th Dec will focus on this fact and how we can jointly help to accelerate implementation and realisation of that dream, that noble dream. We have to ensure that (i) All women have access to contraception to avoid unintended pregnancies, (ii) All pregnant women have access to skilled care at the time of birth, and (iii) All those with complications have timely access to quality emergency obstetric care

    And evidence shows that in all those countries being cited, significant declines in fertility and subsequently declines in maternal mortality occurred as more women and more women gained access to family planning and skilled birth attendance with backup emergency obstetric care.

    That said, it is almost not possible, for significant poverty reduction to take place side by side with high fertility. My last humble request, let us put a human face, a face of woman, to these numbers. When and does a man come into this discussion?
    Steven Sinding:
    Eloquently stated.
    John Bermingham:
    Hi, Steve! If possible, would you post a list of stalled fertility countries. Q1. To what extent are contraceptives and abortion readily available in these countries? Q2. Which works best at lowering fertility - free standing fly plg clinics or health facilities in which fly plg is but one of a great many but not very urgent health issues
    Steven Sinding:
    Hi John -- I answered the first question just a few minutes ago and you will see the response when my answers are posted.
    The second question is much harder to answer, and is not an either/or matter. But generally, I would say that the most effective facilities are not stand-alone family planning centers but neither are they ones that try to offer a full range of comprehensive health services. In other words, in Africa the most effective centers have tended to be those that offer a limited range of the most critical services from the standpoint of protecting women's and children's health. A "selective primary care approach," one that includes a range of services that trained para-professional staff can provide in difficult settings, would include family planning, tetanus toxoid, immunization against major childhood diseases, referrals for obstetrical complications, growth monitoring and nutrition education, and treatment for diarrheal diseases and acute respiratory infections. This was the package offered by the Navrongo project in rural northern Ghana, with dramatic effect on both maternal and child health outcomes, and fertility! I should add that both malaria (esp. bednets) and HIV prevention services (VCT and condoms) need to be included in the updated selective primary care package.
    jjooo:
    Does Africa need fertility decline?
    Steven Sinding:
    I believe that many countries, such as Niger where at present fertility the population will double in 15 years, would benefit greatly if fertility was lower. This does not mean that Africa needs fewer people. It does mean that strains on African governments would be less and the prospects for sustained economic development would be far better if the rate of population growth were slower. Most African countries, which have committed themselves to achieving the Millennium Development Goals, have practically no chance of meeting any of those goals at present fertility levels, whether one is talking about poverty reduction, reducing hunger, achieving universal primary school enrollments, reducing infant/young child mortality, reducing maternal mortality, reducing new HIV infection rates, or improving the environment.
    Paula Tavrow:
    To what extent do you think that the high fertility in Africa is attributed to a failure to appreciate and address sufficiently African men's power and role in fertility decision-making? Can you describe some effective models of African men's engagement in family planning?
    Steven Sinding:
    Men's roles are very important, in Africa and elsewhere. But I don't think the role of men in Africa is different today from what it was in Bangladesh in the 1980s or in Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. Empowering women to negotiate childbearing on equal terms with men is a key factor, and providing women with services that give them a certain degree of independent control over their fertility is equally important. During my time in Kenya, when fertility was falling very fast (1986-1990), I observed that men were especially responsive to the calls of political and other leaders to behave responsibly when it came to childbearing. Helping men to understand the relationship between family size and their aspirations for their children in terms of education and land inhertance played a major role in changing male attitudes, at the same time that family planning services helped women attain greater power in determining the number and spacing of their children.
    Barbara Cooper:
    Have policy makers adjusted their thinking in light of the reality that replacement fertility in much of Africa has to be higher than 2.1 given mortality among women of reproductive age?
    Steven Sinding:
    I doubt it. But if effective primary care programs of the kind I outlined in my response to John Bermingham's question were offered, I think mortality decline would occur at as fast or faster a rate than fertility decline.
    Jacques Emina:
    Could you discuss about the relationship between probable decline of fertility in SSA, very low ferility in Europe, risk of selective out-migration in SSA and the future of SSA development?
    Steven Sinding:
    I wish I could but this is a huge question. What I will say is that extremely low fertility in Europe will create an increasing demand for labor which Africans and many others will be ready to fulfill. At the same time, very high fertility in Africa creates a large pool of job seekers who cannot find employment at home. If fertility were lower in Africa, the pressure to migrate out would be correspondingly reduced, assuming job creation rates in Africa remain constant or, one could hope, increase. Of course, the most highly educated Africans are the ones most in demand in the low fertility countries, thus contributing to the brain drain that is such a tragedy for African countries. The answer to the brain drain in Africa is not lower fertility -- it is economic development and creation of good employment options in Africa. But economic development itself would be much easier to promote if population pressures were less, enabling governments to invest more in the quality of education and healthcare, thus creating the human capital that is a prerequisite to sustained economic growth.
    Ntsoaki Mapetla:
    Can we expect changes in desired fertility and in turn declines in fertility in SSA due to HIV/AIDS - in other words can we expect significant changes in reproductive choices?
    Steven Sinding:
    This is a very difficult question to answer. Fertility goals are generally thought to be influenced not by adult mortality but by under-five mortality. It is the probability that children will survive to adulthood that largely determines how many children a couple will want to bear. So, at the level of individual families, where fertility goals are usually set, I would not expect AIDS mortality to have a major impact. However, at the broader level of societies, one hears political leaders often expressing concern about "de-population" due to AIDS. Where political leaders, fearing the effects of AIDS mortality, withdraw resources from family planning programs, the effect on fertility could be strong, even though fertility desires of families might not change at all.
    Esther Nakkazi:
    Many sub-Saharan countries introduced free primary education in the past decade. In Uganda it has been in existence over the last ten years or so. But the issue of female literacy does not seem to match fertility rates why is that?

    Does the high infant mortality rates respond to high birth rates? If countries in sub-Saharan Africa lowered death at birth would it reduce population growths?

    What does diet have to do with high fertility? It is assumed that because of the diets that have not changed much in rural areas in Africa, the fertility rates have been maintained.

    One of the issues emerging now is that many HIV positive people are increasingly having many babies because of the prevention-of-mother-to-child programmes. Also that many HIV positive people on ART are getting side effects from these drugs which are increasing their sexual prowess. This is in turn affecting them to have many babies? What are your comments on this?
    Steven Sinding:
    I believe that female education is an extremely important factor but it may not be enough in a country whose leadership is hostile to family planning.
    High birthrates and high under 5 mortality are closely correlated. Bringing down one usually results in declines in the other. If one works on the two together the results are greatly magnified. It's a wonderful example of mutual reinforcement -- or a virtuous circle.
    Diet per se is not related to fertility but nutritional status is. Extremely poor and malnourished women have a harder time getting pregnant and carrying pregnancies to term than better nourished women. But what they eat does not affect fertility. Neither am I aware that ART has any impact on what demographers call fecundability -- the ability to conceive.
    It is true that PMTCT programs increase the likelihood that children will be born free of AIDS and more likely to survive. Surely that is a good thing! Keeping mortality high is never a good way to approach any population question!
    Namita Koppa:
    How has the food crisis affected migration and fertility? In Malawi, men move to secure work and have the ability to have families with other women. Has this trend been observed in other food insecure countries?
    Steven Sinding:
    I'm not close enough to the situation to know how the present food crisis is affecting either fertility or migration, nor have I read anything recently that comments on these issues. Certainly economic circumstances have a great deal to do with labor mobility throughout Africa and beyond, and men who leave their families behind often do produce children in the places where they are working. However, this does not necessarily affect fertility rates very much. Men working away from home are also prone to engage in risky sexual practices which can result in them infecting their wives with HIV when they return home -- an increasingly common and tragic phenomenon in many African countries.
    Namita Koppa:
    How have voluntary family planning programs been linked to other social and environmental outcomes in SSA? Recently, a number of development projects sponsored by USAID and WWF in the Philippines have linked reproductive health promotion with coastal management, using microfinance as a platform.
    Steven Sinding:
    Unfortunately, I do not think family planning programs have very often been linked to other social and economic outcomes in Africa, at least not in a programmatic sense. The argument to undertake family planning programs is often made (usually by outside donor agencies) by linking fertility decline to other social and economic goals. For example, today much of the advocacy on behalf of family planning links it to the achievement of the MDGs, with proponents asserting that unless high fertility rates are reduced, the prospects of achieving the MDGs are slim to none. But efforts such as those you describe in the Philippines are few and far between, in my experience. I think, in fact, that family planning programs have suffered to the extent that they are promoted as stand-alone interventions. The more one can associate the benefits of family planning with other aspects of people's lives, the more likely they are to adopt family planning. In Bangladesh, the Grameen Bank and BRAC showed that women involved in micro-enterprise programs were more likely to adopt family planning than women who were not. Likewise, health programs that offer family planning alongside safe motherhood and child survival interventions will be more acceptable than family planning standing alone.
    Marian Starkey:
    Hi Steve,
    I read recently that since 2005, Rwanda's contraceptive prevalence has increased from 10% to 27% and that (probably as a direct result) fertility has dropped from 6.1 to 5.5 in the same period. What are the factors behind the uptick in new contraceptive users and is this a trend that will likely continue in the most densely populated country in Africa?
    Steven Sinding:
    The Rwandan case is Africa's latest "success story." I don't know the story in detail but it's my understanding that it's quite similar to the Kenyan story a decade ago. Pres. Paul Kagame has become convinced that Rwanda's development depends heavily on bringing down the very high fertility rate, and consequently the population growth rate, in the country. He has made family planning a top priority and is committing the resources necessary to provide reproductive health services to the entire population. He speaks publicly and forcefully about responsible parenthood and encourages other officials to reverse taboos regarding contraception and traditional sexual practices. The public response to Pres. Kagame's policies has been swift and impressive, just as it was in Kenya when Pres. Moi and then V.P. Kibaki implored Kenyans to have fewer children and provided the resources to enable them to do so. BTW, I understand that, as in the Kenyan case, USAID has played a very important role in support Pres. Kagame's policies.
    From these cases (and one could add Botswana and Zimbabwe in the late 1970s and 1980s to this tale), I conclude that political leadership is absolutely essential to bringing about fertility declines in Africa and that strong leadership in a relatively stable political envirnment can bring about very impressive results in a relatively short period of time. Unfortunately, as the case of Kenya also shows, when this leadership diminishes, programs can quickly collapse and progress can stall or even reverse.
    ]]>
    Steven Sinding Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:00:00 +0100
    Why Are Stillbirths An Invisible Loss of Life in Developing Countries? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/2859/
    Candice York:
    While I beleive the questions is of concern I am wondering if there is any consideration for the different causes of stillbirths and as such is research going to demarcate the different causes and thereby focus on the ones that may be affected or influenced by human or developmental factors?
    Cindy Stanton:
    As is often the case, where the problem is the greatest is where we have the least information. 98%+ of stillbirths occur in the developing world and we know much much less about causes of stillbirth than we do about the magnitude. Lawn and colleagues undertook a large literature review to estimate the percent of intrapartum stillbirths, that is stillbirths occurring after the onset of labor. Their work suggests that just under 1 in 3 stillbirths occur during the intrapartum period. If ever there was an issue that serves as a bridge between the concerns of the maternal AND the newborn health communities, it is intrapartum stillbirth. Improved care at delivery, particularly for women with complications, is key to progress for both.

    The fact that we consider "intrapartum" stillbirth a cause (strictly speaking it is timing of death and not biological cause) speaks volumes about the specificity of information that we have on SB cause of death. There are many different stillbirth cause of death classification schemes, many of which are highly sophisticated for use in developed countries and not really applicable in developing countries. However, there are quite a few that are applicable in low resource settings. Some of these schemes are more programmatically relevant than others. However,given the lack of consensus on a classification scheme, comparisons across study sites is very difficult. As part of the Global Alliance for the Prevention of Preterm Birth and Stillbirth (www.gappsseattle.org), I am working with colleagues on a set of global estimates of SB cause of death now, which is to be completed next spring. But, again, these are estimates from a statistical exercise, and what is needed is empirical data from improved cause of death registration in countries.
    Agatha Onovo:
    Still births go unnoticed because people want to forget the loss. In addition to the medical, social and economic indices for high rate of still births in Nigeria, the major problem is non-accessibility and non-availability of proper medical equipments. Consequently, care providers are constrained to provide the necessary care even when something could have been done. The question is what can be done to get political leaders to be commited to equiping the health facilities and providing basic amenities?
    Cindy Stanton:
    I agree, but I suspect the need is broader than that. When there are problems around delivery, women need to recognize them and seek care in a timely manner in order to benefit from the services available at facilities (ie, birth preparednes and all the things the safe motherhood community has been promoting for a couple of decades). Appropriate diagnosis and treatment is needed during pregnancy re: maternal infections and other maternal health conditions associated with stillbirth. I think there will always be a question of coordinating supply and demand.
    Mary Kent:
    What are the constraints on getting better estimates of stillbirths in less developed countries? What are some of the benefits of getting more accurate estimates?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Only 3% of stillbirths occur in countries with complete civil registration. What we know about the magnitude of stillbirths globally comes from 2 separate statistical exercises, which surprisingly came to the same global totals (3.2 million - Stanton et al. (uncertainty 2.5-4.1 million) 2006; and 3.3 million stillbirths - WHO 2006). However, despite agreement at the global level, the two series of estimates differ substantially at the country level, where the data are needed most. The concern is that where different sources provide highly varying estimates or estimates with great uncertainty, policy makers and others who could/should use the data, lose faith and find it easy to dismiss these numbers. All of the authors above acknowledge that these estimates are not precise and are a first attempt to prompt discussion/debate and hopefully improved data collection.

    Given that household-based surveys of women of reproductive age will probably remain the source of data that we all need to rely on in the immediate future (ie, while civil registration systems improve over time), there is a tremendous need to improve methods re: retrospective data collection. Current methods (or current practices at implementing existing methods) tend to seriously under-estimate stillbirths. However, health facilities can be a very important source of routine data, particularly in countries with fairly high institutional delivery. In those settings, one can benefit from a broader array of data re: cause of death, maternal condition and the health care received - all of which can be used to improve outcomes.
    Jose Luis Diaz-Rossello:
    Three facts about fetal deaths in Latin America:
    In Latin America the Perinatal Information System developed by CLAP/WMR a PAHO technical center has been a good registry of fetal deaths since 1987. Currently Congenital Syphilis fetal death toll remains invisible althoug it may represent near 15% of all fetal deaths. Most of the preventable fetal deaths in developing countries are near term.
    Cindy Stanton:
    Thanks for bringing up CLAP. It is a wealth of information and a great example of what routine data can provide, and how it can be presented in programmatically relevant ways. Realistically, some very low resource settings in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia would have a hard time collecting the breadth and depth of CLAP data, but certainly adaptations could be made and stillbirths could be added to routine health information systems.

    It's been said so many times re: the MDGs: what you count is what you do. If stillbirths are not on anyone's agenda, they will not be (and are not being) counted or addressed. Many people these days think that we currently have a real opportunity to change that now. Several things support this idea - but particularly the focus (and increased funding) on newborn health/survival and a renewed focus on maternal survival.
    Elizabeth Bocaletti:
    Most of the stillbirths that occur at home (the majority of the cases) are buried with out recording either the birth or the death. So, how [can we] deal with the registration of these cases? Are there any experiences in countries that have succeeded with birth and stillbirth registration?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Hi Elizabeth!
    As mentioned below, only about 3% of stillbirths occur in countries with complete civil registration (not surprisingly these are high income countries), so yes, this is a huge constraint. A number of other countries do have stillbirth death certificates/registration but have highly incomplete data. However, what you describe is not just a constraint re: registration. Most people feel quite certain that these events (the birth and the stillbirth, and no doubt some deaths to liveborn babies during the first week of life) simply do not get mentioned at all during household surveys when women provide basic data re:their birth or pregnancy histories (ie the section of survey questionnaires that give us the data to calculate SB, neonatal, infant, child mortality rates). Education is needed to recognize these events at all levels (women/families; health care providers and health planners). At the level of women/families/communities, I think we need substantial qualitative research to learn "how" to talk/inquire about these events. At the level of health care providers and planners, education is needed to recognize the burden of stillbirth - there are about 4 million neonatal deaths, of which 3 million occur during the first week of life (the majority on days 1 and 2) and 3 million stillbirths (about 1/3 of which occur after the onset of labor). It just makes so sense to ignore this loss.
    Anecdotally, I had a conversation with a colleague of mine last week who told me that when she drew attention to the issue of stillbirths in a conversation with a Ministry of Health official, he said "but they are already dead, why do we care?" I'm sure there are many people who think this way, and just do not realize the important proportion of these fetal deaths that could be prevented.
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    In developing countries, not all stillbirths may be reported, and due to resource constraints, stillbirths may not be accounted. Is budgetary increase the only solution, or will awareness building among the stakeholders hold a more sustainable solution?
    Cindy Stanton:
    In only partially agree. I'm not convinced that lack of resources is the primary reason why we have so very little data on stillbirths. I think many simply do not recognize the numbers or the extent to which stillbirths can be prevented. Awareness is needed at all levels, from families up to Ministries and to the MDGs and Countdown to 2015. A clarification for this question and questions above: when I say that women/families do not report stillbirths - I am in no way implying that these losses do not have a profound effect on the woman/families. There may be cultural reasons for not reporting these events, and/or it may well be that we just do not know how to ask the questions in a way to elicit the correct response.
    Achen Annet Nancy:
    I appreciate the topic of discussion but suggest that an issue of several lives lost in abotions be included in the discussion.
    Cindy Stanton:
    You are right that this discussion is about stillbirths, so that is what we are sticking to here today. However, when discussing stillbirth, the issue of not recognizing other types of pregnancy loss is often the white elephant in the room. It is unclear how much, if any, avoidance of this discussion and the inevitable debates that would ensue, have contributed to the invisibility of stillbirths on national and international health agendas.
    Dr. Khaled Shamsul Islam:
    It may be serious and urgent for developing countries like bangladesh where do not tracked in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Yet MDGs 4 and 5 (reducing child and maternal mortality, respectively) cannot be reached without improving newborn and obstetric care, which also affect stillbirths. Can we start to ensure through research, adequate monitoring, and program planning take stillbirths into account?

    Now my question is - for this perspective how we can start a Regional alliance for working together to achieve the MDGs goal as well as our regional well being?

    Cindy Stanton:
    Certainly there are many areas of research that are needed, but routine data sources (health facility registers, adding stillbirths to existing community registers, for example) could be an immediate (relatively immediate) source of data on stillbirths. Of course, collecting data serves no purpose unless it is compiled, reviewed and acted upon and there is no guarantee that that would happen. Implementing such a system would require political will and leadership. The magnitude of the problem, however, justifies such effort.

    RE: starting a regional alliance, my suggestion would be to pursue this effort through existing organizations. For example, the Partnership for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health, the International Stillbirth Alliance, Saving Newborn Lives/Save the Children, the White Ribbon Alliance and/or your regional professional organizations (Pediatrics, OB/GYN, midwifery association,etc.)
    Lopamudra Paul:
    Maternal Mortality ratio and Infant (specially neonatal) mortality rates are high in south asia. moreover, institutional delivery is very low in this region. it is also noted that still births are common phenomena in many countries in this region. do we reduce the occurance of still birth with incease in institutional deliveries? further, will improved Ante Natal Care reduce the occurance of still births? Do medical assistance at home deliveries also revese the situtaion? in addition, do complications during pregnancy and delivery lead to still births?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Two decades of safe motherhood (and common sense) has certainly made clear that institutional delivery or antenatal care will not lead to improvements in maternal or newborn health if the quality of care (skills, use of evidence-based practices) provided is low and if women/newborns are not able to access care in a timely manner. There are also additional risk factors such as inter-generational nutritional issues that lead to low birth weight that influence pregnancy outcome. So, as with maternal mortality,there is a lot of scatter in the relationship between stillbirth and institutional delivery. RE: medical assistance at home-based delivery, there are not that many places in the developing world where this is common (Indonesia stands out with their bidan di desa program. A recent analysis using DHS data suggested that a home-based professional was not associated with lower risk of first day or first week deaths. Data were not available re:stillbirths). And, yes,stillbirths are associated with maternal complications - if you write me,I can send you 2 articles that might be of interest to you.
    Dr. Khaled Shamsul Islam:
    In Bangladesh only 14% are in institutional delivery and almost 90% [of] data are not available for delivery perspective--so it is really difficult to identify the correct figure of stillbirth. How we can proceed?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Interestingly enough, it looks like Bangladesh seems to have had greater success at measuring stillbirths in large population-based surveys than any other country. The stillbirth rates from the DHS (ranging from around 27-33 per 1000) are quite close to high quality data from the Matlab Demographic Surveillance Site of ICDDR,B where a sophisticated, prospective data collection system is in place. (And, yes, one should not always compare Matlab data to the whole country, but I will here given the lack of other data sources). So, I think we all have much to learn from Bangladesh interviewers or respondents or both. In many of the other countries where this type of data has been added to surveys, the estimates appear implausibly low, particularly relative to early neonatal mortality (which may also be under-estimated in survey-based data). I have wondered if the seeming success in Bangladesh at identifying pregnancy losses in surveys was due to the great interest that exists re: menstrual regulation - leading to very careful completion of data on pregnancy, outcomes, gestational age, etc, and that improved stillbirth rates were just a lucky by-product of those practices. This is just speculation on my part. I do think we need to learn more from Bangladesh.
    DR. JAMES AKPABLIE:
    I think we the experts and health workers know what can be done to prevent or at least reduce still births; why is it difficult to put a birth or late pregnancy monitoring scheme/strategy in place to prevent still birth?
    Cindy Stanton:
    See responses to similar questions in this discussion. Among other things, the lack of prioritization may be due in part to a lack of knowledge re: the magnitude of the problem (if it is never counted, who would know?) and recognition that interventions to address many of causes of SB are readily available.
    Mary Kent:
    How does the rate of stillbirths in a population compare with rates of infant mortality? Are the differentials similar, for example, with regard to education and poverty?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Infant mortality rates vary from around 5 per 1000 live births in industrialized countries to about 110 per 1000 live births (West Africa), with the highest IMR for an individual country at 165 (Afghanistan) and the lowest at 2 (Sweden) (source: Unicef's State of the World's Children). Stillbirth rates for industrialized countries are around 5 per 1000 births (live and stillbirths), again with northern European countries as low as about 3 per 1000. The stillbirth rates for sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia according to the global estimates I worked on, as well as the WHO estimates, are both at 32 per 1000 births. At an individual country level, one sees estimates of the (population-based) stillbirth rate as high as 45-60 per 1000 births.

    I've never seen a cross-country comparative study of stillbirth by SES differentials among low income countries. Disparities re: stillbirth have been documented for high income countries (see Goy et al Pediatric and Perinatal Epi 2008 as an example). I just ran perinatal mortality by woman's education on the DHS Statcompiler. At quick glance, you do not see a strong relationship (in some countries there is a clear gradient - decreasing SBRs with higher education), but not really in the majority. However, this is NOT an authoritative answer to your question. Such surveys do not measure SBRates very well.
    Y.S. Sivan:
    1. Are there exclusive studies on "Social Determinants of Still Birth"? Has the UN / WHO / UNICEF taken any initiative to encourage nations to include specific questions in the national Census and / or sample surveys, national health surveys to ensure regular flow of data (and integrate into a reliable global data-tracking mechanism)?

    2. What is the proportion of research spending on still birth from the point of view of the 10/90 Gap?

    (Major health and social development search engines may consider including 'still birth' as a sub-set for easily tracking down the research priorities and data).
    Cindy Stanton:
    I can answer some of your questions, but all of them.

    RE: what have various agencies have done to date:
    1) WHO developed one of the two existing series of global stillbirth rates, and raised the issue of global perinatal mortality back in the 1980's. WHO staff along with members of the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and the Global Alliance for the Prevention of Prematurity and Stillbirth (GAPPS) are currently working on updating/improving the global estimates for 2005. GAPPS staff is working on generating global stillbirth cause of death estimates and updated estimates for intrapartum stillbirth are in preparation. Dean Jamison authored a chapter in the recent edition of Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries showing how burden of disease can be calculated for stillbirths. Just last week the International Stillbirth Alliance had a large conference in Norway - from which I am sure there will be proceedings with results from very recent research on the topic. From May 7-10,2009 in Seattle, there will be a Gates-funded Landscape Review of Prematurity and Stillbirth in order to highlight a) prioritized research questions urgently needing attention and b) existing evidence-based interventions which require immediate action re: scale up (see: www.gappsseattle.org). Findings from a validation study in Ghana of verbal autopsy for stillbirth cause of death was recently published (Edmond, K and colleagues). This is not at all meant as a definitive list of efforts that are underway. These are merely the efforts that immediately came to mind as I respond to these questions. The takehome message is that a great deal of exciting work is underway and it seems that the invisibility of stillbirths may be changing.

    Just a few notes:
    RE measuring stillbirths in a census, this is not something that I personally would advise, and I suspect many demographers would agree. The census interview is simply not appropriate for in-depth questioning and very careful formulation of potentially sensitive questions, etc.
    However, I am a proponent of trying to measure stillbirths using other data collection approaches and feel that improving existing methods in use in household-based surveys is a top priority.
    Ngozi Enelamah:
    What is the medical status of stillbirths? Are they reported or regarded as abortions?
    What are the major causes of stillbirths? How can this be seen as a public health issue and Could the cause be publicized so that they can be prevented?
    Cindy Stanton:
    This is not straight forward to answer. Birth weight and/or gestational age cut-offs determine when pregnancy losses are considered spontaneous abortions versus late fetal death (actually, stillbirth is a colloquial term, the term used by the International Classification of Diseases, Rev 10, is late fetal death, at least for pregnancy losses at 1000 grams birthwt or 28 weeks gestation or more). If I remember correctly, when my colleagues and I were working on the literature review for the global stillbirth estimates, we identified around 20 different definitions of stillbirth used by statistical agencies in various countries; gestational age cut-offs were as low as 20 weeks; birthwt as low as 500 grams. So, in short, it varies from country to country.

    RE: cause of death, as mentioned elsewhere, there are many different stillbirth cause of death classification schemes, and they are infrequently comparable. My colleagues and I are close to finishing a systematic review of SB cause of death, and we are abstracting data into the following common categories:
    Maternal conditions (eclampsia/PIH, other maternal pre-existing conditions); abruption or antepartum hemorrhage; infections (syphilis and other maternal and fetal specific infections); congenital abnormalities; intrapartum (fresh SBs - obstruction, CPD); unexplained intrapartum causes, unexplained antepartum causes and unclassifiable. This does not constitute a "classification scheme" - it was designed to capture data from a variety of different classifications. To note - after reviewing over 36,000 abstracts, applying inclusion/exclusion criteria, etc for the review, we will end with SB cause of data from only approximately 100 papers. In other words, there are not a lot of data out there, particularly for low income countries.
    Linna Lisette Gröppel:
    Could health promoters do more in matters of stillbirths in developing countries? Is it possible that health promotion and health communication have an effect in reference to stillbirths and a facility to monitor stillbirths?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Education at the community level is needed, and I do not see why community registers could not track stillbirths, as some do for maternal deaths. One thing that I have not mentioned here yet is the problem of misclassification between stillbirths and early neonatal deaths. THis is a problem when women are asked to report their pregnancy outcomes, as well as a problem at health facilities. In the case of home-based births, a woman may never be shown a fetus born dead or a child that dies very quickly after birth. Thus, she may really not know the status of the fetus/infant at birth. Or, even if she does, there may be cultural or other reasons for claiming the outcome as stillbirth versus death following live birth. The same issue exists in health facilities world wide. Providers' perception of the viability of the infant (particularly very preterm births) and other reasons may well affect their final call re: its status at birth.
    samwel chale:
    Stillbirth shows that it related directly to poverty. At the same time poverty is problem in most of the developing countries, so how can we advise our government so that they can include into their strategic plans while most of their budgets are donor funded?
    Cindy Stanton:
    The good news is that much of what needs to be done to reduce stillbirths is included in maternal/newborn health care packages now being promoted.
    Farid Midhet:
    The importance of stillbirths is also because the intrapartum deaths are a sensitive indicator of quality of obstetric care; hence the proportion of 'fresh' stillbirths (and, until recently, the perinatal mortality rate)could be used as proxy indicators for maternal mortality. Identification of stillbirths and their causes, therefore, is important from EmONC perspective. Your comments?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Hi Farid,
    I completely agree - see answers to previous questions. One could also argue that it is important to track stillbirths in order to be able to interpret possible changes in early neonatal mortality (as obstetric care improves, it is likely that some fetuses that would have died (ie stillbirths) will survive delivery but may die shortly thereafter. As health care systems and general health improve, both indicators improve.
    Dr. Anima Sharma:
    Stillbirths are indeed a very big issue attributing to the loss of life before the unborn baby even breathes his first. There are several socioeconomic reasons [for] stillborns in the developing countrues like India, which include, Poverty, Early Marriage, Illiteracy, Ignorance, lack of decision making, malnourishmnet/ malnutrition, non-accessibility and non-availability of proper medical facilities, lack of care during pregnancy and these issues [are] further aggrevated by traditions and beliefs. This makes the entire scenario very intriguing. There have been several researches conducted to find out the reasons but I think now the stage has come when we should plan a thoughtful action plan to combat this situation. Do not you think that a multi-disciplinary team consisting of Medical Practitioners, Social Anthropologists, Demographers, Psychologists, Policy makers, bureaucrats etc. should jointly intervene and address the issue unitedly? Are there any such intervention going-on in any of the Developing Countries? If yes, then what is the outcome or the success rate?
    Cindy Stanton:
    I don't know of any truly multi-disciplinary teams, as you describe. I do agree that anthropologists, sociologists and political scientists could assist these efforts by exploring societie's reluctance to address or even acknowledge the loss represented by stillbirths.
    Rachel Breman:
    How do you suggest improving education amongst health professionals to ensure that stillbirths are getting recorded in a way that can useful for hopefully preventing them in the future?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Hi Rachel,
    That is a very good question and not one for which even high income countries have found an answer. (Some argue that differences in infant mortality across developed countries are to some extent due to differences in practices re: defining a live birth.) Personal practices and beliefs come into play, as well as issues regarding things like insurance coverage. I guess the bottom line is that when something is recognized as important, individuals and the systems in which they work, establish expectations to accomplish their goals. I do not have evidence of this, but I strongly suspect that medical and midwifery schools in developing countries pay little heed to the finer points of these definitions. Certainly, few developing countries have stillbirth death certificates, another signal from the government and society as a whole, that a stillbirth is important.
    hmal:
    Appreciating highly the problem of invisibility I would ask about successful examples in developing countries. Are there studies that define stillbirths as “loss of life” in human reproduction models or include them in summary indicators [of] life expectancy or healthy life expectancy, for example?
    Cindy Stanton:
    Very quickly, before we close out today - see Dean Jamison's chapter on the calculation of disability-adjusted life years (DALY's) for stillbirth in the recent edition of Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries.
    ]]>
    Cindy Stanton Thu, 13 Nov 2008 18:00:00 +0100
    What Are the Financial Implications of Aging in the United States? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/2855/
    John Rohe:
    Hi Ron,
    Here is my article on the subject (pertaining to the US) as of 2003: http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/thirteen-four/xiii-4-248.pdf
    There are two ways to impact the dependency ratio: retirement age and immigration. Are the figures from 2003 (in my article) still accurate? At the time, Leon Bouvier assisted with the demographic computations.
    Thank you,
    John Rohe
    Ron Lee:
    John -- I read your article; thanks for sending it to me. The outlook for US demography has not changed much since 2003. However, there are a couple of points that struck me. You mention that the TFR had fallen to 1.7 in the mid-1970s, which is approx true; however, it subsequently rose to replacement level and has been bouncing around between 2.0 and 2.1 for many years. So this is a sharp contrast to the other industrial nations which generally have considerably lower fertility. Second, you refer to the UN study on the amount of immigration that would be required to maintain the old age dependency ratio at its 1995 level through 2050, and report that the UN calculates a total of 593 million would be needed, if retirement remains at 65. I myself did a calculation of the pace of immigration that would be required to make Soc Sec finances balance through 2075 (that is, make the summary actuarial balance equal roughly zero) and found 5 million per year, which over 75 years would be 375 million, a bit less than the UN number. However, the basic conclusion is the same as yours either way: that level of immigration is not an appealing policy option.
    Tina Dutta:
    In this advanced era of living, where medicines and lifestyles have improved a lot with low birth and death rates, aging of population is an inevitable outcome in most of the developed countries. Of course, the age pyramid can not be reversed now immediately, but how best can we utilize our human resouces [so] that the elderly population can be considered as productive- financially and socially rather than unproductive consumers only?
    Ron Lee:
    Tina -- I agree that population aging is inevitable. I think that many of our institutions that are impacted by aging are rather inflexible, and were originally developed to be effective in a different demographic context. Social Security, Medicare, Institutional Medicaid, many private pension plans -- all these get into fiscal trouble with longer life and population aging. I think we need to redesign these institutions so that they at least permit individuals to respond to their circumstances in ways they views appropriate. Social Security has gone a good distance in this direction, trying to present workers with a fair tradeoff between continuing to work longer and getting a higher pension when they do retire, or retiring earlier and receiving a lower pension. Personally, I don't think policies should take for granted that the best solution is for people to retire later. I think we should let people choose, but set things up in such a way that their choice does not impose costs on others. In fact, I would like to see our institutions permit leisure (time not doing wage labor) to be taken throughout the life cycle as a person chooses, rather than being all bunched together at the end of life.
    Barbara Haley:
    Even though the ratio of elderly to the working-age population in the United States will roughly double over the next few decades, the dependency ratio is going down. What alternative to the regressive payroll tax (that currently funds old age) should the US adopt, to take full advantage of this?
    Ron Lee:
    Barbara -- The Total Dependency Ratio is the ratio of the youth population plus the elderly population to the working age population. A more refined measure is the Support Ratio based on empirical age profiles of consumption and labor income, used to form the ratio of equivalent workers to equivalent consumers. This ratio declines at .2% per year from now through 2050 (analogous to a rise in the dependency ratio). This rate of decline is, I think, very slow, particularly in comparison to the much bigger changes in the finances of the Social Security system or Medicare. But by construction, it is considering not only these govt programs targeted to the elderly, but rather all govt programs and also the age patterns of private consumption.

    You raise a good point about the payroll tax being regressive. I agree. The original idea was that the progressivity of the benefit schedule would out-weigh the regressivity of the payroll tax, but because poor people die younger than rich people, it is not clear whether actual benefits are progressive.

    One could, of course, fund old age benefits out of the income tax, but I think most people would rather see a tighter relation between what benefits you receive and what contributions (payroll taxes) you pay. One way to do this is the so-called National Defined Contribution systems that are common in Europe, but these do nothing to make the system more progressive. That then requires a separate redistributive component, which some plans like the Swedish one have.
    Richard Cincotta:
    Commentators on population aging regularly make statements like, "the U.S. population is aging much slower than either China's or Japan's." Yet, only once (a US Census Bureau/IPC slide) have I seen a metric to assess such a rate. What metric would you recommend for comparing this phenomenon?
    Ron Lee:
    I don't recall the details, but the metric I have often seen is something like the number of years it took for the proportion 65+ to go from 5% to 10%. Those thresholds aren't right, but I think that concept is the one most commonly used.

    Cecily Westermann:
    Initially, Social Security Old Age benefits were available only to workers who contributed to the system. Later this benefit was extended to "non working spouses". According to the Department of Labor, 73% of women with children between 6 and 18 (no child under six) are working, therefore earning their own benefits.

    If Social Security is truly expecting a shortfall, why can't non-working spousal benefits be phased out of the program?
    Ron Lee:
    As I recall, a person gets to choose whether to take a Soc Sec benefit based on their own earnings history or on that of their spouse (or someone to whom they were previously married for at least ten years), where they would be entitled to 50% of the spouses benefit level. I am not sure I have that exactly right, but that is the general idea.

    Female labor force participation is really quite high, as you note, but many of those women have had quite interrupted work histories and lots of part time work, while they took time out to raise children. The benefit they would qualify for based on their earnings histories would often be very low. And for those women who were out of the labor force for most of their lives, the benefit level based on their earnings might be zero (if they didn't work for at least ten years).

    I would prefer other policies to deal with the projected shortfall in Social Security.
    Emmanuel Amodu:
    What are the financial institutions doing about [the] lending rate to [retired] and aging people? Are there special packages for them? thanks
    Ron Lee:
    There are reverse mortgages, but few older people use them. there are also special investment funds that automatically adjust the risk-rate of return tradeoff as people age. Probably there are many others, but this is not an area I know much about, despite the title of this discussion. However, I suspect that there is a lot of room for development of other special financial instruments for the elderly.
    Rune Bakken:
    Some European countries are facing the same shift in numbers of elderly vs the still working population. Will an altered immigration policy in the West improve this ratio as an attempt to maintain socioeconomic stability, simultaneously alleviating the imbalance of young vs old in e.g. the Middle East and Africa?
    Ron Lee:
    Immigration as a way to moderate the extent of population aging in the industrial nations is, of course, quite controversial. From a demographic point of view it certainly has some effect on the age distributions in the receiving industrial nations, and less so in the Third World sending nations because the that population is so much larger. However, the demographic effects on the receiving countries' old age dependency ratio are surprisingly small, particularly in the longer run, since the immigrants grow old themselves. Also, the TFRs in the sending countries are often not much higher, and may be even lower, than in the receiving country (e.g. China and the US), so there will be less and less affect on fertility in the industrial nations. There is a fiscal gain per immigrant in the US, given the current composition of the immigrant stream, and that effect is large on a per immigrant basis but not very big on a national basis (see Chapter 7 in the New Americans, a Nat Acad Press report).
    Kelvin Pollard:
    What remedies for the effects of population aging on entitlement programs have Europe and Japan tried? Can some of these efforts (in full or modified form) be applied in the United States?
    Ron Lee:
    I should know more about this than I do. The main thing that comes to my mind is switching to National Defined Contribution (NDC) public pension programs in Sweden, Latvia, Italy, and to systems with similar features in Germany and France.

    These systems are designed to mimic Defined Contribution systems (like 401Ks in the US), in the sense that each individual has a (imaginary) fund based on the amount contributed in the past and a rate of return that is determined by a simple rule, like the rate of growth of the labor force plus the rate of growth of the wage. these systems should adjust automatically to demographic change, for example low fert causes slow labor force growth which reduces the rate of return earned on these accounts. And mortality decline raises life expectancy and means that the fund accumulated at the time of retirement, which must be converted to an annuity by the govt, converts to lower benefits per year.

    I can well imagine a system like that in the US, but it does require some sort of safety net or redistributive program to round out the system.
    Marlene Lee:
    How do the financial implications of population aging in the United States compare with the effects of population aging in other countries? What lessons, if any, can the U.S. learn from institutional arrangements in other countries?
    Ron Lee:
    Well, population aging in the US is much more mild than in other industrial countries because our fertility here is around replacement level, rather than being way below it as in europe and Japan. In my view, we could keep our current Soc Sec system in its present form if we wanted to, by raising the payroll tax by about 4 or 5% which would achieve indefinite sustainability. This is not an option in these other countries because their aging will be so much greater, their public pensions are much more generous than ours, and their ages of retirement are generally younger.

    Health care is a different matter, and I won't try to address that although it is extremely important.
    Marlene Lee:
    There is a lot of information on the fiscal impact of programs for the elderly, but what is the impact of population aging on private spending, e.g. does family spending on elderly care mean that they are spending less on education for other family members? Are the effects on private spending similar or different across countries?
    Ron Lee:
    In the US, financial private transfers or actual support for their consumption, to the elderly by family members is not common and averages out to close to zero. But in most of the Third World, family support is the main source of support for the elderly, and indeed pop aging imposes heavy burdens on these families and may compete with their ability to fund their children's education. In many of these countries, private spending on children's education is substantial.

    In the industrial nations, the competition between consumption costs of the elderly and education for the children plays out in the public sector rather than in private spending, and I believe it is a grave concern. I am very worried about what will happen, in the US and in other industrial nations.
    Carl Haub:
    Immigration of people of working age helps keep the worker-retiree ratio more manageable, at least I would think it does. But immigrants age too and would become part of the "problem" themselves at some point. So, it would seem that, with any future restrictive immigration legislation, we would be shooting ourselves in the financial foot. Agree?
    Ron Lee:
    Carl -- I agree with your framing of the question: immigration helps to some degree with the old age dependency ratio, but the effect here is much smaller than most people would expect, because of your second point -- that the immigrants age too. So in my view, the fiscal effects of immigration are not very important, and I think immigration policy should be set based on other considerations.
    Meir Sokoler:
    Consumption per-capita increases with age, but is it also becoming more concentrated on fewer products and services? Are there any studies on this?
    Ron Lee:
    Meir:

    A tough question. As you say, consumption per capita rises strongly with age in the US and in many European and other industrial nations, although it is flat with age in most Third World countries (all this in cross-sectional terms). But what is the composition of that rising consumption in the US? A great deal of it is due to a higher proportion of spending on health care, both through private spending and through public spending (Medicare, Medicaid). And after age 80 or so, long term care kicks in dramatically.

    If we focus on the non-health care and long term care part of private spending, I am not very sure about how the composition of spending changes. A student here at Berkeley in Demography, Emilio Zagheni, did a very interesting research paper on this topic, as part of looking at how pop aging would affect the CO2 emissions, but I don't recall his findings.
    charlie teller:
    Ron, Please relate your topic to the dual issues of younger-worker immigration to the US, and especially of health care workers from abroad. European countries attract young workers to meet their aging problems, and what have been the financial implications? What can the US learn from them?
    Ron Lee:
    Charlie:
    Immigration of younger workers has less demographic impact than one might expect on, say, the old age dep ratio in 2050, because they also grow old. To have a big and lasting effect, there must be an accelerating rate of immigration. The fiscal gain is greater if we restrict immigration to those with higher skills or higher education, but I am not suggesting that as a policy because there are many other considerations. The question of health care workers is certainly important, and I am not very well informed on this. But I see it has having two parts: first, there is immigration of less skilled workers who take low paying jobs in nursing homes and hospitals, helping to keep those institutions running at a lower cost than otherwise. Second there are the higher skilled immigrants who have been trained as nurses and doctors. Well, others will know better what the issues are here.
    John Gist:
    Ken Manton has estimated that declines in disability rates, declines in nursing home utilization rates, and improvements in health and longevity will vastly improve the outlook for Social Security and Medicare? How do you assess his findings and conclusions?
    Ron Lee:
    John -- Ken Manton has done very important work in this area, and was the first to show this decline in disability rates, which is extremely important for our long term outlook. But the picture now looks more complex, e.g. as discussed in an article in Demography a couple of years ago by multiple authors, perhaps including Manton, Schoeni, Martin, Freeman. They reported that while IADLS, the less severe forms of disability, have been declining steadily, the ADLs, which are more basic and lead to nursing home stays, have not been declining. So I am less clear on what the bottom line is here than I was a few years ago. I want to see more of the international evidence. Also, the role of assistive devices and other new technologies is very important and may make it possible for people to remain active and at home for much longer even if their biological functional status has not improved much compared to earlier people of the same age.

    This is all very important, not only for its fiscal implications, but also for quality life implications of older people.
    Kelvin Pollard:
    How to you think the incoming Obama Administration might address this issue? Do you have any advice for the new administration?
    Ron Lee:
    Kelvin -- important question. 1) I think immigration policy should be determined on the basis of other considerations; I don't think the fiscal implications of immigration are very important when you combine federal, state and local impacts. 2) Population aging in the US is much more mild than in other industrial nations. Other things equal, pop aging and rising old age dependency ratios will lead to about .2% per year slower growth in consumption per equivalent adult consumer than otherwise. This strikes me as being really quite small. Of course, this effect is concentrated in certain areas, particularly in public pensions, health care, and long term care, and if we focus on those alone the effect is much, much bigger, proportionately. My own view is that we should stick with our current Soc Sec benefit structure, while raising payroll taxes by about 4 to 5%, which would put the system on a sustainable basis for the indefinite future. We could then have some sort of govt managed private program on top of this, perhaps, but without reducing the current PAYGO benefit structure. 3) The really big issues is health care and perhaps long term care. ("perhaps" because of uncertainty about disability trends). I am not going to discuss those.
    Dana Hess:
    As the ratio of elderly to the working-age population in the United States increases over the next few decades, how does this effect employers who provide benefits? Is there any data/evidence that depict an increased cost of covering older workers?
    Ron Lee:
    Dana -- a good question, and I am the wrong person to answer it. Nonetheless, I will try to say something here, although this may be wrong. I think that indeed the costs of employer provided health benefits for the elderly is high, and discourages them from hiring or retaining older workers. This exacerbates the problems of population aging, since it makes it harder for older workers to work, perhaps leading to earlier retirement etc. Wish I could say more.
    John Haaga:
    Discussions of the fiscal impacts of population aging in the US highlight Medicare and Social Security, which is natural enough. But long-term care for the disabled elderly is also a big concern --a mixed federal-state-local responsibility. Has there been recent work on either explaining or forecasting expenditure trends?
    Ron Lee:
    John -- Good question, and I am not up on what has been done on this lately. Of course the numbers of the oldest old are rising very rapidly, and those are the main clients for long term care. But, as has come up earlier in this discussion, disability rates have also been declining, at least as measured by IADLs, but perhaps not for ADLs. This means (I say optimistically) falling rates of long term care usage at a given old age, but increasing numbers at risk at each age. What this will mean in terms of long term care use per working age person, I don't know.
    Philip Sampson:
    Are there any studies that show the relationship in an industrial nation between public spending on the elderly [and] spending on education?
    Ron Lee:
    Phil -- I only know of one such study, but I bet there are others. The study I have seen is by Gruber and Wise, the same guys who did pathbreaking work on retirement. This study looked at govt spending in OECD countries over a few decades, in relation to proportion elderly. As I recall, they found that for each 1% increase in the proportion elderly in a country, there was .5% increase in public spending on the elderly. This meant that with pop aging, the benefit levels per old person tended to drop slightly (because .5%<1%). But they also found that total govt spending was unaffected, and that means that the 1% increase in proportion elderly, leading to .5% increase in spending on the elderly, was crowding out .5 percent of spending on other things, including education.

    There have also been a number of studies of the effects of varying proportions of elderly across school districts or larger geographic units in the US and school spending per pupil. I think the results have been inconclusive. But in this case, it is a matter of voting behavior rather than of crowding out in the govt budgets, I think. We found that in California, at the state level older people pay more in taxes than they cost in benefits. Not sure about the local level, but I would expect the same to be true there.
    Marlene Lee:
    How does social spending on the elderly compare with spending on children, not just in terms of expenditures but also with respect to how these expenditures may provide economic stimulus?
    Ron Lee:
    Marlene -- in the US, I think around four times as much is spent per elderly person as per child, combining federal, state and local programs. Of course, at the private level, we spend a great deal more on rearing our children than we do on supporting our elderly parents. That is the public/private division of labor in the US and most industrial nations including Japan at this point, but in many countries it is quite different.

    Providing economic stimulus: Here I am not sure. My first inclination is to say that a dollar spent for an old person has just the same effect as a dollar spent for a child, but I have not thought about this before and could be missing a key point.
    Meir Sokoler:
    In some of your studies you present empircal evidence on the differences between realized and anticipated surviorship rates from different [vintages]. Is there any systematic data base referring to the distribution(s) of forecast errors in this regard?
    Ron Lee:
    Meir:

    Tim Miller and I published a paper in Demography, maybe it was 2003 or 2004, on assessing the performance of the Lee-Carter method. I think that article has the information you are asking about. Since that time, i think there have been quite a few studies, including a recent one Soc Sec, on this. The Lee-Miller paper looked at imaginary forecasts done using the method starting in around 1920, for all forecast horizons, and then 1921 etc., so there was a huge data base developed.

    Ron

    For additional information:

    Recent Trends in U.S. Mortality and Population Aging, an interview with Ron Lee, PRB webcast and podcast.

    "Older Workers and Retirement," in Today's Research on Aging, , a newsletter produced by PRB and funded by the University of Michigan Demography Center.

    Ronald Lee and John Haaga, Government Spending in an Older America.

    You will find links to Dr. Lee’s publications at www.ceda.berkeley.edu/papers/rlee/.

    ]]>
    Ron Lee Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:00:00 +0100
    Growing up in North America: How Are Children Faring Economically? http://discuss.prb.org/content/interview/detail/2854/
    Daniel Vergara:
    How have the children's health indicators in Mexico have progressed over time since NAFTA started? I dare to assume that in the aggregate level children's health may have improved, but I am almost positive that the differences have been critically deepened. How right or wrong is my assumption?
    Nashieli Ramirez Hernandez:
    Mexico’s mortality rate for children below five years of age has decreased from 44.2 for each 1,000 births in 1990 to 25 in 2003. In terms of infant mortality, in the same period, the country’s rate went from 36.2 to 20.5 deaths- These numbers place Mexico slightly below the average for Latin America and the Caribbean, which is 34 deaths of children below the age of five for each 1,000 births. Within the country, there is a high degree of unevenness in these indicators. The highest infant mortality rates are in the states with the greatest levels of marginalization and poverty. In the states with the highest infant the risk of dying was 60 per cent greater than in all the states with lower levels of marginalization. The variations within some states are even greater, especially in those with higher levels of marginalization. In Oaxaca, for example, a child from the indigenous municipality of Santiago Amoltepec has three times the risk of dying before reaching his first year of life than a child from the urban municipality of Santa María del Tule.

    You can look for more information in the report “Growing Up in North America: Child Health and Safety in Canada, the United States, and Mexico” www.childreninnorthamerica.org. Information in Spanish in www.infanciacuenta.org.mx
    Mary Kent:
    Which Canadian children have the highest poverty rates? How does Canada's child poverty compare with the levels in the U.S. or Mexico?
    Katherine Scott:
    In Canada, roughly 12% of children under age 18 are poor – according to national sources – roughly the same proportion as twenty years ago, this despite sustained economic growth up until recently. Levels of child poverty are lower in Canada than in the United States or Mexico - in part because of transfers to families and the availability of universal health care. That said, many Canadian children face high levels of persistent poverty. According to the 2001 Census, 40 percent of Aboriginal children under age 18 lived in households below Canada’s pre-tax poverty line. Visible minority children, many living in new immigrant families, struggle economically as well: One in every two children in recent immigrant families (49%) lived in poverty in 2000. The poverty rate for children with disabilities was 28% in 2000; families with a parent or child with a disability are much more likely to rely on social assistance as a primary source of income.
    Nadwa:
    Research has found that higher remittance flows are associated with lower poverty, better health and higher levels of education for children in the developing world. What is the impact of a drop in remittances to Mexico from the slowdown in the U.S. economy and tougher immigration restrictions on Mexican children in recent months?
    Nashieli Ramirez Hernandez:
    In Mexico remittance flows are the second largest source of external funding, after oil sales. Mexico is [one of] the top four remittance recipients in the world, [and] reported remittance inflows for $25 billion in 2007. According to recently published official data, migrant remittances to Mexico declined by 2.6 percent during January-May 2008, compared to the same period last year. The relation between lower poverty, better health and higher levels of education for children and remittances is clear, if you considered that remittances mostly or sometimes completely cover general consumption and/or housing in the poorest states in the country. One estimate indicates that 80 percent of the money received goes for food, clothing, health care, transportation, education and housing expenses.

    The ministry of social development already declares that as result of the decline of remittances, poverty rates will began to grow. As you see we are going to have problems: less income and people that are beginning to come back unemployed. In recent weeks, Mexican newspapers have been filled with news about the imminent return of thousands of Mexican migrants because of the economic crisis facing the United States. These news [reports] are talking about the return of 500 people a day for Sonora (El Financiero, 25/10/08), 4 thousand migrants from Chicago who returned to the Federal District (The Weekly, 14/10/08), 20 thousand families living in the United States who have returned to Michoacan so far this year (La Jornada Michoacán, 10/10/08). Finally, the National Migration Institute said it had detected a growing number of Mexican immigrants who return to Mexico in its final form by the economic crisis in the U.S. (El Universal, 30/9/08).
    Rahat Bari Tooheen:
    It appears that the benefits of globalization have not been uniformly distributed among ethnic minorities, even in the US. What policy level changes are needed in this regard, and what can the American people do to help?
    Mark Mather:
    “Globalization” is a somewhat vague concept but I think of it in terms of the increasing flow of people, tasks, and ideas across national borders. In the United States, globalization is linked to a decline in blue-collar manufacturing jobs, although automation and technological advances has also played a role in that decline.

    Today, most high-paying jobs require a college degree, so those with only a high school diploma or less are at a major disadvantage. From a children’s policy perspective, we need to make sure that today’s youth can compete in the global economy by providing them with the necessary education and skills.

    You can find more information about this in PRB’s recent report on the U.S. Labor Force: http://www.prb.org/Publications/PopulationBulletins/2008/uslaborforce.aspx

    Patricia Carmona:
    In terms of the current economic crisis, how will it impact children in the region, and which policy reforms are crucial to lessen this impact in all three countries?
    Katherine Scott:
    Given what we know, there are a few key policy areas where governments can make a difference in the lives of children growing up in poverty. Building and sustaining services and supports for children and their families is essential to creating a context within which children can grow and thrive. Government income programs can and do play an important role in preventing and alleviating child and family poverty. Similarly, quality child care, affordable housing, and universal health care are key components of a comprehensive poverty reduction strategy. Targeted programs that address the challenges of particular groups of children such as Aboriginal children are needed as well. Adjustment assistance for those families directly impacted by economic dislocation is also important as its absence can devastate families and whole communities.

    Education is another area in which government policies help children position themselves in the new global knowledge economy. Although education by itself does not guarantee economic security, education has become more important in all three economies. Lack of education has brought real losses in income and relative social status to workers and their families. Improving the quality of education, especially in Mexico, is important to realizing the potential of children.

    Investment in children and youth is critical in good economic times and bad. The danger as recessions take hold and public revenues decline is that supports and services for those children and youth will be scaled back. Such a strategy is short-sighted in the extreme – even a year is a long time in the life of a child. Investment in children is an essential strategy in development productive economies and societies, able to adapt and thrive in the face of global pressures such as we are experiencing today.

    Mark Mather:
    We need to think about children as an investment, just like the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Invest in the long term, and eventually you will see big dividends. Given the current problems in the U.S. economy, there may be a temptation to reduce spending on health, education, or other programs that invest in children’s development. But we need to ensure that children have the resources and skills they need to become productive adults. In 10 or 20 years, today’s children will provide the backbone of the U.S. economy.
    Jason Bremner:
    Research shows that many outcomes depend on early childhood education. In the U.S. we rely on programs such as Head Start to provide opportunities to children and families who are economically disadvantaged. What are the trends for Head Start enrollment and funding in the U.S.? Are they keeping up with demographic and socio-economic changes? And do such programs exist in Canada and Mexico?
    Mark Mather:
    Head Start funding has increased over the years but has not kept up with inflation and many argue it has not kept pace with the growing needs of America’s disadvantaged youth (see National Head Start Association at http://www.nhsa.org/). You may also be interested in the Urban Institute’s report called “Kids’ Share,” which provides an overview of federal funding for children’s programs. (see http://www.urban.org/publications/411699.html.)

    One of the big challenges for Head Start, from a demographic perspective, is the rapid growth of low-income children living in immigrant families.
    Katherine Scott:
    The international research is mounting, showing the value of early child development programs – for children and societies as a whole. Certainly early child development is a critical plank in poverty reduction strategies. Unfortunately, in Canada, we have been a laggard in this regard, certainly compared to European countries, with the notable exception of the province of Quebec. The availability of regulated child care is very uneven across the country. Some provinces are only just introducing kindergarten for 4 and 5 year-olds. There are “Head Start” style programs in many communities and on reserve for Aboriginal children, but the need certainly outstrips supply.

    In 2000, the federal government in Canada sets aside funds for early childhood development and subsequently announced plans to expand child care. With the change of government in 2006, these plans were shelved. A new child benefit was announced to assist with the cost of child care – but the amount is meager, poorly targeted, and the program itself has done nothing to expand supply or improve working conditions in the child care sector. Much remains to be done.

    For Canada, please see: Friendly, Terns, Beach and Turiano (2007), Early Childhood Education and Care in Canada, 7th edition. http://www.childcarecanada.org/ECEC2006/index.html
    Tracey Bushnik (2006), Child Care in Canada. http://www.statcan.ca/english/research/89-599-MIE/89-599-MIE2006003.pdf

    Nashieli Ramirez Hernandez:
    We don't have that kind of program in Mexico. Less than 8% of the child population (from Birth to three years) is covered by initial education. Pre-school education is predominantly (over 80%) state provided. In November, 2002, the Law of Obligatory Pre-schooling became oficial, not only makes it obligatory for the State to provide pre-school education services for children 3 to 6 years of age when that is demanded, but also makes it obligatory for parents to see that their children, of those ages, attend a public or private pre-school. The law sets a schedule for attaining universal enrolment: for children age 5 that should occur at the beginning of the 2004-5 school year, for age 4, in 2005-6, and for age 3, in the 2008-9 school year. It also states that pre-school teachers should have professional preparation. In the beginning of these years the government released [a report stating] that reaching that goal was nearly impossible, and made changes in the law, making only 4 and 5 years obligatory.

    If you want to have more inforation, Mexico, Canada and USA are part of the twenty-one countries that have volunteered to participate in the Thematic Review of Early Childhood Education and Care Policy, a project launched by the OECD’s Education Committee. These countries provide a diverse range of social, economic and political contexts, as well as varied policy approaches toward the education and care of young children, several reports from the review may be viewed on the project web site http://www.oecd.org/edu/earlychildhood.
    Sanghmitra S Acharya:
    Obesity is one of the major health concerns in N America. Given the current income inequalities among social/ethnic groups and high rates of child poverty; what couild be the mechanisms to address- (a) containing obesity among children and young adults?; (b) consequent health problems and provision of care; and (c)changing dietary pattern and content.
    Katherine Scott:
    Obesity and being overweight are emerging as a major concern throughout North America. Being overweight or obese during childhood can and does have a lifelong impact on health and quality of life. Researchers in each country are working to identify the best strategies for promoting healthy weight in children and youth, and preventing the development of chronic diseases associated with obesity such type 2 diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, arthritis, and cancer. What we do know is that individual- and population-level strategies are needed to tackle the complex social and environmental factors linked to obesity.

    Successful programs are dynamic, designed to meet the needs of specific population groups. Research shows that the promotion of breastfeeding, creating opportunities for regular physical activity, changing dietary patterns, and reducing the time children are engaged in passive activities like watching television are all important in reducing obesity. To this end, schools are key settings for programming. Existing programming, however, tends to focus on individual behaviour. There is also a critical need for more upstream, population-focused interventions that address issues such as food distribution networks, lack of opportunities for physical activities, community access to recreation.

    Some examples include:

    • Staple food-pricing policies that protect the price of food staples like milk and whole grain bread and make these foods more affordable for families with children;
    • Policies that support local farmers and provide low income families access to local farm produce;
    • Nutrition policies that support healthy food in schools and classroom education that encourages healthy eating behaviours and attitudes.
    • Access to recreation programs - and all the supports that make that happen.

    For additional information, see World Health Organization (2000) “Obesity: Preventing and Managing the Global Epidemic.” WHO Technical Report Series 894. Available at: http://www.who.int/bookorders/WHP/dartprt1.jsp?sesslan=1&codlan=1&codcol=10&codcch=894 For information on obesity in Canada, see Canadian Population Health Initiative (2006), Improving the Health of Canadians: Promoting Healthy Weights. Available at: http://secure.cihi.ca/cihiweb/dispPage.jsp?cw_page=PG_470_E&cw_topic=470&cw_rel=AR_1217_E

    Nashieli Ramirez Hernandez:
    The report “ Growing Up in North America: Child Health and Safety in Canada, the United States, and Mexico” www.childreninnorthamerica.org, points out that all three countries report that the rates of obesity among young people are rising rapidly. More than a quarter of children in each country are obese. You can also have information related to current policies and programs, lessons learned from current interventions, and potential public policy approaches, in the report “Joint U.S.–Mexico Workshop on Preventing Obesity in Children and Youth of Mexican Origin” available in the The National Academies Press web site (http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=11813#toc)
    Mark Mather:
    This is a real challenge in the U.S. because there are many structural and financial barriers for families—especially lower-income minority groups—to eating right and staying physically fit. We need to address physical fitness and healthy eating habits for families but we also need to provide affordable access to healthy foods.

    The Institute of Medicine conducted a study a few years ago and has several recommendations to address childhood obesity. You can view their report online at http://www.iom.edu/?id=25048.
    Bill Butz:
    It would seem useful to compare the wellbeing of children in the parts of the three countries that are geographically, culturally, and economically most similar. Accordingly, what do we know about the condition of children in the border counties of Canada and the U.S., and in the border counties of Mexico and the U.S.?

    Mark Mather:
    Good question. I don’t know that this has been attempted for counties along the northern U.S. border but the Annie E. Casey Foundation has done some research on kids living in counties bordering Mexico: http://www.aecf.org/upload/publicationfiles/sw3622h40.pdf

    Katherine Scott:
    To my knowledge, there hasn't been a project that looks at the well-being of children along the US - Canadian border, certainly not like the Border Kids Count project. There have been any number of environmental, economic, transportation and security studies of different border regions, for example, around the Great Lakes. But children haven't figured prominently in these.


    Nashieli Ramirez Hernandez:
    You can look for a overview of data on children living on the Southwest Border of the USA and Mexico's northern border region, in the Borders Kid Count Reports.
    http://www.aecf.org/KnowledgeCenter/PublicationsSeries/KCDatabookProds.aspx and www.lainfanciacuenta.org.mx
    Will:
    What is the impact of immigration on child well-being in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S.?
    Katherine Scott:
    International migration is shaping the futures of children across North America. In Canada, the scale of immigration is changing the face of the population. It is estimated that 20 percent of Canadians under age 18 are immigrants or the children of immigrant parents. In some of Canada